READ MORE: Indiewire Awards Season Spotlight 

For the past three years, the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature has gone to... the film everyone thought it was going to go to. "Searching For Sugar Man," "20 Feet From Stardom" and "Citizenfour" each claimed frontrunner status by early on, and kept said status all the way to the Oscar stage.  Is "Amy" this year's version of that? It certainly seems so, especially since it's the most awarded documentary of the year by a mile.

Below is Anne Thompson's take on how things might shake down in the race for best documentary. Check out Thompson on Hollywood's Oscar predictions page for more awards season analysis. Click here for more category breakdowns on Indiewire.

Nominees:
"Amy" (Asif Kapadia)
"Cartel Land" (Matthew Heineman) 
"The Look of Silence" (Joshua Oppenheimer)
"What Happened, Miss Simone?" (Liz Garbus)

"Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom" (Evgeny Afineevsky)

Predicted Winner: "Amy"
Potential Spoiler: "The Look of Silence"

WINNER: "Amy"


For more insight into the 2016 awards season, visit the Indiewire Awards Season Spotlight homepage here.