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Celebrating 17 Years of Film.Biz.Fans.
by Peter Knegt
June 26, 2013 12:33 PM
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For Your Consideration: A Mid-Year Stab At The Oscar Race

Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke in "Before Midnight"
Best Picture:
Safe Bets: "Inside Llewyn Davis"
Reasonable Maybes: "Before Midnight"; "Fruitvale Station"; "All Is Lost"
Dark Horses: "The Immigrant"; "Mud"; "Nebraska"; "The Past"; "The Place Beyond The Pines"

Best Director
Safe Bets: None
Reasonable Maybes: Joel & Ethan Coen, "Inside Llewyn Davis"
Dark Horses: Richard Linklater, "Before Midnight"; Ryan Coogler, "Fruitvale Station"; JC Chandor, "All Is Lost"; Alexander Payne, "Nebraska"

Best Actor
Safe Bets: Robert Redford, "All Is Lost"
Reasonable Maybes: Oscar Isaac, "Inside Llewyn Davis"; Michael B. Jordan, "Fruitvale Station; "Bruce Dern, "Nebraska" (unless the latter goes supporting)
Dark Horses: Ethan Hawke, "Before Midnight"; Casey Affleck, "Ain't Them Bodies Saints"

Best Actress
Safe Bets: None
Reasonable Maybes: Marion Cotillard, "The Immigrant"; Julie Delpy, "Before Midnight"; Berenice Bejo, "The Past"
Dark Horses: Greta Gerwig, "Frances Ha"; Adele Exarchopuolos, "Blue Is The Warmest Color"; Rooney Mara, "Ain't Them Bodies Saints"; Shailene Woodley, "The Spectacular Now"

Best Supporting Actor
Safe Bets: None
Reasonable Maybes: Ben Foster, "Ain't Them Bodies Saints"; Matthew McConaughey, "Mud";
Dark Horses: Harrison Ford, "42"; Ryan Gosling, "The Place Beyond The Pines"; James Franco, "Spring Breakers"; Will Forte, "Nebraska"; John Goodman, "Inside Llewyn Davis"; Sam Rockwell, "The Way Way Back"

Best Supporting Actress
Safe Bets: Octavia Spencer, "Fruitvale Station"
Reasonable Maybes: None
Dark Horses: Melonie Diaz, "Fruitvale Station"; Carey Mulligan, "Inside Llewyn Davis"; Jane Squibb, "Nebraska"; Kristin Scott Thomas, "Only God Forgives"; Scarlett Johansson, "Don Jon"

Best Original Screenplay:
Safe Bets: "Fruitvale Station"; "Inside Llewyn Davis"
Reasonable Maybes: "Mud"; "Nebraska"; "The Past"; "Frances Ha"
Dark Horses: "All Is Lost"; "The Immigrant"; "The Place Beyond The Pines"

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Safe Bets: "Before Midnight"
Reasonable Maybes: None
Dark Horses: "Monsters University"; "The Spectacular Now"

Best Animated Feature:
Safe Bets: "Monsters University"
Reasonable Maybes: "Ernest & Celestine"
Dark Horses: "Epic"; "The Croods"; "The Congress"; "Escape From Planet Earth"

Best Foreign Language Film:
Safe Bets: None (you'd be a fool to call anything in this category so early)
Reasonable Maybes: "Blue Is The Warmest Color"; "The Past";
Dark Horses: "Like Father, Like Son"; "The Great Beauty"; "The Missing Picture"; "Child's Pose"; "Gloria"; "An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker"

Best Documentary Feature:
Safe Bets: None (this category is pretty tough to call too)
Reasonable Maybes: "Stories We Tell"; "Twenty Feet From Stardom"
Dark Horses: "The Act of Killing"; "Blood Brother"; "Blackfish"; "Call Me Kuchu"; "Cutie and the Boxer"; "Dirty Wars"; "God Loves Uganda"; "Leviathan"; "Valentine Road"; "We Steal Secrets"; "56 Up"

Peter Knegt is Indiewire's Senior Writer and awards columnist. Follow him on Twitter.


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  • Salty Bill | June 26, 2013 5:02 PMReply

    For a site devoted to Indie films, you spend too much time handicapping the Oscars. Is this a website or a tipsheet?

  • tom | June 26, 2013 1:36 PMReply

    What is Inside Llewyn Davis adapted from? Is Before Midnight considered an adapted screenplay? Why?

  • Teddy | August 3, 2013 1:28 AM

    Any sequel to any film, even if the first film is an original, is considered adapted. So "Before Sunrise" was an original screenplay, but "Before Sunset" and "Before Midnight" are adapted, and are considered adapted from "The characters in 'Before Sunrise.'"