Oscar ‘09: Who Will Win and Who Should Win

by Peter Knegt (February 20, 2009)
Oscar ‘09: Who Will Win and Who Should Win
A scene from Danny Boyle's "Slumdog Millionaire." Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight.

indieWIRE conducted a poll of some our writers, bloggers and friends, asking the two questions most often asked come Academy Award time: Who will win, and who should win? In thirteen categories, our insiders suggested who might take home some gold Sunday evening, with “Slumdog Millionaire” expectedly leading in best picture, best director, best adapted screenplay and best cinematography.  In more contentious categories, like best actor for example, voters weren’t as much in agreement, taking Mickey Rourke over Sean Penn by a 60/40 margin.

As for who should win, six categories lined up with the “woulds,” while others were vast disagreement. In an indieWIRE pollster’s world, “Milk” would win best picture.

You can check out any of our polled participants’ individual ballots here:

Erica Abeel | Kyle Buchanan | Tom Hall | Eugene Hernandez | Eric Hynes | James Israel | Keaton Kail | Eric Kohn | Michael Koresky | Peter Knegt | Karina Longworth | Anne Thompson | Basil Tsiokos | Michael Tully | Kim Voynar | Chris Wisniewski.

These ballots also include their picks for the Spirit Awards. But first, on to the Oscars:

Best Picture
Who Will Win: 100% of those polled say “Slumdog Millionaire” (as does everyone else in the world).

Who Should Win: The “Slumdog” consensus doesn’t translate here (only 20% thought it should take the prize), as 53% of our pollees felt “Milk” should take home this year’s best picture prize.

Best Director
Who Will Win: “Slumdog”‘s Danny Boyle, with 87% of the votes. David Fincher is the possible upset, taking 13%.

Who Should Win: Gus Van Sant, says 46% of those polled.  Boyle (33%) and Fincher (13%) were the other choices.

Best Actress
Who Will Win: Kate Winslet, according to 87% of the voters. Her closest competition is Meryl Streep, who took 13% of the votes.

Who Should Win: A considerable split here, with 40% saying Anne Hathaway.  Winslet (20%), Streep (13%), Leo (13%), and “none of the above” (13%) rounded out the votes. Sorry Angelina.
A scene from Darren Aronofsky’s “The Wrestler.” Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight

Best Actor
Who Will Win: This round of Rourke vs. Penn finds Mickey Rourke leading a 60/40 split over Penn.

Who Should Win: Its 60% support for Mickey Rourke here as well, while Penn takes 33%, and Richard Jenkins takes 7%.

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Penelope Cruz (87%), with some risk-takers giving hope to Marisa Tomei and Viola Davis (7% each)

Who Should Win: Voters agreed on the same three women, with slightly different results. Penelope Cruz is again the leader, with 80% saying she deserves it.  Davis gets a bit more support with 13%, and Tomei stagnates with 7%.

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Unsurprisingly, 100% of those polled say Heath Ledger.

Who Should Win: Perhaps a bit more surprisingly, only 46% think Heath Ledger deserves it.  Josh Brolin (20%), Michael Shannon (20%), and Robert Downey Jr (13%) all have fans at indieWIRE.

Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: “Milk”‘s Dustin Lance Black,” says 80%.  “Frozen River”‘s Courtney Hunt (13%) and “WALL-E”‘s Andrew Stanton (7%) are his closest competition.

Who Should Win: Everyone except “In Bruges”’ Martin McDonagh, apparently. “Happy-Go-Lucky”‘s Mike Leigh found the most support (40%), while Stanton (33%), Black (20%) and Hunt (7%) followed.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: 87% say Simon Beaufoy‘s “Slumdog Millionaire” script will. Non-“Slumdog” sweep believers have “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”‘s Eric Roth and “Frost/Nixon”‘s Peter Morgan 7% a piece.

Who Should Win: It’s a tie! Between “Doubt”‘s John Patrick Shanley and, uh, “none of the above.” 33% thought Shanley’s adaptation of his own play deserved it, while the same thought none of the nominees did. 

Best Animated Film
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: This is the only occurrence of the poll in which everyone rightfully agreed on both: “WALL-E.”

Best Foreign Language Film
Who Will Win: What some argue is a close race isn’t suggested as such here. 93% said “Waltz With Bashir” will win over “The Class.”

Who Should Win: “The Class” and “Revanche” each found a few votes, but “Waltz With Bashir” again dominated, taking 87%.

Best Documentary Feature
Who Will Win: 93% say “Man on Wire.”

Who Should Win: Three films split this vote, with “Man on Wire” (40%) narrowly defeating “Encounters at the End of the World” (33%), and “Trouble The Water” (27%)

Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: “Slumdog” again, with cinematographer Anthony Dod Mantle winning 87% of our voters predictions.

Who Should Win: “The Dark Knight”‘s Wally Pfister (33%) over Mantle and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”‘s Claudio Miranda, each taking 27%.

Best Makeup
Who Will Win: Everyone said “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”‘s Greg Cannom.

Who Should Win: 67% again said Greg Cannom, with “The Dark Knight”‘s John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O’Sullivan next in line.

The ballots:

Erica Abeel | Kyle Buchanan | Tom Hall | Eugene Hernandez | Eric Hynes | James Israel | Keaton Kail | Eric Kohn | Michael Koresky | Peter Knegt | Karina Longworth | Anne Thompson | Basil Tsiokos | Michael Tully | Kim Voynar | Chris Wisniewski.

posted on February 20, 2009
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