Click to Skip Ad
Closing in...
Celebrating 17 Years of Film.Biz.Fans.
by Peter Knegt
February 20, 2013 12:33 PM
8 Comments
  • |

For Your Consideration: Final Oscar Predictions In Each and Every Category

Best Foreign Language Film: It's perhaps a silly proposition to ever assume anything about the category where "Departures" beat "The Class" and "The Secret In Their Eyes" beat "The White Ribbon," but come on: How could they not give this to Michael Haneke's "Amour." He's a legend, he's never won (and was aforementionedly snubbed for "Ribbon"), and the film got five nominations including best picture, best director, best actress and best original screenplay. No foreign language film nominated for both in this category and for best picture has ever failed to win the former, so if there's no amour for "Amour" here, it will be a massive upset.

Will win: "Amour"
Could win: "No" (but seriously, no)
Should win: "Amour"

"Searching for Sugar Man"
Best Documentary Feature: Sure, Malik Bendjelloul's "Searching For Sugar Man" feels like the frontrunner here. It's the only real box office hit, and is coming off wins with the PGA, WGA and DGA. But this category is notoriously hard to predict, and this year for the first time all Academy members were sent screeners of all the docs and can all vote in the category, which entirely changes voting patterns and gives this category no precedent. So while "Sugar Man" has the momentum, it's easy to see Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi's "5 Broken Cameras" or Dror Moreh's "The Gatekeepers" or David France's "How To Survive a Plague" or Kirby Dick's "The Invisible War" pushing through. For one, they all feel like much more "important" documentaries, which may or may not help them (last year's winner -- high school football doc "Undefeated" -- did not have that sense about it compared to its fellow nominees). Our guess, though -- and pretty much everyone else's -- is that "Sugar Man" wins in the end. But an upset is more possible than it looks.

Will win: "Searching For Sugar Man"
Could win: "The Gatekeepers" or "How To Survive a Plague"
Should win: They're all great.

Best Original Song: On the one hand, yes, the odds seem against Adele's Bond theme "Skyfall" winning the best original song statue. No Bond song ever has, and popular contemporary artists like Adele rarely ever win here. But this is no ordinary Bond song, or Bond film. Both are widely considered one of the best ever, and they come as Bond celebrates his 50th anniversary with a big tribute at the Oscars. That added with the fact that Adele is one of the most endearing, beloved and lauded musicians on the planet makes this a certainty.  Because really, how embarrassing would it be if they gave it to that mediocre song from "Les Miserables"?

Will win: "Skyfall"
Could win: "Everybody Needs A Best Friend" (but not really)
Should win: "Skyfall"

8 Comments

  • jean vigo | February 24, 2013 2:45 PMReply

    "Django" looks like the original screenplay winner. (For me, it would be "Zero Dark Thirty" - just for the sheer work involved in research and spinning such stuff based on true events into something so dramatically effective - no easy feat for a writer).

    But, "Django" does straddle that line between "original" and pastiche. Let's be pragmatic. It is a much more obvious "homage" to other references. Every film is to some degree, but QT borrows very visibly.

    There needs to be a a separate category for his work - and I mean it in a good way. He IS the best "sampling/mash-up/hip-hop artist" of the film world.

  • Jason | February 21, 2013 5:14 PMReply

    As a movie website, I really thought you guys would know what you're talking about.

  • Meredith Fraser | February 20, 2013 2:53 PMReply

    WOW, this is literally the first set of predictions in the top 8 categories (pic, director, actress, supp. actress, actor, supp. actor, orig. screenplay, adapted screenplay) that I AGREE WITH COMPLETELY—your will wins and possible spoilers, yes, and SHOULD WINS especially! And I'm a slave to the Oscar race predictions. The only one I'm not sure about is Robert De Niro—I think (and hope) TLJ will edge him out, but it's really a toss of a coin, they're so close. But Hoffman deserves it, dammit!

    But overall, BRAVO, this article was a blast to read, and for your Oscar prediction cred and mine, I hope you're/we're right!!! (Still, all your "Should Wins" lining up with mine is what made this article so awesome and weirdly gratifying to know I'm not alone with my opinions. I nevvvvver post on message boards like this, btw, so the fact that I'm posting at all is a huge compliment to you!) Anyway, THANK YOU.
    -mcf

  • teri | February 20, 2013 1:53 PMReply

    LOL@your article and predix. Always with journos who knows everything, the personal commentary and "should win"'s without backing it up with anything impartial, which btw, in this case, I'm grateful for, makes me laugh and laugh.

  • Edward Copeland | February 20, 2013 5:34 PM

    An opinion as to who should win by definition can't be impartial. This isn't an article reporting a news event. It's the subjective take on the state of the race and what they think deserves the prize. It's more akin to criticism than journalism and criticism always is a subjective opinion. If it were just an objective recitation of facts, it'd be a plot summary.

  • Edward Copeland | February 20, 2013 1:42 PMReply

    Amy Adams should win? Really? I'm a fan of the actress, but I thought The Master gave her very little to do and this year supporting actress was the weakest category to fill with nominees. Look at the Spirits -- two of their nominees (Ann Dowd, Rosemarie DeWitt) are in no way supporting. Dowd is in practically every scene of Compliance from first frame to last and DeWitt, Emily Blunt and Mark Duplass all share about equal screentime in Your Sister's Sister. Honestly, I'm surprised there wasn't a bigger push behind the really strong and truly supporting performance of Jennifer Ehle in Zero Dark Thirty.

  • name | February 20, 2013 12:48 PMReply

    Riva yes, PLEASE!

  • Marcus Dunn | February 20, 2013 12:40 PMReply

    Team Megan Ellison (The Master and Zero Dark Thirty) !