By Peter Knegt | Indiewire September 17, 2013 at 1:29PM
6. "Rush" will get at least 5 nominations. Ron Howard's race car driver biopic "Rush" got almost unanimous praise out of Toronto, setting it up to be a major player in awards season (and a nice return to form for Howard after "The Dilemma"). How it fares at the box office this weekend will make it more clear just how major, but for now its safe to assume a handful of tech nominations and quite likely a best picture nod and one for Daniel Bruhl's supporting performance.
7. "The Fifth Estate" won't get any. Another filmmaker looking to return to awards season's good graces after making a poorly received detour (in this case "Twilight") was Bill Condon. But his "Fifth Estate," the Wikileaks biopic that opened Toronto, was pretty much DOA as far as Oscar buzz goes. It would be a huge surprise at this point if it could factor into any races.
8. Lupita Nyong'o will be nominated for best supporting actress in a race that could very well feature three black nominees. Another strong contender to emerge from the buzz surrounding "12 Years a Slave" is Kenyan actress (and filmmaker in her own right) Lupita Nyong'o. Giving a harrowing performance, Nyong'o is a pretty sure thing in the supporting actress category, which could feature a record three black nominees as Oprah Winfrey ("Lee Daniels' The Butler") and Octavia Spencer ("Fruitvale Station") are looking pretty good as well. Also of note: All three are in films from black filmmakers.
9. Nothing without distribution coming into Toronto is going to shake up this year's race (but could factor into next year's). A lot of major buys came out of Toronto -- "The Railway Man," "Bad Words," "Tracks," "Loveship Hateship," "The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby," "Under The Skin" -- but none of them are likely to shake up this year's already crowded race. Most if not all are suggestively heading for 2014 releases, which means we could be talking about a few of them a year from now.
10. Survival will be the dominant theme among this year's nominees. "12 Years a Slave," "Gravity," "Dallas Buyers Club" and arguably "Rush" are all continuing a clear trend in the awards season-headed films of 2013: Survival. It's a theme already present in Cannes' Oscar contender "All Is Lost" and one that will surely come again in "Captain Phillips" and "The Monuments Men." Everyone likes an overarching theme to the season, and this will be 2013's.
Check out Indiewire's latest chart of Oscar predictions here.
Peter Knegt is Indiewire's Senior Writer and awards columnist. Follow him on Twitter.