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by Peter Knegt
January 8, 2013 1:22 PM
25 Comments
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For Your Consideration: Final Predictions For The Most Unpredictable Oscar Nominations In Years

"Les Miserables."
Best Supporting Actress:

In a year full of extremely strong races, best supporting actress stands out as quite the opposite. Anne Hathaway -- who has 99.9% already won this award -- is in, as are Sally Field and Helen Hunt. Then it gets murky, with Amy Adams, Judi Dench, Maggie Smith, Ann Dowd and Nicole Kidman the major threats for the last two slots (although the fact that Kidman is even in this conversation right now is the biggest surprise of awards season so far). Maybe there will be an out-of-nowhere surprise (a category this weak is ripe for it), but I'm calling Adams and Dench, with the British voting bloc helping the latter become the first acting nominee ever for a James Bond film.

The predicted nominees (in alphabetical order):
Amy Adams, The Master
Judi Dench, Skyfall
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions


The spoilers (in order of spoil-potential):
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel


The shoulda-been-a-contender (but never gonna happen):
Rosemarie DeWitt, Your Sister's Sister

Leonardo DiCaprio in 'Django Unchained'
Best Supporting Actor:
Honestly, this might be the most crowded, remarkable acting race in any category in perhaps the past decade.  Roughly 10 men are still in this race, and in any other year they'd all be shoo-ins. But not this year.  This year has brought us Robert DeNiro, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones, Alan Arkin, Leonardo DiCaprio, Christoph Waltz, Javier Bardem, Matthew McConaughey and Samuel L. Jackson all doing some of their best work ever (three of them in the same movie), alongside breakout performances from Eddie Redmayne and Dwight Henry. Redmayne and Henry are long shots, but the rest of them are all feasible. Many are assuming Arkin, DeNiro, Hoffman and Jones (all previous winners) are safe, with the rest battling for the last slot. But I'd wager it's not as simple as that -- and that this category could offer Thursday's mornings most unexpected acting lineup. My extremely shaky bet (the shakiest of them all, but why not go for it) is that DeNiro gets left out in favor of Waltz and McConaughey, but in truth I could offer up 10 other scenarios and nearly equal that confidence.

The predicted nominees (in alphabetical order):
Alan Arkin, Argo
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

The spoilers (in order of spoil-potential):
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained
Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild


The shoulda been a contender (but never gonna happen):
Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Check out the next page for the rest of categories, sans commentary.

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25 Comments

  • brenda | January 13, 2013 11:18 PMReply

    the golden globes are shit. its all about who is the most popular not the quality of the director or the movie.

  • Rob | January 10, 2013 9:31 AMReply

    Never say never! Benh Zeitlin got nominated!

  • Matt-S | January 9, 2013 6:38 AMReply

    I think we'll have a surprise in the Best Picture and Best Director race, and the surprise could be The Master. Remember last year with The Tree of Life? (OK last year wasn't a strong year like this year, but I'd be happy if PTA got two noms instead of only one)

    Agree on every nom in the Best Actress category. Not so much in the Best Actor one...
    Mine would be:
    - Bradley Cooper
    - Daniel Day-Lewis
    - Hugh Jackman
    - Joaquin Phoenix
    - Jean-Louis Trintignant
    With Jackman being the weakest one.

    The Avengers won't get a nom, at least I hope so.

  • Hari | January 8, 2013 11:59 PMReply

    If Bradley Cooper ISN'T nominated it would be the snub of all snubs. Cooper gave the best performance of any actor in 2012, and has been nominated for everything. Of the leading men, I'm hoping its someone like John Hawkes or Denzel who doesn't make the cut. Cooper is absolutely Oscar worthy and gave the performance of a lifetime in Silver Linings.

  • spassky | January 9, 2013 11:38 AM

    This sounds like the observation of someone who has not seen many films in 2012.

