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For Your Consideration: An Early November Take On The Major Oscar Races

Photo of Peter Knegt By Peter Knegt | Indiewire November 6, 2012 at 1:23PM

All the major fall festivals have come and -- save AFI FEST, which is still ongoing -- gone, and the Oscar prognostication has come out in full force. And while there's still just over two months until the nominations are announced, it's finally fair game. Yes, there's a few major films that could still shake things up significantly (as discussed in last week's column), the vast majority of the films that will be nominated have been seen by many, either at festivals or in theatrical release. And it's quite likely we've already seen our best picture winner, too. The last time a film won best picture that hadn't had its world premiere somewhere by the end of October was way back in 2004 with "Million Dollar Baby."

Anne Hathaway in "Les Miserables"
Anne Hathaway in "Les Miserables"
Best Supporting Actress:
By far the weakest of all the acting races is best supporting actress (so far at least, though there's few options waiting in the wings). Three women have essentially locked up nominations: former winners Sally Field ("Lincoln") and Helen Hunt ("The Sessions") and three time nominee Amy Adams ("The Master"). But none of them feel like winners. Which leaves everyone's eyes on the woman indeed waiting in the wings: Anne Hathaway. Her role as Fantine in "Les Miserables" could easily put her into frontrunner status here, if she and the film are indeed good. But that's a big "if." Interestingly enough, if Hathaway does indeed end up leading the race, both her and best actress contender (and current frontrunner) Jennifer Lawrence will have starred in a huge $400 million+ blockbuster earlier in the year (appropriately as Catwoman "The Dark Knight Rises" and Katniss in "The Hunger Games"), and then followed them up with an Oscar bait (winning?) performance at year's end.

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln 
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
 Maggie Smith,  The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Totally Unwarranted Winner Prediction: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

READ MORE: 2013 Oscar Predictions

Leonardo DiCaprio in "Django Unchained"
Best Supporting Actor:
Like supporting actress, this race seems to all be waiting for one sight unseen performance to show itself: Leonardo diCaprio's in Quentin Tarantino's "Django Unchained." The actor has never won, and looks like he has a very meaty role as the villian in the film (though two Tarantino villains winning in this category in just three years?). But unlike Hathaway, he has a lot more competition to deal with: Alan Arkin ("Argo"), Robert DeNiro ("Silver Linings Playbook"), Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln"), Phillip Seymour Hoffman ("The Master"), William H. Macy ("The Sessions"), Matthew McConaughey ("Magic Mike") and Ewan McGregor ("The Impossible") are all -- to varying degrees -- in contention this year. Of them, Hoffman is probably the safest bet for a nomination and diCaprio's biggest competition for a win, if "Django Unchained" ended up being any good. It's a much bigger question mark than "Les Miserables," which seems like a standard big Oscar-bait musical. Quentin Tarantino, clearly, is much less predictable.

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo diCaprio, Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Totally Unwarranted Winner Prediction: Leonardo diCaprio, Django Unchained

This article is related to: Academy Awards, Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, The Master, Life Of Pi, Lincoln

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