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by Peter Knegt
July 6, 2012 12:44 PM
22 Comments
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For Your Consideration: Indiewire's Mid-Year Oscar Analysis

Best Picture:
Safe Bets: None
Reasonable Maybes: "Beasts of the Southern Wild"; "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," "Moonrise Kingdom"
Dark Horses: "Amour," "The Avengers," "Ruby Sparks," "The Sessions"

Best Director
Safe Bets: None
Reasonable Maybes: Michael Haneke, "Amour"; Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Dark Horses: Wes Anderson, "Moonrise Kingdom"; Ben Lewin, "The Sessions"

Best Actor
Safe Bets: John Hawkes, "The Sessions"
Reasonable Maybes: None
Dark Horses: Paul Dano, "Ruby Sparks"; Jean-Louis Trintignant, "Amour"; Channing Tatum "Magic Mike"

Best Actress
Safe Bets: None
Reasonable Maybes: Quvenzhané Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"; Helen Hunt "Six Sessions"; Marion Cotillard, "Rust and Bone"
Dark Horses: Zoe Kazan, "Ruby Sparks"; Emmanuelle Riva "Amour"; Rachel Weisz "The Deep Blue Sea"; Michelle Williams "Take This Waltz"; Mary Elizabeth Winstead, "Smashed"

Best Supporting Actor
Safe Bets: None
Reasonable Maybes: William H. Macy, "The Sessions"; Matthew McConaughey, "Magic Mike"
Dark Horses: Michael Fassbender, "Prometheus"; James Gandolfini, "Killing Them Softly"; Dwight Henry "Beasts of the Southern Wild"; Bill Nighty, "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," Bruce Willis, "Moonrise Kingdom"

Best Supporting Actress
Safe Bets: Judi Dench, "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
Reasonable Maybes: Maggie Smith, "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
Dark Horses: Frances McDormand, "Moonrise Kingdom"

"Prometheus."

Best Original Screenplay:
Safe Bets: "Moonrise Kingdom"
Reasonable Maybes: "Amour"; "The Sessions"
Dark Horses: "Brave"; "Gimme The Loot"; "Magic Mike"; "Ruby Sparks"; "Take This Waltz"; "Your Sister's Sister"

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Safe Bets: "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Reasonable Maybes: "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
Dark Horses: "The Avengers"; "Killing Them Softly" "On The Road"

Best Animated Feature:
Safe Bets: "Brave"
Reasonable Maybes: "The Lorax"
Dark Horses: "Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted"

Best Foreign Language Film:
Safe Bets: None
Reasonable Maybes: "Amour"
Dark Horses: "Barbara"; "Beyond The Hills"; "The Hunt"; "Laurence Anyways"; "Rust and Bone"; "Tabu"; "War Witch"

Best Documentary Feature:
Safe Bets: None
Reasonable Maybes: "Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry"; ""Bully"; How To Survive a Plague"; "The Imposter"; "The Invisible War"; "The Queen of Versailles"
Dark Horses: "5 Broken Cameras"; "The Ambassador"; "China Heavyweight"; "Detropia"; "The House I Live In"; "Marina Abramovic: The Artist is Present; "Planet of Snail"; "Searching For Sugar Man"

Best Cinematography:
Safe Bets: None
Reasonable Maybes: "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Dark Horses: "Lawless"; "Moonrise Kingdom"; "Prometheus"

Best Film Editing:
Safe Bets: None
Reasonable Maybes: "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Dark Horses: "The Avengers"; "Moonrise Kingdom"; "Prometheus"; "The Raid: Redemption"; "The Sessions"

Best Art Direction:
Safe Bets: None
Reasonable Maybes: "Moonrise Kingdom"
Dark Horses: "Dark Shadows"; "Mirror Mirror"; "On The Road"; "Prometheus"; "Snow White and the Huntsman"

Best Costume Design:
Safe Bets: "Mirror Mirror"
Reasonable Maybes: None
Dark Horses: "Dark Shadows"; "The Deep Blue Sea"; "Moonrise Kingdom"; "On The Road"; "Snow White and the Huntsman"

Best Original Score:
Safe Bets: None
Reasonable Maybes: "Beasts of the Southern Wild"; "Moonrise Kingdom"
Dark Horses: "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"; "Brave"; "On The Road"; "Prometheus"; "Rust and Bone"; "The Sessions"

Best Original Song:
Safe Bets: None
Reasonable Maybes: None
Dark Horses: "Safe & Sound" (The Hunger Games)

Best Sound Mixing/Best Sound Editing:
Safe Bets: "The Avengers"
Reasonable Maybes: "Brave"; "Prometheus"
Dark Horses: "The Amazing Spiderman"; "Battleship"; "The Grey"; "The Hunger Games"; "Men In Black 3"; "Snow White and the Huntsman"

Best Visual Effects:
Safe Bets: "The Avengers"
Reasonable Maybes: "Prometheus"
Dark Horses: "The Amazing Spiderman"; "Battleship"; "The Hunger Games"; "John Carter"; "The Raid: Redemption"; "Snow White and the Huntsman"

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Safe Bets: None
Reasonable Maybes: "Dark Shadows"; "Men In Black 3"
Dark Horses: "The Avengers"; "Prometheus"; "Snow White and the Huntsman"

Peter Knegt is Indiewire's Senior Editor and awards columnist. Follow him on Twitter and on his blog.