    Cooper was fine, really good, but his performance was not superlative in any sense and has already received the amount of praise it deserves to receive.

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  • BOO | January 8, 2013 7:12 PMReply

    I feel The Master has a better chance than Amour and definitely Skyfall. Also, I think Hooper has a better chance than Tarantino, and I see no possibility of Haneke being nominated.

  • serpico | January 8, 2013 7:00 PMReply

    Since I'm all nuts about Phoenix's performance, thank you for including him.

  • tania | January 8, 2013 5:24 PMReply

    Quvenzhané Wallis is overrated

  • Paul | January 8, 2013 4:21 PMReply

    No nomination for Sound Mixing and Editing for The Dark Knight Rises?

  • Filipe Coutinho | January 8, 2013 3:24 PMReply

    In the foreign film category, I would argue in favor of Miguel Gomes' Tabu, one of the most well directed and original films of the last decade. It's been getting incredible reviews in the film festival world, mainly Europe, and with good reason. It's a phenomenal cinematic achievement.

  • Filipe Coutinho | January 8, 2013 7:16 PM

    It played in Film Forum for more than a week before the end of 2012. Isn't that the main requirement to be nominated?

  • Peter Knegt | January 8, 2013 5:01 PM

    It's an amazing film, but not eligible here.

  • Filipe Coutinho | January 8, 2013 3:23 PMReply

    In the foreign film category, I would argue in favor of Miguel Gomes' Tabu, one of the most well directed and original films of the last decade. It's been getting incredible reviews in the film festival world, mainly Europe, and with good reason. It's a phenomenal cinematic achievement.

  • Filipe Coutinho | January 8, 2013 3:22 PMReply

    In the foreign film category, I would argue in favor of Miguel Gomes' Tabu, one of the most well directed and original films of the last decade. It's been getting incredible reviews in the film festival world, mainly Europe, and with good reason. It's a phenomenal cinematic achievement.

  • david | January 8, 2013 2:47 PMReply

    So you're actually predicting that of the 20 acting nominations exactly 2 of them will be first time nominees. Not only has that never happened, it's 3 fewer than the current record for fewest first time acting nominees in an Oscar year. I'm predicting that along with your picks Jackman and Riva we'll also see Tritignant, Wallis,Eddie Redmayne, Dwight Henry, Ann Dowd, and Samantha Barks score acting noms. 8 first timers is about the norm.

  • BOO | January 8, 2013 7:17 PM

    WOOOOW. 8 is not happening. I can guarantee you that out of your extra picks there Wallis is the only one with a good chance. One of the others may score a surprise nom, but that's it.

  • Peter Knegt | January 8, 2013 2:55 PM

    This year just won't bet the norm. Wallis has a very, very good shot, as does Bradley Cooper. But we'll see 4 first timers max.

  • Harry | January 8, 2013 2:42 PMReply

    The fact that Jack Black in "Bernie" is not really showing up on any prediction sites is a shame. His performance was absolutely fantastic.

    What about Oslo, August 31st for best foreign pic?

  • david | January 8, 2013 3:06 PM

    Only time will tell. A maximum of 4 first timers is really pushing it. Most actors who win Oscars do it on their first nomination and the vast majority of actors who get nominated only get nominated once. Good luck with your picks!

  • Peter Knegt | January 8, 2013 2:55 PM

    A shame but not surprising. It's not exactly up Oscar's alley. And Oslo was not eligible.

  • Peter Knegt | January 8, 2013 2:55 PM

    A shame but not surprising. It's not exactly up Oscar's alley. And Oslo was not eligible.

  • Shelly | January 8, 2013 1:55 PMReply

    You had me until the beasts score before the master score. Just no. Fun read otherwise.

  • Lucas | January 8, 2013 1:32 PMReply

    In alphabetical order Jessica Chastain appears before Marion Cotillard because "h" is before that "o".

    But anyway I hope Marion Cotillard be nominated for Rust and Bone