Celebrating 17 Years of Film.Biz.Fans.
by Peter Knegt
February 20, 2013 12:33 PM
8 Comments
  • |

For Your Consideration: Final Oscar Predictions In Each and Every Category

'Django Unchained' Weinstein
Best Original Screenplay: There was a time when Mark Boal seemed like a sure thing in this category (hell, there was a time when Paul Thomas Anderson seemed like a sure thing in this category). But with "Zero Dark Thirty" slipping in Oscar buzz (and Anderson not even nominated for "The Master"), Boal is running a distant third behind Michael Haneke ("Amour") and Quentin Tarantino ("Django Unchained"). It's going to be a showdown between those two. Though Tarantino won back in 1995 for "Pulp Fiction," it seems reasonable to give the man #2 this time around (they seemingly almost did in 2010, but instead gave it to Boal). But then there's Haneke, who has never won but has three different opportunities to this year (here, best director and best foreign language film -- though the latter techically goes to the country of Austria). We're saying Tarantino, but it's a very either-or category for us.

Will win: "Django Unchained"
Could win: "Amour"
Should win: Anything but "Flight" would make me happy.

Best Adapted Screenplay: This category has turned into a genuine a three-way showdown between Tony Kushner, Chris Terrio and David O. Russell. Or has it? "Lincoln" seemed like the big favorite for a while, but then "Silver Linings" won the BAFTA and "Argo" won both the USC Scripter and the WGA Award. The latter now seems pretty unstoppable, making it less of a race than a category with a frontrunner and two potential spoilers.  I held on to a "Lincoln" prediction as long as I could but now I'm going for "Argo" (with "Silver Linings" perhaps more likely to spoil than "Lincoln").

Will win: "Argo"
Could win: "Silver Linings Playbook" or "Lincoln"
Should win: "Lincoln"

"Frankenweenie"
Best Animated Feature: For once, this category is quite the race. After years and years of assumed winners, a trio of Disney titles -- "Frankenweenie," "Brave"and "Wreck-It-Ralph" -- are all feasible winners. "Brave" won the Globe and the BAFTA and "Ralph" won the PGA and the Annie, but perhaps the idea of finally giving Tim Burton an Oscar will give "Frankenweenie" an edge as the other two cancel each other out? That's our very risky bet (perhaps our riskiest given its won almost nothing so far). Expect us to be wrong!

Will win: "Frankenweenie"
Could win: "Wreck-It-Ralph" or "Brave"
Should win: "Frankenweenie," but this is a very strong lineup.

You might also like:

8 Comments

  • jean vigo | February 24, 2013 2:45 PMReply

    "Django" looks like the original screenplay winner. (For me, it would be "Zero Dark Thirty" - just for the sheer work involved in research and spinning such stuff based on true events into something so dramatically effective - no easy feat for a writer).

    But, "Django" does straddle that line between "original" and pastiche. Let's be pragmatic. It is a much more obvious "homage" to other references. Every film is to some degree, but QT borrows very visibly.

    There needs to be a a separate category for his work - and I mean it in a good way. He IS the best "sampling/mash-up/hip-hop artist" of the film world.

  • Jason | February 21, 2013 5:14 PMReply

    As a movie website, I really thought you guys would know what you're talking about.

  • Meredith Fraser | February 20, 2013 2:53 PMReply

    WOW, this is literally the first set of predictions in the top 8 categories (pic, director, actress, supp. actress, actor, supp. actor, orig. screenplay, adapted screenplay) that I AGREE WITH COMPLETELY—your will wins and possible spoilers, yes, and SHOULD WINS especially! And I'm a slave to the Oscar race predictions. The only one I'm not sure about is Robert De Niro—I think (and hope) TLJ will edge him out, but it's really a toss of a coin, they're so close. But Hoffman deserves it, dammit!

    But overall, BRAVO, this article was a blast to read, and for your Oscar prediction cred and mine, I hope you're/we're right!!! (Still, all your "Should Wins" lining up with mine is what made this article so awesome and weirdly gratifying to know I'm not alone with my opinions. I nevvvvver post on message boards like this, btw, so the fact that I'm posting at all is a huge compliment to you!) Anyway, THANK YOU.
    -mcf

  • teri | February 20, 2013 1:53 PMReply

    LOL@your article and predix. Always with journos who knows everything, the personal commentary and "should win"'s without backing it up with anything impartial, which btw, in this case, I'm grateful for, makes me laugh and laugh.

  • Edward Copeland | February 20, 2013 5:34 PM

    An opinion as to who should win by definition can't be impartial. This isn't an article reporting a news event. It's the subjective take on the state of the race and what they think deserves the prize. It's more akin to criticism than journalism and criticism always is a subjective opinion. If it were just an objective recitation of facts, it'd be a plot summary.

  • Edward Copeland | February 20, 2013 1:42 PMReply

    Amy Adams should win? Really? I'm a fan of the actress, but I thought The Master gave her very little to do and this year supporting actress was the weakest category to fill with nominees. Look at the Spirits -- two of their nominees (Ann Dowd, Rosemarie DeWitt) are in no way supporting. Dowd is in practically every scene of Compliance from first frame to last and DeWitt, Emily Blunt and Mark Duplass all share about equal screentime in Your Sister's Sister. Honestly, I'm surprised there wasn't a bigger push behind the really strong and truly supporting performance of Jennifer Ehle in Zero Dark Thirty.

  • name | February 20, 2013 12:48 PMReply

    Riva yes, PLEASE!

  • Marcus Dunn | February 20, 2013 12:40 PMReply

    Team Megan Ellison (The Master and Zero Dark Thirty) !