Most Likely To Succeed: No one, really.
Dark Horses: Rinko Kikuchi, Kumiko, The Treasure Hunter; Zoe Saldana, Infinitely Polar Bear; Ellen Dorrit Petersen, Blind; Keira Knightley, Laggies; Elle Fanning, Low Down; Kristen Wiig, The Skeleton Twins
Best Supporting Actor: If I had to place a bet on one Oscar nominee to come out of Sundance, it's J.K. Simmons. The character actor gives career best work as the fearsome maestro of jazz in "Whiplash," and it's totally the kind of performance that Oscar voters eat up -- especially when it's care of an actor who has long gone unnoticed. And then there's Ethan Hawke, who might be the strongest option from Linklater's "Boyhood" to get a major nomination (it's unique territory given his performance comes over 12 years of shooting), while Jonathan Pryce is fantastic in "Listen Up Phillip," even though the movie itself might be too small to get major awards recognition.
Most Likely To Succeed: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Dark Horses: Ethan Hawke, Boyhood; Jonathan Pryce, Listen Up Phillip
Most Likely To Succeed: Marisa Tomei, Love is Strange
Dark Horses: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood; Elisabeth Moss, Listen Up Phillip, Eva Green, White Bird In a Blizzard
Best Documentary Feature: Here's where we have some certainty. It's reasonable to feel assured that at least one of Sundance's docs will end up an Oscar nominee, if not two, three, four or all five (this year, as noted, four screened at Sundance). Though while the idea of a doc from Sundance being nominated is a very good bet, knowing which doc makes it is next to impossible. Last year one would have thought films like "Blackfish" or "After Tiller" might have ended up nominees, but that wasn't the case. This year, there's basically a 20 film-long laundry list to choose from, though I'd give "Life Itself," "Rich Hill," "The Overnighters," "The Case Against 8" and "The Battered Bastards of Baseball" the edge.
Most Likely To Succeed: Life Itself; The Overnighters; Rich Hill; The Battered Bastards of Baseball; The Case Against 8; Last Days in Vietnam; The Internet's Own Boy
Dark Horses: Concerning Violence; Dinosaur 13; Alive Inside, Happy Valley; E-TEAM, Return To Homs; Watchers of the Sky; Ivory Tower; The Green Prince; 20,000 Days on Earth.
Peter Knegt is Indiewire's Senior Writer and awards columnist. Follow him on Twitter if you want more of the same.