Oscar/Spirits Ballot 2011: Tim Robey

Tim Robey, The Telegraph Film Critic

Film Independent's Spirit Awards

Best Feature:
Will Win: "Black Swan"
Should Win: "Winter's Bone"

Best Director:
Will Win: Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"
Should Win: Lisa Cholodenko, "The Kids Are All Right"

Best Female Lead:
Will Win: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Should Win: Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"

Best Male Lead:
Will Win: James Franco, "127 Hours"
Should Win: James Franco, "127 Hours"

Best Supporting Female:
Will Win: Dale Dickey, "Winter's Bone"
Should Win: Dale Dickey, "Winter's Bone"

Best Supporting Male:
Will Win: Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"
Should Win: Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"

Best Screenplay:
Will Win: "The Kids Are All Right"
Should Win: "The Kids Are All Right"

Best Documentary:
Will Win: "Exit Through the Gift Shop"
Should Win: "Restrepo"

Best Foreign Film:
Will Win: "Of Gods and Men"
Should Win: "Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives"

Best Cinematography:
Will Win: "Black Swan"
Should Win: "Black Swan"

Oscars:

Best Picture:
Will Win: "The King's Speech"
Should Win: "The Fighter"

Best Director:
Will Win: David Fincher, "The Social Network"
Should Win: David Fincher, "The Social Network"

Best Actor:
Will Win: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"

Best Actress:
Will Win: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Should Win: Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
Should Win: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"
Should Win: Amy Adams, "The Fighter"

Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: "The King's Speech"
Should Win: "Another Year"

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: "The Social Network"
Should Win: "The Social Network"

Best Animated Feature:
Will Win: "Toy Story 3"
Should Win: "The Illusionist"

Best Doc Feature:
Will Win: "Exit Through the Gift Shop"
Should Win: "Restrepo"

Best Foreign Film:
Will Win: "In a Better World"
Should Win: "Dogtooth"

Best Cinematography:
Will Win: "True Grit"
Should Win: "Black Swan"

Best Original Score:
Will Win: "The Social Network"
Should Win: "The Social Network"