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by Peter Knegt
November 6, 2012 1:23 PM
8 Comments
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For Your Consideration: An Early November Take On The Major Oscar Races

Anne Hathaway in "Les Miserables"
Best Supporting Actress:

By far the weakest of all the acting races is best supporting actress (so far at least, though there's few options waiting in the wings). Three women have essentially locked up nominations: former winners Sally Field ("Lincoln") and Helen Hunt ("The Sessions") and three time nominee Amy Adams ("The Master"). But none of them feel like winners. Which leaves everyone's eyes on the woman indeed waiting in the wings: Anne Hathaway. Her role as Fantine in "Les Miserables" could easily put her into frontrunner status here, if she and the film are indeed good. But that's a big "if." Interestingly enough, if Hathaway does indeed end up leading the race, both her and best actress contender (and current frontrunner) Jennifer Lawrence will have starred in a huge $400 million+ blockbuster earlier in the year (appropriately as Catwoman "The Dark Knight Rises" and Katniss in "The Hunger Games"), and then followed them up with an Oscar bait (winning?) performance at year's end.

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln 
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
 Maggie Smith,  The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Totally Unwarranted Winner Prediction: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

READ MORE: 2013 Oscar Predictions

Best Supporting Actor:
Like supporting actress, this race seems to all be waiting for one sight unseen performance to show itself: Leonardo diCaprio's in Quentin Tarantino's "Django Unchained." The actor has never won, and looks like he has a very meaty role as the villian in the film (though two Tarantino villains winning in this category in just three years?). But unlike Hathaway, he has a lot more competition to deal with: Alan Arkin ("Argo"), Robert DeNiro ("Silver Linings Playbook"), Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln"), Phillip Seymour Hoffman ("The Master"), William H. Macy ("The Sessions"), Matthew McConaughey ("Magic Mike") and Ewan McGregor ("The Impossible") are all -- to varying degrees -- in contention this year. Of them, Hoffman is probably the safest bet for a nomination and diCaprio's biggest competition for a win, if "Django Unchained" ended up being any good. It's a much bigger question mark than "Les Miserables," which seems like a standard big Oscar-bait musical. Quentin Tarantino, clearly, is much less predictable.

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo diCaprio, Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Totally Unwarranted Winner Prediction: Leonardo diCaprio, Django Unchained


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8 Comments

  • Jack | November 11, 2012 9:20 PMReply

    PICTURE:
    1. Les Miserables
    2. Argo
    3. Lincoln
    4. Silver Linings Playbook
    5. Life of Pi
    6. The Master
    7. Zero Dark Thirty
    8. Beasts of the Southern Wild

    DIRECTOR:
    1. Ben Affleck
    2. Tom Hooper
    3. Steven Spielberg
    4. Ang Lee
    5. Paul Thomas Anderson

    ACTOR:
    1. Daniel Day Lewis
    2. Joaquin Phoenix
    3. Denzel Washington
    4. John Hawkes
    5. Hugh Jackman

    ACTRESS:
    1. Jennifer Lawrence
    2. Quvenzhane Wallis
    3. Marion Cotillard
    4. Emmanuelle Riva
    5. Helen Mirren

    SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    1. Philip Seymour Hoffman
    2. Tommy Lee Jones
    3. Leonardo DiCaprio
    4. Robert DeNiro
    5. Alan Arkin

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    1. Anne Hathaway
    2. Helen Hunt
    3. Sally Field
    4. Amy Adams
    5. Maggie Smith

  • Harris | November 6, 2012 6:48 PMReply

    As someone who saw Amour at NYFF and loved it, I really can't see it in any respect being nominated for best picture. It's almost impossible for a foreign film to be nominated for an Best Picture; when was the last time it happened?

  • clark | November 6, 2012 6:29 PMReply

    Well, I might be the only one here, but don't you guys think The Hobbit can get some acting nods ? I know Sir Ian McKellen was nominated for this role once, but judging from the released material Martin Freeman looks pretty good as Bilbo Baggins

  • Ray | November 6, 2012 5:28 PMReply

    Your comment in Best Actress category about Emmanuelle Riva and Marion Cotillard being the first time two actresses nominated for foreign language films in the same year is incorrect; Jon is correct - but before the two he cited there was

    1966 - Anouk Aimee for A Man and a Woman (and) Ida Kaminska for The Shop on Main Street

    I guess I'm a little older.

  • felipe | November 6, 2012 3:48 PMReply

    Marion deserves the Oscar

  • Jon | November 6, 2012 3:26 PMReply

    There actually have been two foreign language actress performances nominated in the same year ... Marie Christine Barrault for Cousin Cousine and Liv Ullmann for Face to Face in 1977

  • Mark | November 6, 2012 2:44 PMReply

    What's your obsession with Affleck? He's the Peyton Manning and Tim Tebow of the film world. He gets praise for just showing up. The Master and Lincoln are better films hands down. Does Box Office really matter?

  • StevenBall | November 6, 2012 4:11 PM

    Affleck does have a track record. His last movie he directed The Town was pretty good - at least as good as The Fighter which got a lot more award recognition.