Awards Roundup: Jackman Speaks, Adams Squeaks(?) and Looking Ahead To 2010

One forecaster decided to go out a limb in one of the two somewhat questionable acting categories (with Heath Ledger and Kate Winslet essentially assumed by most at this point), suggesting Amy Adams might shock for best supporting actress (where Penelope Cruz is the favorite). Tariq Khan, who has a pretty good track record,  notes that “an Oscars upset usually happens when two factors are in place: support for the presumed front-runner is softer than people realize and support for another nominee is stronger than people realize.” He then goes on to give as surprisingly convincing list of reasons why Adams applies.

The other contested acting race, best actor, gets InContention‘s John Foote waxes nostalgic for the 1974 and 2002’s races, discussing how the two-man race (in this case, Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke) can often give rise to a third party, such as in 2002 when Adrien Brody broke through Daniel Day-Lewis and Jack Nicholson’s supposed neck-and-neck-ness.  His suggested benefactor? Frank Langella or Richard Jenkins. Just not Brad Pitt.

Foote’s InContention colleague Kris Tapley pretty much calls it an Oscar season and sets some focus on next year instead. “I hinted at it two weeks ago, but I’m seriously over 2008,” he says. “I’ve been knee deep in my usual year-in-advance research and finally polished it off over the weekend. I’m even ready to unleash my first set of charts. I’m that eager to move on. And there are some exciting projects waiting in the wings.”

Tapley offers up 2009 possibilities (similar to Sasha Stone’s list on Variety last week), from Clint Eastwood’s “Mandela” to Rob Marshall’s “Nine” to Peter Jackson’s “The Lovely Bones.” 

Spout‘s Christopher Campbell took Tapley’s cue and rounded up some thoughts on the 2010 possibilities, most notably citing Jeff Wells’ suggestion that Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” might be in the mix.  While many of Campbell’s linkees suggest that’s impossible time wise, Ropes of Silicon notes: “This isn’t anything new for Spielberg who pulled a similar rush job on Munich in 2005 when he began principal photography in early July and the film debuted on December 23 that year and went on to earn $130 million worldwide and was nominated for five Oscars including Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay. Kushner also penned Munich with the aid of Eric Roth (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button).”

It’s also quite possible people have already seen some of the 2010 contenders. After all, at this point last year “The Visitor,” “Frozen River,” “In Bruges,” “Man on Wire” and “Happy-Go-Lucky” had all debuted at festivals.  indieWIRE covered events with two such possibilities at Berlin, particularly in the best actress category: “Cheri”‘s Michelle Pfeiffer and “An Education”‘s Carey Mulligan.

indieWIRE will continue extensive coverage of the two weeks leading up to the Academy Awards and Spirit Awards, offering daily profiles of nominees (like today’s Tia Lessin & Carl Deal, nominated for best documentary for “Trouble The Water”), predictions and these daily round-ups.