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For Your Consideration: Indiewire Predicts The Oscar Precursors, Part 2

Photo of Peter Knegt By Peter Knegt | Indiewire December 6, 2011 at 1:13PM

With the first week of awards announcements behind us (check out our comprehensive guide here), it's time to look at round two.
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Save The Dates: Here's the 2011-12 Awards Season Calendar

With the first week of awards announcements behind us (check out our comprehensive guide here), it's time to look at round two.

Each announcement will bring shifts in buzz and another spate of speculation regarding the alleged ultimate prize of them all: Oscar (check out an updated list of predictions for those awards here).

With all that in mind, here's the second part of a handy guide to some of the upcoming ceremonies and announcements (check out the first part here, though all of the awards listed have already been announced).

December 11

Indiewire's Prediction for Best Picture: "The Artist"
Indiewire's Prediction for Best Picture: "The Artist"

Los Angeles Film Critics Awards

Last Year's Big Winners: David Fincher's "The Social Network" took picture and director, though "Carlos" director Olivier Assayas tied with Fincher for the latter. They were also much more world cinema-minded than the New York critics group, giving acting wins to Kim Hye-Ja ("Mother") and Niels Arestrup ("A Prophet").

How This Year Could Shake Down: With a full two weeks in between their decision and that of their New York counterparts (which was controversially moved up to late November this year), there's an opportunity for the LA group to go their own way (and for them to actually see all of 2011's releases). The predictable scenarios would see either "The Artist" (considering its Hollywood history theme) or "The Descendants" (the LA critics love them some Alexander Payne, given "About Schmit" and "Sideways" both taking their top prize), but there's also cases to be made for "Hugo," "The Tree of Life," and "Drive" or perhaps even acclaimed Iranian film "A Separation" taking the top prize. With that in mind, here's some guesswork (which goes more for the predictable scenario):

Best Picture: The Descendants
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Best Actress: Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
Best Supporting Actor: Albert Brooks, Drive
Bes Supporting Actress: Carey Mulligan, Shame & Drive
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Screenplay: Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life
Best Documentary: The Interrupters
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation
Best Animated Film: The Adventures of Tintin

December 13

Critics Choice Award Nominations

Last Year's Big Winners: David Fincher's "The Social Network" took picture and director, while the same acting quarter that nabbed Oscars - Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale and Melissa Leo - took honors here, too.

How This Year Could Shake Down: The Critics' Choice Awards (or the Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards, as they are officially known), generally tend toward more mainstream fare than other critics' organizations, and also have a full-fledged nomination process followed by a ceremony that announces the winners. The nominations will be announced December 13, followed by a ceremony on January 12, 2012.

Whatever ends up happening, expect it to be an excellent window into where Oscar is heading. Last year, the Critics' Choice nominations correctly predicted all but one best picture nominee ("The Kids Are All Right"), and all but two acting nominees (Javier Bardem and John Hawkes). Though aiding in that prediction success rate is the fact that the Critics' Choice have six acting nominees.

Here's a rundown of how it might play out in some major categories (which is quite similar to our Oscar predictions):

Best Picture: The Artist, The Descendants, Drive, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, War Horse

Best Director: Woody Allen, Michel Hazanavcius, Alexander Payne, Nicolas Winding Refn, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg

Best Actor: George Clooney, Leonardo diCaprio, Jean Dujardin, Michael Fassbender, Gary Oldman, Brad Pitt

Best Actress: Viola Davis, Elizabeth Olsen, Meryl Streep, Tilda Swinton, Charlize Theron, Michelle Williams

Best Supporting Actor: Kenneth Branagh, Albert Brooks, Christopher Plummer, Andy Serkis, Kevin Spacey, Max von Sydow

Best Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain, Melissa McCarthy, Carey Mulligan, Vanessa Redrave, Octavia Spencer, Shailene Woodley

Best Original Screenplay: 50/50, The Artist, Bridesmaids, Margin Call, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Young Adult

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo, Moneyball, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

The Descendants
December 14

Screen Actors Guild Award Nominations

Last Year's Big Winners: Perfectly mirroring Oscar, Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale and Melissa Leo all went home winners, while "The King's Speech" took the award for best performance by a cast. They also went 17/20 on the nominations themselves.

How This Year Could Shake Down: Coming a day before the Golden Globe nominations, making it here could go a long way toward someone's Oscar hopes (though not necessarily: Jacki Weaver, Michelle Williams and Javier Bardem were all looked over at SAG). Though like the aforementioned Critics' Choice, the following predictions more or less mirror where Oscar seems to be heading, with a few exceptions here and there:

Best Actor: George Clooney, Leonardo diCaprio, Jean Dujardin, Michael Fassbender, Brad Pitt

Best Actress: Glenn Close, Viola Davis, Meryl Streep, Tilda Swinton, Michelle Williams

Best Supporting Actor: Kenneth Branagh, Albert Brooks, Christopher Plummer, Nick Nolte, Max von Sydow

Best Supporting Actress: Berenice Bejo, Jessica Chastain, Vanessa Redrave, Octavia Spencer, Shailenne Woodley

Best Cast: The Artist, The Descendants, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo

December 15

Golden Globe Award Nominations

Last Year's Big Winners: "The Social Network" and "The Kids Are All Right" won the best film honors in the drama and comedy/musical categories, respectively, while Colin Firth, Paul Giamatti, Annette Bening, Natalie Portman, Melissa Leo and Christian Bale were the acting winners.

How This Year Could Shake Down: The Golden Globes tend to be somewhat unpredictable in an embarrassing kind of way, particularly in the "musical or comedy" categories (where last year they infamously nominated Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp for the critical and commercial disaster "The Tourist").

Both Jolie and Depp could end up with nominations again if the Globes continue their star-f**king ways, Jolie for directing and/or writing "In The Land of Blood and Honey" and Depp for starring in either "The Rum Diary" or "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides." They also have the opportunity to nominate Jolie's other half Brad Pitt twice this year, and it's likely they'll opt to do so. And who knows how they'll handle Madonna's "W.E." Critically panned or not, can the Hollywood Foreign Press Association really resist throwing Madge a bone or two?

Overall, the nominations should likely act as a more star-friendly preview of the Academy Award nominations. Look for Oscar favorites like "War Horse," "The Descendants" and "The Artist" to nab many nominations here en route to doing the same at the Academy Awards. Check out our full list of predictions here.

This article is related to: Academy Awards, Golden Globes, Awards





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