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22 Comments

  • Ap | July 9, 2012 10:36 AMReply

    No screenplay nod for Safety Not Guaranteed?

  • paul | July 8, 2012 3:22 AMReply

    i'm sorry snow white and the huntsman and mirror mirror will be up for nothing. both those movies were horrible. if and that is a big if mirror mirror gets looked at for best costumes that is because eiko ishioka passed away this year. i think moonrise kingdom might take bp though.

  • Joe | July 8, 2012 12:30 AMReply

    Has anyone in The Playlist seen Paperboy? Does Nicole Kidman actually have a shot?

  • Josh | July 7, 2012 10:45 AMReply

    What about Nicole Kidman in The Paperboy??? She should be a lock for best actress, she was incredible!

  • Adrien | July 7, 2012 9:19 AMReply

    Next stop for 2012: The Dark Knight Rises, Les Misérables, Django Unchained, The Master and The Hobbit will be strong possibilities, also Wreck-It Ralph and Rise of the Guardians may be strong contenders Animated Feature. Moreover, I'd love to see Arcade Fire's "Abraham's Daughter" to get a nomination for best original song.

    This is going to be a good year.

  • penny | July 7, 2012 6:08 AMReply

    You forget about Anne Hathaway for " Les Miserables." She was looks absolutely brilliant in that teaser trailer.

  • jimbo | July 6, 2012 10:51 PMReply

    like the cannes committee, surprised you're leaving off lore. the reviews were startlingly good out of sydney and it'll surely be a push for music box. Laurence Anyways? really?

  • Jon J | July 6, 2012 3:17 PMReply

    Best Actor - hands down - is Omar Sy for The Intouchables
    Best Picture should include Polisse

  • Fernando | July 6, 2012 3:11 PMReply

    Not even a chance for Your Sister's Sister (Rosemarie Dewitt) or Friends With Kids (Jon Hamm)? Wishful thinking I guess.

  • Pat | July 6, 2012 3:09 PMReply

    Judi Dench is arguably a lead in 'Best Exotic Marigold Hotel'. I think Maggie Smith is a pretty safe bet in supporting, though, and the film could land in adapted screenplay.

    Also, is a film ineligible for Oscars if it played on VOD before a theatrical run? Might Take This Waltz be (unfortunately) out?

  • chris | July 7, 2012 11:35 AM

    'Take This Waltz' had a one week LA qualifying run before the VOD release. ;)

  • Blankets | July 6, 2012 2:36 PMReply

    There is no way 'Moonrise' gets in for Original Score. There is simply too much other non-original music used in the movie, as well as some original contributions from Mark Mothersbaugh outside of the great stuff from Desplat. The Academy shouldn't touch it with a ten-foot poll considering the distance they kept from 'There Will Be Blood' and others. Then again they awarded the likes of 'Babel' and 'The Artist' for reusing non-originals...

  • shelly | July 6, 2012 2:11 PMReply

    Channing Tatum "Magic Mike" - now you have lost all credibility

  • Dan Humphrey | July 7, 2012 12:59 PM

    Dargis at the NY Times called him "terrific", which makes for a pretty strong endorsement.

  • Peter Knegt | July 6, 2012 2:15 PM

    Ha, but only as a very dark horse. It's extraordinarily unlikely, but these kind of performances do occasionally make the conversation (John Travolta in "Saturday Night Fever," for example).

  • Shelly | July 6, 2012 2:15 PM

    Matthew McConaughey will for sure be nominated though.

  • shelly | July 6, 2012 2:08 PMReply

    None of the Sundance movies you mentioned from last year got Oscar noms

  • Peter Knegt | July 6, 2012 2:13 PM

    True - though I never said they did.

  • Ali | July 6, 2012 1:58 PMReply

    Quvenzhané Wallis is 8 years old and will be 9 on the day of the nominations. So, she wouldn't be the youngest nominee ever. She'd be the youngest Best Actress nominee ever and if she won, she'd be the youngest winner ever.

  • Peter Knegt | July 6, 2012 2:14 PM

    This has been corrected, thanks Ali... She'd be the youngest female nominee ever, and the second youngest overall after Justin Henry.

  • Rich T | July 6, 2012 1:18 PMReply

    Strong case for BEASTS. I hadn't thought of it, but it does make sense that it could garner a BP nomination. That said, I have a feeling that MOONRISE KINGDOM is a stone cold lock for a BP nomination. Just seems like the near universal praise and box office success lines up with the idea that it's Wes Anderson's 'time.'

  • Dan Humphrey | July 7, 2012 1:02 PM

    I agree on MK. The positive feelings for it just seem to grow stronger and stronger. I like it more now than I did the night I first saw it, and that seems a fairly common feeling among people I talk to: "It really grows on you."