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by Peter Knegt
February 22, 2013 7:37 PM
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Oscars Poll: Who Will Win and Who Should Win According To 103 Critics and Bloggers

"Argo" Warner Bros.
While we've already posted my personal predictions in each category, we also invited the critics listed in Indiewire's Criticwire network to offer their picks as to who will and should win at Sunday's Oscar ceremony in 14 categories. This year, over 100 of them participated.

Like most predictions, the results suggested "Argo" will be taking home the night's biggest prize, but beyond that the results are pretty spread out: "Lincoln," "Life of Pi," "Django Unchained," "Amour" and "Silver Linings Playbook" are all predicted to take home an Oscar or two below as well.

Check out all the results below. Links to individual ballots are forthcoming.

Best Picture
Who Will Win: Ben Affleck's charging frontrunner "Argo" was by far the consensus here, with nearly 82% of the 103 critics and bloggers polled saying it will win the best picture Oscar. "Lincoln" was a distant second with 12% of the vote, while "Silver Linings" (3%), "Beasts of the Southern Wild" (1%) and "Django Unchained" (1%) were ticked off by a few brave folks.

Who Should Win: Making it clear what a divisive and interesting year 2012 was, the votes here were all over the place. "Argo" certainly wasn't the critics choice -- it took only 10% of the vote to place fifth after "Beasts" (11%), "Django" (12%), "Amour" (16%) and our polls choice as to who should win, "Zero Dark Thirty" (34%). Notably, the only film to not recieve any votes (and every other film managed at least 5), was "Les Miserables."

Best Director
Who Will Win: Most Oscar prognosticators aren't so sure about Steven Spielberg willing this seemingly frontrunner-less race, but our poll had 73% of critics feeling confident about his odds. Ang Lee was second with 14%, while Michael Haneke (6%), David O. Russell (4%) and Benh Zeitlin (3%).

Who Should Win: Michael Haneke for the win, at least in our pollsters' dreams. The Austrian filmmaker took 30% of the vote, followed closely by Spielberg (28%). The votes were in general spread out nicely, with Lee (19%), Zeitlin (12%) and Russell (11%) all being at least 10 folks' pick,

Best Actress
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, according to 52% of those polled. That's not a hugely confident number compared to some other major races, with Emmanuelle Riva (29%) and Jessica Chastain (15%) both getting sizeable support as well.

Who Should Win: Lawrence polled third (22%) here, behind both Chastain (29%) and the critic pick, Emmanuelle Riva (48%). Quvenzhane Wallis and Naomi Watts each got a lone vote.

Best Actor
Who Will Win: In the strongest consensus of any category, Daniel Day-Lewis took 95% of the vote here, and those who picked him are almost certain to be right come Oscar night. Hugh Jackman and Joaquin Phoenix each received two ambitious voters' support.

Who Should Win: Day-Lewis had strong support here (42%), but Joaquin Phoenix (51%) was the overall pick. Jackman, Bradley Cooper and Denzel Washington had just 7% of the vote between them.

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: With near Day-Lewis-level certainly, Anne Hathaway (92%) was the overwhelming choice, with some risk-takers giving hope to Sally Field (5%) and Amy Adams (3%).

Who Should Win: Hathaway and Adams faced off here, with Amy Adams narrowly being the critics choice with 35% over Hathaway's 34%. Sally Field (13%) and Helen Hunt (18%) got some strong support as well.

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: The night's biggest acting race toss up saw 41% of those polled picked Tommy Lee Jones for the win. But Robert DeNiro (25%) and Christoph Waltz (18%) weren't far behind and even Phillip Seymour Hoffman (9%) and Alan Arkin (7%) had respectable amounts of predictors.

Who Should Win: It was less of a toss up in the fantasy scenario, with 56% saying Phillip Seymour Hoffman. Jones and Waltz were tied for second with 17% each.

Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Along with animated feature, this was the tightest of the polls, with Quentin Tarantino's "Django Unchained" script (37%) narrowly topping Mark Boal's for "Zero Dark Thirty" (30%) and Michael Haneke's for "Amour" (28%).

