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by Peter Knegt
October 15, 2012 10:31 AM
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Previewing the Gotham Award Nominations: Which Films Will Make The Cut Thursday?

Best Feature:
Predicted five:
Beasts of the Southern Wild (FILM PAGE)
The Master (FILM PAGE)
Moonrise Kingdom (FILM PAGE)
The Sessions (FILM PAGE)
Silver Linings Playbook (FILM PAGE)

But watch out for:
Bernie (FILM PAGE)
Compliance (FILM PAGE)
Damsels in Distress (FILM PAGE)
Hitchcock (FILM PAGE)
Sleepwalk With Me (FILM PAGE)

Best Documentary:
Predicted five:
The Central Park Five (FILM PAGE)
Detropia (FILM PAGE)
The House I Live In (FILM PAGE)

How To Survive a Plague (FILM PAGE)
The Invisible War (FILM PAGE)

But watch out for:
Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (FILM PAGE)
The Queen of Versailles (FILM PAGE)
Tchoupitoulas (FILM PAGE)
West of Memphis (FILM PAGE)

Best Cast Ensemble:
The predicted five:
Moonrise Kingdom
Smashed (FILM PAGE)
Silver Linings Playbook

But watch out for:
Damsels in Distress
The Master
The Perks of Being a Wallflower (FILM PAGE)
The Sessions
Your Sister's Sister (FILM PAGE)

Best Breakthrough Director:
The predicted five:
Mike Birbigilia, Sleepwalk With Me
Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Ana DuVernay, Middle of Nowhere (FILM PAGE)

Ben Lewin, The Sessions
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

But watch out for:
David Chase, Not Fade Away (his first film, but hardly a breakthrough) (FILM PAGE)
Sacha Gervasi, Hitchcock (his first narrative feature, but has done docs) 
Nicolas Jarecki, Arbitrage (his first narrative feature, but has done docs) (FILM PAGE)
Jake Schreier, Robot and Frank (FILM PAGE)
Colin Trevorrow, Safety Not Guaranteed (FILM PAGE)

Best Breakthrough Performance:
The predicted five:
Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere 
John Magaro, Not Fade Away
Nate Parker, Arbitrage
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

But watch out for:
Jared Gilman, Moonrise Kingdom
Kara Hayward, Moonrise Kingdom
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Thure Lindhardt, Keep The Lights On (FILM PAGE)
Dreama Walker, Compliance

Peter Knegt is Indiewire's Senior Editor and awards analyst. Follow him on Twitter and on his blog.

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  • Michael | October 15, 2012 4:27 PMReply

    Hey Peter - thanks for your response!

    The Loneliest Planet was directed by an American citizen and produced by a Brooklyn based production company. How is it ineligible?

  • Michael | October 15, 2012 4:09 PMReply

    Sad so few female directors are represented in the narrative categories.
    Surprised Julia Loktev's The Loneliest Planet and Rick Alverson's The Comedy, both of which have had strong festival runs but don't open theatrically until later this month (The Loneliest Planet) and November (The Comedy) are not mentioned as contenders.

  • Peter Knegt | October 15, 2012 4:15 PM

    So female directors are represented sadly because there were not very many to choose from. And The Loneliest Planet is not a US film, therefore ineligible.

  • Slim | October 15, 2012 3:16 PMReply

    Any good reason that "Killer Joe" isn't yet part of this discussion? It was decidedly indie, had some of the best reviews of the year, in particular for its ensemble cast, with Matthew McConaughey, Gina Gershon, and Juno Temple all getting the best notices of their careers so far. Plus, it was considered a comeback of sorts for a legendary director. (Personally, it was my favorite film of the year, so yeah, I'm advocating.)