10 Things The Fall Fests May Tell Us About Awards Season

A scene from Steven Soderbergh's "The Informant!" Image courtesy of the Toronto International Film Festival.

The kick-off of the Venice Film Festival tomorrow marks the annual turning point for the fall awards season.  Over the next 19 or so days, Venice, Telluride this weekend and Toronto next week will offer both industry, and in Toronto’s case the public, a glance at dozens of films that may or may not factor into this year’s big race.  From new works by the Coen Brothers, Steven Soderbergh and Michael Moore, to films that could rocket out of nowhere to feature prominently during awards season, these fests should take us a few decent-sized steps away from the state of mostly ignorant speculation we’re currently in.

Granted, this year has already offered some exceptions.  Earlier fests like Sundance and Cannes have given us quite a bit of food for awards season thought, from “Precious” and “An Education” at Sundance to “Bright Star” and, as it turns out, “Inglourious Basterds,” at Cannes.  And that whole ten best picture deal has all of a sudden made the summer movie season a much more viable time for Oscar prognosticators to break out their blogs, with best picture talks including every well-reviewed-blockbuster-of-the-month, from “Star Trek” to “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” to “District 9.”  And while I personally feel those discussions were a big case of us getting ahead of ourselves, talk surrounding the best picture chances of “Basterds,” “Up” and “The Hurt Locker,” as well as performances such as Meryl Streep’s in “Julie & Julia,” are all completely warranted.

But now we are about to enter a whole other monster.  Distributors with light awards season slates (and there are many) may be madly searching through Toronto’s near-300-film-strong catalog in search of the next “Juno.” Buzz surrounding any of those aforementioned could get drowned out by shiny and new contenders. And even those newbies could find themselves in, and then out, of the race before the ink on their For Your Consideration ads has even dried (remember early last fall when everyone thought Kristin Scott Thomas was the frontrunner for “I’ve Loved You So Long”? Or when we thought “Rachel Getting Married” would get, you know, more than one nomination?). Awards season is upon us and it’s up to these next few weeks to get the ball rolling.

While there’s still loads of murky water left after these fests come and go - a laundry list of possibilities remain, from Rob Marshall’s “Nine” to Terrance Malick’s “The Tree of Life” to Peter Jackson’s “The Lovely Bones” to Clint Eastwood’s “Invictus” - it’s likely a respectable batch of unanswered questions will be no longer by September 19th. And instead of rambling on like a rabid awards geek for another six paragraphs, indieWIRE offers you ten such possibilities:

1. Are “Precious” and “An Education” the real deal?

From the moment they premiered at Sundance, doubts about these two films - both female coming-of-age stories, though the comparison can most certainly stop there - have been few and far between.  In fact, it seems both films have managed to continue buzz-building despite cautiously staying away from the festival circuit.  Lee Daniels’ “Precious” has only screened once - in Cannes - after its triumphant Park City debut, while Lone Scherfig’s “Education” screened in Berlin, Sydney and Brisbane, also waiting for Toronto to make another North American splash. At this point betting against either as they continue their carefully sketched routes to the Kodak Theater is not recommended.  But, Toronto’s public audiences will definitely be a good test for these titles, and should give a clearer indication as to how solid their stronghold really is. My prediction? These crowd-pleasers are made for festivals like Toronto, and I wouldn’t blame Carey Mulligan or Mo’Nique if they started practicing Oscar speeches in their Toronto hotel mirrors.

News » Oscar Shortlist Features » Burton MoMA News » Sundance '10

A scene from Francesca Gregorini and Tatiana von Furstenberg’s “Tanner Hall.” Image courtesy of the Toronto International Film Festival. 2. Can this female coming-of-age trend extend beyond those two films? In a recent interview with indieWIRE, Toronto co-director Cameron Bailey acknowledged the female coming-of-age trend this year (also including Andrea Arnold’s Cannes premiere “Fish Tank,” which I fear might have a tougher time with awards season, despite being worthy), and suggested two new additions coming from his festival: Francesca Gregorini and Tatiana von Furstenberg’s prep school-circa-today-set “Tanner Hall” and Jordan Scott’s boarding school-circa-1934-set “Cracks.”  Both are looking for North American distribution. My prediction? Considering I have no knowledge of either film beyond their synopses, I can’t say anything with remote confidence.  But, if one of these films is worthy of a major acquisition and awards campaign, I’d wager they’ll go “Hurt Locker” style and save it for 2010 to avoid “Precious” and “An Education.” 3. Is Michael Moore still capable of causing a stir? And can this equal a best picture nomination? Had this ten best picture deal gone down a while back, it’s likely Michael Moore would have factored into the race with either “Fahrenheit 9/11,” “Bowling For Columbine,” or both.  Which makes “Capitalism: A Love Story” a good bet for a documentary’s best hope at making use of the expanded Oscar pasture. But it’s also unclear if Mr. Moore still has the ability to make a cultural impact like he used to.  “Capitalism” - which explores the price America pays for its love of it - seems like it could feel dated.  A lot has happened since Moore finished production.  I mean, wouldn’t a re-issue of “Sicko” prove more timely? My prediction: Moore still rouses the crowds, but its quieter than usual, and talk of a best picture nomination dies quickly. -This article continues on the next page- Loading ... Which of the following films screening in Toronto and Venice do you think will get a best picture nod? Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans Bright Star Capitalism: A Love Story An Education Precious The Road A Serious Man A Single Man Up In The Air Whip It! Read & React: 10 Things The Fall Fests May Tell Us About Awards Season Page 1 of 2 Next Login to recommend this article » posted on September 1, 2009 Films to Snag Comments 1 hotconflict says on September 15, 2009 at 6:00am What is the Tree of Life. There is a lot of Interest in the Sefirot or Kabalah interpretation. What does Islam and many ancient sufi mystics have ot say about the Tree of Life. See Saleem Siddiqui in the New movie TREE oF LIFE with Brad Pitt and Sean Penn. http://www.hotconflict.com/blog/2008/06/mystical-connection-between-sufi-islam-and-jewish-kabalah—-tree-of-life.html 2 utahprime says on September 2, 2009 at 9:49pm There is no way that Streep’s buzz will be diminished by the festivals.  The role is unforgettable, she is way past due for Oscar and she has all the momentum going into Oscar season.  Also, her new film in December will help cement her continued buzz into taking home Oscar… 3 utahprime says on September 2, 2009 at 9:16pm I would advise Ms. Mulligan to hold off on preparing her Oscar speech.  There is the small matter of Meryl Streep who is clearly the frontrunner to take home the gold.  Sorry Carey, maybe next year…. Login to Leave a Comment »