Who Should Win: Just as close, but with a different arrangement: Boal and "Zero Dark Thirty" won with 35% of the vote, followed by Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola for "Moonrise Kingdom" (28%) and Tarantino for "Django" (23%). Despite being the top "who should" pick for best director, Haneke was fourth with 13% of the vote here.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: Chris Terrio win ride the "Argo" wave to a win here, says 60% of those polled. Tony Kushner is next, with his "Lincoln" script getting 30% of the vote. David O. Russell -- a definite possibility here -- surprisingly got just 6%.

Who Should Win: Tony Kushner was by far the pick here, as "Lincoln" took 47% of the vote. Russell and Terrio took 17% and 16%, respectively, while Benh Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar managed 13% for "Beasts of the Southern Wild."

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5 Comments

  • ecto | February 24, 2013 7:36 PMReply

    where is the rest of the list?

  • Lauren | February 24, 2013 5:51 PMReply

    More predictions here! Not a professional critic; just a woman with a passion for film and a lot of time on her hands! http://livingfastlivingstrong.wordpress.com/2013/02/22/and-the-oscar-goes-to/

  • May Jailer | February 23, 2013 1:14 PMReply

    I thought The Master was a fantastic movie, and the acting was outstanding. I'm glad to see it's actors have been recognized by The Academy, but it saddens me that Amy Adams in particular will not take home the Oscar. It's also a shame when looking at the case of Daniel Day Lewis and Phoenix, both were excellent, maybe Day Lewis slightly better, but i would love to see Phoenix finally take home the award.

  • Patrik | February 23, 2013 4:22 AMReply

    Interesting to see that critics seem to think The Master should win in the categories
    it's nominated. I could not agree more. It's a shame that for example Philip Seymour Hoffman doesn't seem to beat the much less fantastic, overrated Tommy Lee Jones.

    Daniel Day-Lewis on the other hand steals the show all the time in Lincoln and is a much more worthy predicted winner compared to TLJ. Though, in my opinion, Phoenix stretches himself a bit further in The Master.

    When it comes to best picture I think that in a perfect world "fantastic" movies like Django Unchained and Silver Linings Playbook would take home this award. But in the world we live in today it's only the "good" movies like Argo and Lincoln that will propably win. And also the unoriginal, terrible bore of a movie, Les Miserables seem to have a better shot at the top prize than for example Django Unchained.

  • Mass | February 22, 2013 10:42 PMReply

    Whoever thinks LINCOLN deserves a best director/screenwriter win should stick to polling for MTV movie awards. Seriously. One of the worst "best" films if seen in a looooong time. Corny dialogue, awful pacing, factually innacurate storytelling, and some obvious biased deceiving makes this film a rotten no go. If I wanted to watch fanboy fiction unfold before my eyes, I'd talk to some Lincoln award honorary college professor.

    Spielberg said he researched this guy for 5 years? Well he either completely omitted the majority of President Lincoln's racist bigotry, or he's lying. Even a 7th grade history book aknowledges the fact that President Lincoln was planning on deporting every freed African American slave from the U.S to diseased South American Countries, simply because President Lincoln thought white citizens could not co-exist in the same Country. This is of course after the fact that the Presidet suspended Habeas Corpus, arrested newspaper editors on no criminal charges, starved the South, and arguably provoked the South into the bloodiest War the Unitrd States has ever seen simply because he wanted to preserve his precious Union and expand his Train business. Freeing Slaves was not a moral thing, it was a profit thing. The fact that this film completely re-writes history and claims its realistic/based on fact is absolutely insulting to its viewers.

    LINCOLN had its moments, in particular the brutally realistic opening fight scene, and the fantastically acted scene where President Lincoln and his son visit the injured Union soldiers, unfortunately, for the most part, the rest of the film is an absolute bore. I really expected more out of Spielberg. Post 1990s this guy just really stopped giving a damn.