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For Your Consideration: New Oscar Predictions In The Wake of a Storm of December Precursors

Photo of Peter Knegt By Peter Knegt | Indiewire December 18, 2013 at 9:47AM

As it does every December, the 2014 Oscar race has essentially gone from a wide open question mark to a largely settled snooze fest in just two weeks.
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Gravity, Bullock, Clooney

As it does every December, the 2014 Oscar race has essentially gone from a wide open question mark to a largely settled snooze fest in just two weeks. Sometimes it ends up that these two weeks -- when the Golden Globes, SAGs, Critics Choice and about 2,000 or so critics groups all announce their year-end kudos -- are the most exciting part of awards season. Because this is when the 5, 6 or if we're lucky 7 contenders in each of the acting races are more-or-less confirmed and the Academy usually ends up sticking to them.

If an actor doesn't end up with at least one nomination from the Globes, SAG or the Critics Choice, there's a very slim chance they'll end up with an Oscar nomination. Though ask Jacki Weaver how she feels about that slim chance. She's the only one that beat it last year when she ended up with an Oscar nomination for "Silver Linings Playbook." Or, Marion Cotillard and John Hawkes, for that matter, who were both nominated for all three and then didn't end up making it to Oscar's shortlist. The year before, there were two actors (Max von Sydow and Gary Oldman) made the cut without a SAG, Globe or Critics Choice nod, while two (Tilda Swinton and Leonardo DiCaprio) did not despite getting all three. If that trend continues this year, I'd bet -- for what it's worth -- that Jonah Hill ("The Wolf of Wall Street") is the one who makes it in without any of the precursors.

So then who falls out? The following folks managed nods from all 3 organizations: Bruce Dern, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Tom Hanks (for "Captain Phillips," not "Mr. Banks" which he was snubbed in all 3 for), Matthew McConaughey, Cate Blanchett, Sandra Bullock, Judi Dench, Meryl Streep, Emma Thompson, Barkhad Abdi, Daniel Bruhl, Michael Fassbender, Jared Leto, Jennifer Lawrence, Lupita Nyong'o and June Squibb. The predictions below suggest Daniel Bruhl as the sole Oscar exclusion from that group -- but if I had to pick one or two more it would honestly be "August: Osage County" duo Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts, in that order.

American Hustle

As for the race overall, it seems like the Steve McQueen's "12 Years a Slave" vs. Alfonso Cuarón's "Gravity" narrative that was set in early September remains, though David O. Russell's "American Hustle" seems like their biggest challenger. Best picture (and best director, for that matter) will almost certainly come from one of those three films. "12 Years" and "Hustle" were by and large the films to get the most nominations from the Globes and Critics Choice (tying in both regards with 7 and 13 nods apiece, respectively). But notably "Gravity" -- essentially a one-woman show -- pretty much got every nomination it was really in contention for, losing out on higher nomination counts due to its minimal cast. This could give us something of a nail-biter when it comes to best picture, and perhaps another picture/director split (suggestively at this point with "12 Years" getting best picture and Cuarón getting best director, but it could be the other way around or involve "American Hustle" somehow).

Beyond those three, Alexander Payne's "Nebraska" and Paul Greengrass's "Captain Phillips" are looking pretty locked in for best picture nominations, and then it gets a little more unstable. We don't know how many nominations there will be, after all, though the remaining 0-5 slots seem to be a battle between 6 films (in order of likelihood, at least as far as I'm concerned): Joel & Ethan Coen's "Inside Llewyn Davis," Spike Jonze's "Her," Martin Scorsese's "The Wolf of Wall Street," John Lee Hancock's "Saving Mr. Banks," Jean-Marc Vallee's "Dallas Buyers Club" and Stephen Frears' "Philomena." 

Those predictions and ones for every category save the short films are listed below, and they suggest that overall that "12 Years a Slave" would easily lead the nomination count with 11, while "American Hustle," "Captain Phillips" and "Gravity" would each have 8. For more commentary on each individual category, click here.

12 Years A Slave

Best Picture:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

If There's a 9th Nominee: Saving Mr. Banks
If There's a 10th Nominee: Dallas Buyers Club
The Spoiler Nominee: Philomena
Pretty Please: Before Midnight
Winner Prediction: 12 Years a Slave


Best Director:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze, Her
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle

The Spoiler Nominee: Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Pretty Please: Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Winner Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity

Blue Jasmine


Best Actress:

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench
, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

The Spoiler Nominee: Amy Adams, American Hustle
Pretty Please: Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color
Winner Prediction: Cate Blanchett,

Blue Jasmine

Best Actor:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

The Spoiler Nominee: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Pretty Please: Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Winner Prediction: Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Nebraska


Best Supporting Actress:

