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by Peter Knegt
January 8, 2013 1:22 PM
25 Comments
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For Your Consideration: Final Predictions For The Most Unpredictable Oscar Nominations In Years

Best Actress:
Early on in the season, it had been suggested that the best actress race was the weakest in years, and a trio of women whose films premiered at festivals earlier in the year (Marion Cotillard, Emmanuelle Riva, Quvenzhane Wallis) seemed like the only competition. But then came "Silver Linings Playbook," which offered a bigger role for Jennifer Lawrence than some thought (and she nailed every second of it). And a month or so later, news that Jessica Chastain was not only the lead in "Zero Dark Thirty," and that she was pretty damn awesome in it.  Lawrence and Chastain are now the locked frontrunners and the only surefire nominees. Six women all stand totally reasonable shots at joining them, and it's a very tough call to say who pulls it off. Naomi Watts seems like the most likely, and though Riva didn't pop up with the Globes or SAG, she has some very big fans and it's hard to imagine such an unwarranted snub.  And then there's Wallis, Cotillard, Helen Mirren and Rachel Weisz all in contention for slot #5. I say Cotillard (she got Globe and SAG and has been aggressively campaigning), but with minimal confidence.

The predicted nominees (in alphabetical order):
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Naomi Watts, The Impossible


The spoilers (in order of spoil-potential):
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea


The shoulda-been-a-contender (but never gonna happen):
Elle Fanning, Ginger and Rosa

"The Master."
Best Actor:
Probably the tightest of all the acting races, the Best Actor category basically boils down to six men: Bradley Cooper, Daniel Day-Lewis, John Hawkes, Hugh Jackman, Joaquin Pheonix and Denzel Washington.

Day-Lewis remains the frontrunner and arguably the only 100% lock, with the rest of them all at least slightly vulnerable to getting left out.  The only one without a SAG nom, it makes sense to assumed Phoenix is the most vulnerable. Still, I'm betting what is clearly a staggering performance gets in despite Phoenix's open acknowledgment that he doesn't care too much for awards (to say the least), leaving Cooper Oscar nomination-free.

The predicted nominees (in alphabetical order):
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserable
s
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

The spoilers (in order of spoil-potential):
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour


The shoulda-been-a-contender (but never gonna happen):
Denis Lavant, Holy Motors

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25 Comments

  • brenda | January 13, 2013 11:18 PMReply

    the golden globes are shit. its all about who is the most popular not the quality of the director or the movie.

  • Rob | January 10, 2013 9:31 AMReply

    Never say never! Benh Zeitlin got nominated!

  • Matt-S | January 9, 2013 6:38 AMReply

    I think we'll have a surprise in the Best Picture and Best Director race, and the surprise could be The Master. Remember last year with The Tree of Life? (OK last year wasn't a strong year like this year, but I'd be happy if PTA got two noms instead of only one)

    Agree on every nom in the Best Actress category. Not so much in the Best Actor one...
    Mine would be:
    - Bradley Cooper
    - Daniel Day-Lewis
    - Hugh Jackman
    - Joaquin Phoenix
    - Jean-Louis Trintignant
    With Jackman being the weakest one.

    The Avengers won't get a nom, at least I hope so.

  • Hari | January 8, 2013 11:59 PMReply

    If Bradley Cooper ISN'T nominated it would be the snub of all snubs. Cooper gave the best performance of any actor in 2012, and has been nominated for everything. Of the leading men, I'm hoping its someone like John Hawkes or Denzel who doesn't make the cut. Cooper is absolutely Oscar worthy and gave the performance of a lifetime in Silver Linings.

  • spassky | January 9, 2013 11:38 AM

    This sounds like the observation of someone who has not seen many films in 2012.

    Cooper was fine, really good, but his performance was not superlative in any sense and has already received the amount of praise it deserves to receive.

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  • BOO | January 8, 2013 7:12 PMReply

    I feel The Master has a better chance than Amour and definitely Skyfall. Also, I think Hooper has a better chance than Tarantino, and I see no possibility of Haneke being nominated.

  • serpico | January 8, 2013 7:00 PMReply

    Since I'm all nuts about Phoenix's performance, thank you for including him.

  • tania | January 8, 2013 5:24 PMReply

    Quvenzhané Wallis is overrated

  • Paul | January 8, 2013 4:21 PMReply

    No nomination for Sound Mixing and Editing for The Dark Knight Rises?

  • Filipe Coutinho | January 8, 2013 3:24 PMReply

    In the foreign film category, I would argue in favor of Miguel Gomes' Tabu, one of the most well directed and original films of the last decade. It's been getting incredible reviews in the film festival world, mainly Europe, and with good reason. It's a phenomenal cinematic achievement.

  • Filipe Coutinho | January 8, 2013 7:16 PM

    It played in Film Forum for more than a week before the end of 2012. Isn't that the main requirement to be nominated?

  • Peter Knegt | January 8, 2013 5:01 PM

    It's an amazing film, but not eligible here.

  • Filipe Coutinho | January 8, 2013 3:23 PMReply

    In the foreign film category, I would argue in favor of Miguel Gomes' Tabu, one of the most well directed and original films of the last decade. It's been getting incredible reviews in the film festival world, mainly Europe, and with good reason. It's a phenomenal cinematic achievement.

  • Filipe Coutinho | January 8, 2013 3:22 PMReply

    In the foreign film category, I would argue in favor of Miguel Gomes' Tabu, one of the most well directed and original films of the last decade. It's been getting incredible reviews in the film festival world, mainly Europe, and with good reason. It's a phenomenal cinematic achievement.

  • david | January 8, 2013 2:47 PMReply

    So you're actually predicting that of the 20 acting nominations exactly 2 of them will be first time nominees. Not only has that never happened, it's 3 fewer than the current record for fewest first time acting nominees in an Oscar year. I'm predicting that along with your picks Jackman and Riva we'll also see Tritignant, Wallis,Eddie Redmayne, Dwight Henry, Ann Dowd, and Samantha Barks score acting noms. 8 first timers is about the norm.

  • BOO | January 8, 2013 7:17 PM

    WOOOOW. 8 is not happening. I can guarantee you that out of your extra picks there Wallis is the only one with a good chance. One of the others may score a surprise nom, but that's it.

  • Peter Knegt | January 8, 2013 2:55 PM

    This year just won't bet the norm. Wallis has a very, very good shot, as does Bradley Cooper. But we'll see 4 first timers max.

  • Harry | January 8, 2013 2:42 PMReply

    The fact that Jack Black in "Bernie" is not really showing up on any prediction sites is a shame. His performance was absolutely fantastic.

    What about Oslo, August 31st for best foreign pic?

  • david | January 8, 2013 3:06 PM

    Only time will tell. A maximum of 4 first timers is really pushing it. Most actors who win Oscars do it on their first nomination and the vast majority of actors who get nominated only get nominated once. Good luck with your picks!

  • Peter Knegt | January 8, 2013 2:55 PM

    A shame but not surprising. It's not exactly up Oscar's alley. And Oslo was not eligible.

  • Peter Knegt | January 8, 2013 2:55 PM

    A shame but not surprising. It's not exactly up Oscar's alley. And Oslo was not eligible.

  • Shelly | January 8, 2013 1:55 PMReply

    You had me until the beasts score before the master score. Just no. Fun read otherwise.

  • Lucas | January 8, 2013 1:32 PMReply

    In alphabetical order Jessica Chastain appears before Marion Cotillard because "h" is before that "o".

    But anyway I hope Marion Cotillard be nominated for Rust and Bone