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For Your Consideration: Indiewire's Mid-Year Oscar Analysis

Photo of Peter Knegt By Peter Knegt | Indiewire July 6, 2012 at 12:44PM

It's been roughly four months since Indiewire's coverage of the mammoth 2010-2011 awards season came to an end. Our "For Your Consideration" column has lain dormant ever since, its most recent edition an advance stab at what might become of the next awards season. But with the Venice Film Festival and Toronto Film Festival just two months away, "next" is soon to be now. Thus, we welcome you to a special mid-year edition of our "For Your Consideration" column, which will run regularly beginning in September.
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"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
"Beasts of the Southern Wild"

It's been roughly four months since Indiewire's coverage of the mammoth 2010-2011 awards season came to an end. Our "For Your Consideration" column has lain dormant ever since, its most recent edition an advance stab at what might become of the next awards season. But with the Venice Film Festival and Toronto Film Festival just two months away, "next" is soon to be now. Thus, we welcome you to a special mid-year edition of our "For Your Consideration" column, which will run regularly beginning in September.

This focus of this particular column is not a preview of what's to come, but what we already know from the year's first six months whether via festival screenings or theatrical releases. Last year at this time, we called all of the following:

  • Christopher Plummer receives a best supporting actor nomination, and maybe wins.
  • Vanessa Redgrave receives a best supporting actress nomination, and maybe wins.
  • "Rango" is nominated for best animated feature.
  • "The Tree of Life" is nominated for best cinematography.
  • "Midnight in Paris" is nominated for best original screenplay, and maybe best picture.
  • Also potentially factoring in from Cannes are Michael Hazanavicius's "The Artist," Nicolas Winding Refn's "Drive," Lars von Trier's "Melancholia" and Lynne Ramsay's "We Need To Talk About Kevin," while from Sundance we have Drake Doremus' "Like Crazy," Sean Durkin's "Martha Marcy May Marlene," Dee Rees's "Pariah," and Jeff Nichols' "Take Shelter."


So we were wrong about Redgrave. But who wasn't? Most folks were predicting her to at least be nominated all the way through December. Her work in Ralph Fiennes' "Corionalus" -- which debuted at the 2011 Berlinale -- puts eventual winner Octavia Spencer's performance in "The Help" to shame. But in all likelihood, too few people ended up seeing "Corionalus" and she managed to lose out to the (deserved) likes of "Bridesmaids" actress Melissa McCarthy, a film we'd also seen by this time last year.  McCarthy was noted as a "decent shot" in the best supporting actress category in last year's column, and at the time even that felt ambitious. But let that be a lesson that critically acclaimed summer box office hits should never be counted out (it seems to me another M.McM -- Matthew McConaughey -- could end up this year's Melissa McCarthy for his fantastic work in "Magic Mike").

Magic Mike
Alex Pettyfer and Matthew McConaughey in "Magic Mike."

And clearly we could have been a bit more optimistic about "The Tree of Life," "Midnight in Paris" and -- most especially -- "The Artist." In large part due to a lack of worthy competition from the year's second half, these three films each score best picture and best director nominations, and the latter won both (in addition to best actor). While it was clearly well received when it debuted at Cannes last May, very few folks would have felt confident suggesting it would win best picture. After all, it was a French-produced silent film with no recognizable actors.

So with last year's prognosticatory shortcomings in mind, let's turn the conversation to 2012, a year that so far genuinely makes the first half of 2011 look like an Oscar goldmine. Cannes and Sundance -- which often offer quite a few Oscar-nominated films (though last year's Cannes batch was unrivaled in how many Oscar noms they churned out), both appeared to be considerably not-so-Oscar-friendly this year. Though -- as last year made clear -- films can unexpectedly recieve boosts later in the year.

As far as the best picture category goes, each festival offered two genuine possibilities: "Beasts of the Southern Wild" and "The Sessions" (formerly known as "The Surrogate") from Sundance, and "Moonrise Kingdom" and "Amour" from Cannes.  Michael Haneke's "Amour" is by far the longest shot of the four, and the idea of two Palme d'Or winners getting noms back-to-back is unprecendented. But people adore "Amour," and its definitely a strong possibility for a few other categories (screenplay, foreign language film and perhaps a lone director slot).