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler

The Spoiler Nominee: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Pretty Please: Scarlett Johannson, Her
Winner Prediction: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave


Best Supporting Actor:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Barkhad Adbi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

The Spoiler Nominee: Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Pretty Please: James Franco, Spring Breakers
Winner Prediction: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club


Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Original Screenplay:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
David O. Russell & Eric Singer, American Hustle

The Spoiler Nominee: Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said
Pretty Please: Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Winner Prediction: David O. Russell & Eric Singer, American Hustle


Best Adapted Screenplay:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
Bill Ray, Captain Phillips
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

The Spoiler Nominee: Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
Pretty Please: Abdellatif Kechiche & Ghalia Lacroix, Blue is the Warmest Color
Winner Prediction: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave

The Great Beauty


Best Foreign Language Film:

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Gabrielle (Canada)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Past (Iran)
Wadjda (Saudi Arabia)

The Spoiler Nominee: Gloria (Chile)
Pretty Please: Ilo Ilo (Singapore)
Winner Prediction: Wadjda (Saudi Arabia)

Best Documentary Feature:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
The Act of Killing
Blackfish
The Square
Stories We Tell
Twenty Feet From Stardom

The Spoiler Nominee: Tim's Vermeer
Pretty Please: Cutie and the Boxer
Winner Prediction: Stories We Tell


Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):

Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises

The Spoiler Nominee: The Croods
Pretty Please: N/A
Winner Prediction: Frozen


Her, Joaquin Phoenix

Best Cinematography:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):

Sean Bobbitt, 12 Years a Slave
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Hoyte Van Hoytema, Her
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska

The Spoiler Nominee: Anthony Dod Mantle, Rush
Pretty Please: Bradford Young, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
Winner Prediction: Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity


Best Film Editing:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Joe Walker, 12 Years a Slave
Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers, American Hustle
Christopher Rouse, Captain Phillips

Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger, Gravity
Daniel P. Hanley & Mike Hill, Rush

The Spoiler Nominee: Thelma Shoonmaker, The Wolf of Wall Street
Pretty Please: Jeff Buchanan & Eric Zumbrunnen, Her
Winner Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger

, Gravity

Saving Mr. Banks

Best Production Design:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Adam Stochausen & Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave
Catherine Martin & Beverly Dunn, The Great Gatsby

K.K. Barrett & Gene Serdena, Her
Jess Gonchor & Susan Bode, Inside Llewyn Davis
Michael Corenblith & Susan Benjamin, Saving Mr. Banks

The Spoiler Nominee: Andy Nicholson & Rosie Goodwin, Gravity
Pretty Please: Julie Berghoff & Sophie Neudorfer, The Conjuring
Winner Prediction: Adam Stochausen & Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave


Best Costume Design:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Patricia Norris, 12 Years a Slave
Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
Catherine Martin, The Great Gatsby

Michael O'Connor, The Invisible Woman
Daniel Orlandi, Saving Mr. Banks

The Spoiler Nominee: Mary Zophres, Inside Llewyn Davis
Pretty Please: François Barbeau & Xavier Dolan, Laurence Anyways
Winner Prediction: Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle

"The Great Gatsby"
Warner Bros. "The Great Gatsby"


Best Original Score:

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave

John Williams, The Book Thief
Steven Price, Gravity
William Butler & Owen Pallett, Her
Thomas Newman, Saving Mr. Banks

The Spoiler Nominee: Alex Ebert, All Is Lost
Pretty Please: Mike Patton, The Place Beyond The Pines
Winner Prediction: Steven Price, Gravity


Best Original Song:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
"Amen" (All Is Lost)
"Doby" (Anchorman 2)
"Let It Go" (Frozen)
"The Moon Song" (Her)
"Young and Beautiful" (The Great Gatsby)

The Spoiler Nominee: "Sweeter Than Fiction" (One Chance)
Pretty Please: "So You Know What It's Like" (Short Term 12)
Winner Prediction: "Let It Go" (Frozen)

HobbitDesolationofSmaug
'The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug'


Best Sound Mixing:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
Rush

The Spoiler Nominee: All Is Lost
Winner Prediction: Gravity


Best Sound Editing:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Lone Survivor
Rush

The Spoiler Nominee: Pacific Rim
Winner Prediction: Gravity


Best Visual Effects:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Gravity
The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
World War Z

The Spoiler Nominee: Iron Man 3
Winner Prediction: Gravity


Best Makeup & Hairstyling:

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
American Hustle
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

The Spoiler Nominee: Dallas Buyers Club
Winner Prediction: The Lone Ranger


Peter Knegt is Indiewire's Senior Writer and awards columnist. Follow him on Twitter.

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This article is related to: Awards Season Roundup, Academy Awards, Academy Awards, For Your Consideration, 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, American Hustle