READ MORE: Indiewire Awards Season Spotlight 

The best actress race seems downright obvious compared to the wild, wild waters of best supporting actor, where Golden Globe winner Sylvester Stallone isn't a lock for the Oscar in the slightest. Stallone's biggest threat might be Tom Hardy, the up-and-coming icon who had his best year yet thanks to "Mad Max," "Legend" and "The Revenant." While these two seem like the ones to beat, it's important to not that Stallone missed out on the SAG nomination, leaving the door potentially open for Mark Rylance and Christian Bale.

Below is Anne Thompson's take on how things might shake down in the race for best supporting actor. Check out Thompson on Hollywood's Oscar predictions page for more awards season analysis. Click here for more category breakdowns on Indiewire.

Nominees:
Christian Bale ("The Big Short")
Tom Hardy ("The Revenant")
Mark Ruffalo ("Spotlight")
Mark Rylance ("Bridge of Spies")

Sylvester Stallone ("Creed")

Predicted Winner: Sylvester Stallone 
Potential Spoiler: Tom Hardy

WINNER: Mark Rylance

For more insight into the 2016 awards season, visit the Indiewire Awards Season Spotlight homepage here