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by Peter Knegt
February 20, 2013 12:33 PM
8 Comments
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For Your Consideration: Final Oscar Predictions In Each and Every Category

Best Visual Effects: One of the surest things of night, and the most definite of the five Oscars we're predicting for "Life of Pi."

Will win: "Life of Pi"
Could win: "The Hobbit" (but that would be a very unexpected journey to the podium)
Should win: "Life of Pi"

"The Hobbit"
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: A race between "The Hobbit" and "Les Miserables," and is most definitely the best shot "The Hobbit" has at taking home an award... Though "Les Miserables" has the slight edge over it.

Will win: "Les Miserables"
Could win: "The Hobbit"
Should win: "The Hobbit"

Best Live Action Short: The short film races are always extremely tough to call -- especially now that, as with documentary feature, the entire Academy membership is eligible to vote for them. Though it definitely seems like the general consensus with regard to the live action category is that Shawn Christensen's "Curfew" is deservedly the film to beat here.

Will win: "Curfew"
Could win: "Death of a Shadow"
Should win: "Curfew"

"Paperman"
Best Animated Short: This race seems to be between two films: Disney character animator Minkyu Lee's "Adam and Dog" (which is made from money he saved while working at Disney, though Disney had no involvement) and actual Disney production, John Kahr's "Paperman." The latter won the Annie and will probably win here, but both are great and either could win.

Will win: "Paperman"
Could win: "Adam and Dog"
Should win: "Paperman" or "Adam and Dog" would be fine by me.

Best Documentary Short: Oddly the only one of the three short categories NOT open to voting by the entire Academy membership, the documentary short Oscar race is between five generally dire films -- topics include homelessness, aging and cancer. The standouts to me were Sean Fine and Andrea Nix's "Inocente" and Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan's "Mondays at Racine" (the former about a homeless immigrant, the latter about women with cancer who meet a beauty salon in Long Island). Whether that means either could win is tricky (this category is wildly unpredictable), but I'll wager its between the two, with the extraordinarily emotional "Mondays" having the edge.

Will win: "Mondays at Racine"
Could win: "Inocente"
Should win: Either.

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8 Comments

  • jean vigo | February 24, 2013 2:45 PMReply

    "Django" looks like the original screenplay winner. (For me, it would be "Zero Dark Thirty" - just for the sheer work involved in research and spinning such stuff based on true events into something so dramatically effective - no easy feat for a writer).

    But, "Django" does straddle that line between "original" and pastiche. Let's be pragmatic. It is a much more obvious "homage" to other references. Every film is to some degree, but QT borrows very visibly.

    There needs to be a a separate category for his work - and I mean it in a good way. He IS the best "sampling/mash-up/hip-hop artist" of the film world.

  • Jason | February 21, 2013 5:14 PMReply

    As a movie website, I really thought you guys would know what you're talking about.

  • Meredith Fraser | February 20, 2013 2:53 PMReply

    WOW, this is literally the first set of predictions in the top 8 categories (pic, director, actress, supp. actress, actor, supp. actor, orig. screenplay, adapted screenplay) that I AGREE WITH COMPLETELY—your will wins and possible spoilers, yes, and SHOULD WINS especially! And I'm a slave to the Oscar race predictions. The only one I'm not sure about is Robert De Niro—I think (and hope) TLJ will edge him out, but it's really a toss of a coin, they're so close. But Hoffman deserves it, dammit!

    But overall, BRAVO, this article was a blast to read, and for your Oscar prediction cred and mine, I hope you're/we're right!!! (Still, all your "Should Wins" lining up with mine is what made this article so awesome and weirdly gratifying to know I'm not alone with my opinions. I nevvvvver post on message boards like this, btw, so the fact that I'm posting at all is a huge compliment to you!) Anyway, THANK YOU.
    -mcf

  • teri | February 20, 2013 1:53 PMReply

    LOL@your article and predix. Always with journos who knows everything, the personal commentary and "should win"'s without backing it up with anything impartial, which btw, in this case, I'm grateful for, makes me laugh and laugh.

  • Edward Copeland | February 20, 2013 5:34 PM

    An opinion as to who should win by definition can't be impartial. This isn't an article reporting a news event. It's the subjective take on the state of the race and what they think deserves the prize. It's more akin to criticism than journalism and criticism always is a subjective opinion. If it were just an objective recitation of facts, it'd be a plot summary.

  • Edward Copeland | February 20, 2013 1:42 PMReply

    Amy Adams should win? Really? I'm a fan of the actress, but I thought The Master gave her very little to do and this year supporting actress was the weakest category to fill with nominees. Look at the Spirits -- two of their nominees (Ann Dowd, Rosemarie DeWitt) are in no way supporting. Dowd is in practically every scene of Compliance from first frame to last and DeWitt, Emily Blunt and Mark Duplass all share about equal screentime in Your Sister's Sister. Honestly, I'm surprised there wasn't a bigger push behind the really strong and truly supporting performance of Jennifer Ehle in Zero Dark Thirty.

  • name | February 20, 2013 12:48 PMReply

    Riva yes, PLEASE!

  • Marcus Dunn | February 20, 2013 12:40 PMReply

    Team Megan Ellison (The Master and Zero Dark Thirty) !