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by Peter Knegt
February 25, 2014 1:08 PM
6 Comments
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For Your Consideration: Final Oscar Predictions In Every Single Category (aka How To Win Your Oscar Pool!)

Photo credit: Richard Harbaugh / ©A.M.P.A.S.

It's time. After months and months of critics awards, Golden Globes, smear campaigns, Guild Awards, luncheons, cocktails and talk show appearances, the grand finale of awards season is just five days away. Which means it's probably time for us to offer up some final guesswork for how it will all go down.

For once, there is a big question mark looming over how Oscar night will end (three films all have genuine chances at winning Best Picture), but there really aren't too many question marks to keep us excited along the way.  The other major races -- Best Drector and the acting categories -- all have strong frontrunners, while the vast majority of the overall 24 Oscars seem just as predictable (save foreign language film and documentary feature, arguably the night's biggest nail-biters). But hey, you never know. Maybe Oscar voters will take a rare opportunity to surprise us. Just don't look for too much risk-taking in our predictions, which largely play it safe in a game where playing it safe usually pays off. We'll know for sure soon enough, but in the meantime, here's our attempt at helping you win your Oscar Pool:

Fox Searchlight "12 Years a Slave."
Best Picture: "Gravity" vs. "12 Years a Slave." That's been the narrative we've heading into for quite some time, which shares commonalities with the "Avatar" vs. "The Hurt Locker," "Hugo" vs. "The Artist" and "Life of Pi" vs. "Argo" showdowns that met the last three years (an expensive, 3D critical and commercial hit versus a smaller film tackling history in one way or another)... History won all three times, but this year is clearly closer than ever. The two films historically tied for the PGA top honors, which just goes to show how tight this is. Add in "American Hustle," which has received a ton of love from the precursors too (it won the SAG ensemble and New York Critics prize), and we got ourselves a bonafide three-way race. Unless something truly shocking happens, one of these three films is winning Best Picture, and I've been going back and forth between "12 Years" and "Gravity" as my pick... I've finally (and with minimal confidence) landed on the former, but frankly, am just excited to be this uncertain so late in the race.

Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Could win: Gravity
Should win: Her

Best Director: This is much little less of a question mark than best picture. While "American Hustle," "Gravity" and "12 Years a Slave" are as noted battling it out for that prize, "Gravity" director Alfonso Cuaron has won pretty much every prize around in this category, and if he loses it will be a pretty major upset. If anyone can pull that off, though, it's Steve McQueen. I just wouldn't recommend betting on it.

Will win: Alfonso Cuarón
Could win: Steve McQueen
Should win: Alfonso Cuarón

Best Actor: In one of truly the most crowded Best Actor races in recent memory, Chiwetel Ejiofer, Matthew McConaughey, Leonardo DiCaprio, Bruce Dern and Christian Bale ending up making the cut, while Robert Redford, Tom Hanks Oscar Isaac, Forest Whitaker and Joaquin Phoenix -- who could have made an awesome lineup themselves -- did not. And the race for the win has been a lot less interesting than the race to get nominated: Matthew McConaughey dominated the precursors, and seems poised to win his first Oscar. Though Leonardo DiCaprio and Chiwetel Ejiofor both stand outside chances at upsetting, with the former getting some considerable last minute heat and the latter benefiting from a BAFTA win (where McConaughey notably was not nominated). So while that means McConaughey is probably a little more vulnerable to an upset than some of the other frontrunners, I'm still pretty sure he's walking away with this.

Will win: Matthew McConaughey
Could win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Should win: Chiwetel Ejiofor

Cate Blanchett and Sally Hawkins in "Blue Jasmine."
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett has been poised to take home this award since the day "Blue Jasmine" was released, and she's still holding on nicely after wins from SAG, the Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. Had Amy Adams not been nominated, it would basically be a 99.99% done deal. But Adams -- the only nominee here who hasn't won -- gives this race a very (very) slight chance at an upset, especially given a vote for Blanchett might seem like a vote for Woody Allen in light of the recent controversy facing the director. But I still cannot imagine that pulling too many votes away from Blanchett, who gave a performance almost nobody has anything bad to say about. It's as far as I'm concerned, one of the night's surest things.

Will win: Cate Blanchett
Could win: Amy Adams
Should win: Cate Blanchett

6 Comments

  • John S | March 2, 2014 3:25 PMReply

    If you don't see what's so great about Jared Leto's performance I'll just go ahead and assume you slept through the movie. Seriously? The f--k outta here with that pedantic ish.

  • Joe H. | March 1, 2014 1:41 PMReply

    I agree that 12 Years deserves sweep the acting categories. Ejiofor, Fassbedner, and Nyong'o all deserve to win in my opinion. Sadly, it looks like none of them will. I'm still predicting McConaughey, Leto, and Lawrence simply because that's how it looks like it'll go down. I'll be pleasantly surprised if I'm wrong.

  • Felipe | February 26, 2014 8:24 AMReply

    I understand you love 12 Years A Slave, it's a great movie, but Chiwetel, Lupita and Fassbender don't deserve to win. They are good, but there are better actors in all categories. In my opinion:

    Should win: 12 Years A Slave, Alfonso Cuarón, Matthew McConaughey, Cate Blanchett, Barkhad Abdi (because Daniel Brühl is not here) and Jennifer Lawrence or June Squibb.

  • John C. King | February 25, 2014 5:35 PMReply

    I hope "Helium" wins in Live Action Short. Also rooting for JennLaw, "12 Yrs a Slave" Pic & editing.

  • Jules | February 25, 2014 1:47 PMReply

    Jennifer Lawrence has attended both the GG and the SAGS as well as promoted AH right on the heels of promoting Catching Fire...then went back to work (which is also why Lawrence wasn't at The BAFTA'S) because the schedule is apparently extremely tight. So, I wouldn't say that Lawrence doesn't want the award...it's that Lawrence has to work.

    I hope either Jennifer lawrence wins or, if not Lawrence, then June Squibb.

  • James | February 26, 2014 2:20 AM

    Thanks for this comment. Seems like Indie wire is desperate to give Lupita the Oscar...even at the expense of putting down Jennifer Lawrence. Lupita should be grateful that she got an oscar nomination because IMO, it's an achievement on its own. Several new actresses gave better performances (Adele and Lea Seydoux in Blue is the warmest colour, Brie Larson in Short term 12 etc.) but weren't recognised by the Academy. If lupita eventually wins, big congrats to her (and I think she's deserving though Jlaw was better in terms of performance). But trying to make it look as if the whole idea of winning awards is less meaningful to Jennifer with silly exanples just to pave way for her competitors is ridiculous!