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For Your Consideration: Final Oscar Predictions

Photo of Peter Knegt By Peter Knegt | Indiewire February 1, 2010 at 3:58AM

In just four days, Oscar prognosticators around the internet will see their months and months of buzz-tracking and guesswork culminate in the announcement of the nominations for the 82nd Annual Academy Awards. Though there's a lot of obvious choices suspected - from the dominance of "Avatar" and "The Hurt Locker" to grid-locked acting nominees like Christoph Waltz, Mo'Nique, Jeff Bridges, Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock. But the Academy still has some room to surprise, most notably in its expanded ten best picture nominees, where really only five films are certainties, and three slots true question marks. And while the supporting acting categories both seem to have unbeatable winners in Waltz and Mo'Nique, their nominees are very much up in the air (though "Up In The Air"'s Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick shouldn't be worried). Two slots in both categories could find themselves going to a wide range of contenders.
2
For Your Consideration: Final Oscar Predictions
Image courtesy of AMPAS.

In just four days, Oscar prognosticators around the internet will see their months and months of buzz-tracking and guesswork culminate in the announcement of the nominations for the 82nd Annual Academy Awards. Though there's a lot of obvious choices suspected - from the dominance of "Avatar" and "The Hurt Locker" to grid-locked acting nominees like Christoph Waltz, Mo'Nique, Jeff Bridges, Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock. But the Academy still has some room to surprise, most notably in its expanded ten best picture nominees, where really only five films are certainties, and three slots true question marks. And while the supporting acting categories both seem to have unbeatable winners in Waltz and Mo'Nique, their nominees are very much up in the air (though "Up In The Air"'s Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick shouldn't be worried). Two slots in both categories could find themselves going to a wide range of contenders.

For what it's worth, indieWIRE is running down our predictions in 21 different categories, including full lists of all reasonable contenders in the six major categories. If our predictions were to somehow come true, "Avatar" would lead the pack with 10 nominations.


Best Picture

Locks:
1. Avatar
2. The Hurt Locker
3. Up In The Air
4. Precious
5. Inglourious Basterds

Likely:
6. An Education
7. Up

For The Final Three Slots:
8. District 9
9. Invictus
10. A Serious Man

11. Crazy Heart
12. Star Trek
13. The Messenger
14. Julie & Julia

Kathryn Bigelow on the set of "The Hurt Locker." Image courtesy of Summit Entertainment.


Best Director

Locks:
1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
2. James Cameron, Avatar
3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Very Likely:
4. Jason Reitman, Up In The Air

The Fifth
5. Lee Daniels, Precious

The Alternates:
6. Neill Blomkamp, District 9
7. Lone Scherfig, An Education
8. Clint Eastwood, Invictus


Best Actor

Locks:
1. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
2. George Clooney, Up In The Air
3. Colin Firth, A Single Man

Very Likely:
4. Morgan Freeman, Invictus
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

The Alternates:
6. Matt Damon, The Informant!
7. Ben Foster, The Messenger
8. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man

Meryl Streep in a scene from "Julie & Julia."


Best Actress

Locks:
1. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
2. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
3. Carey Mulligan, An Education
4. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Very Likely
5. Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Alternates:
6. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
7. Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
8. Saorise Ronan, The Lovely Bones

-This article continues on the next page-

Mo'Nique in a scene from Lee Daniels' "Precious." Image courtesy of Lionsgate

Best Supporting Actor

Locks Don't Come Any Bigger:
1. Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Very Likely:
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
3. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

The Last Two Slots:
4. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
5. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles

6. Matt Damon, Invictus
7. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
8. Alfred Molina, An Education
9. Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated

Best Supporting Actress

Locks Don't Come Any Bigger:
1. Mo'Nique, Precious

Slightly Slighter Locks:
2. Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air
3. Vera Farmiga, Up In The Air

Those Last Two Slots:
4. Julianne Moore, A Single Man
5. Penelope Cruz, Nine

6. Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
7. Marion Cotillard, Nine
8. Samantha Morton, The Messenger
9. Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
10. Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
11. Sigourney Weaver, Avatar

Carey Mulligan and Peter Sarsgaard in a scene from "An Education." Image courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics.


Best Original Screenplay

Locks:
1. The Hurt Locker
2. Inglourious Basterds

Likely:
3. Up
4. (500) Days of Summer

Last Slot:
5. A Serious Man
6. Avatar
7. It's Complicated
8. The Hangover
9. The Messenger

Best Adapted Screenplay

Locks:
1. Up In The Air
2. An Education
3. Precious

For The Last Two Slots:
4. District 9
5. Julie & Julia

6. In The Loop
7. Fantastic Mr. Fox
8. Invictus
9. A Single Man
10. Star Trek

-This rest of the ranked predictions - without alternates - is on the next page-

A scene from Quentin Tarantino's "Inglourious Basterds." Image courtesy of The Weinstein Company.


Best Animated Film


1. Up
2. Fantastic Mr. Fox
3. Coraline
4. The Princess and the Frog
5. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs

Best Foreign-Language Film

1. The White Ribbon (Germany)
2. A Prophet (France)
3. The Secret In Their Eyes (Argentina)
4. Samson & Delilah (Australia)
5. Ajami (Israel)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Cove
2. Food, Inc.
3. Burma VJ
4. The Beaches of Agnes
5. Every Little Step

Best Film Editing

1. Avatar
2. The Hurt Locker
3. Star Trek
4. Up In The Air
5. Inglourious Basterds

Best Cinematography

1. Avatar
2. The Hurt Locker
3. Inglourious Basterds
4. The White Ribbon
5. Nine

Best Art Direction

1. Inglourious Basterds
2. Avatar
3. Sherlock Holmes
4. Public Enemies
5. A Serious Man

Best Costume Design

1. Nine
2. The Young Victoria
3. Sherlock Holmes
4. Coco Before Chanel
5. Bright Star

Best Original Score

1. Avatar
2. Up
3. Star Trek
4. The Informant!
5. A Serious Man
Jeff Bridges and Maggie Gyllenhaal in a scene from "Crazy Heart." Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight.


Best Original Song


1. "The Weary Kind" from "Crazy Heart"
2. "Cinema Italiano" from "Nine"
3. "Almost There" from "The Princess and the Frog"
4. "I See You" from "Avatar"
5. "Take It All" from "Nine"

Best Makeup

1. Star Trek
2. District 9
3. The Young Victoria


Best Sound Editing

1. Avatar
2. Star Trek
3. The Hurt Locker
4. District 9
5. Up

Best Sound Mixing

1. Avatar
2. Star Trek
3. The Hurt Locker
4. Transformer: Revenge of the Fallen
5. District 9

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar
2. Star Trek
3. District 9

"For Your Consideration" is a weekly column written by indieWIRE Associate Editor Peter Knegt. Check out the previous editions of the column:

For Your Consideration: Is Kathryn Bigelow a Female Director?
For Your Consideration: Re-Assessing The Major Categories
For Your Consideration: How Much Does Oscar Love a Musical?
For Your Consideration: 10 Surprises From The Spirit Award Nominations
For Your Consideration: A Guide To The Oscar Precursors
For Your Consideration: 25 Things The Academy Got Right In The 2000s
For Your Consideration: The 50 Most Despicable Oscar Snubs of the 2000s
For Your Consideration: Assessing The Major Oscar Categories
For Your Consideration: Oscar's Gay Tendencies
For Your Consideration: 11 Underdog Performances
For Your Consideration: History Repeats as Major Foreign Films Left Off Academy List
For Your Consideration: 10 Things The Fall Fests Told Us About Awards Season

This article is related to: Features, Academy Awards






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