By Peter Knegt | Indiewire February 23, 2013 at 8:41AM
Indiewire conducted a poll of its writers and 80 of its Criticwire participants, asking two simple questions about this year's Film Independent Spirit Awards: Who will win, and who should win? In thirteen categories, insiders suggested who might take home an award at the ceremony tomorrow afternoon in Santa Monica, California.
Check out all the results below. Links to individual ballots are forthcoming.
Who Will Win: "Beasts of the Southern Wild" (54%) narrowly topped "Silver Linings Playbook" (45%) in what's clearly a very tight race. "Moonrise Kingdom" got a lone vote.
Who Should Win: "Beasts" fared well here too, with 35% saying it deserved the prize. But that couldn't top the 39% that said "Moonrise Kingdom" should win. "Silver Linings" was third with 15%.
Who Will Win: "Beasts" for the win here too, with Benh Zeitlin taking 58% of predictions. David O. Russell was second with 35%, while Wes Anderson took 6%.
Who Should Win: Benh Zeitlin won 31% of the support, which was just under the 33% that said Wes Anderson should win this. David O. Russell was third with 16%, closely followed by Julia Kotev with 14%.
Best Female Lead
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Just like in our Oscar poll, folks suggesting this is Jennifer Lawrence's to lose, with the "Silver Linings Playbook" actress winning 70% of the votes. Quvenzhané Wallis was the possible spoiler, with 28% saying she'd win. Lawrence also was the pollsters' winner of choice, though only 37% said so. Wallis was a closer second here, with 24%. Mary Elizabeth Winstead (16%), Emayatzy Corinealdi (13%) and Linda Cardellini (11%) all found supporters as well.
Best Male Lead
Who Will Win: He might have been snubbed at the Oscars, but our poll suggested John Hawkes would win at the Spirits, with 51% saying so. Oscar nominee Bradley Cooper was second with 32%.
Who Should Win: John Hawkes had a lot of support (30%), but narrowly lost the overall vote to "Bernie" himself, Jack Black (32%). Matthew McConaughey was next for his "Killer Joe" role, taking 21%. Cooper (8%) and Thure Lindhardt (9%) got a few votes as well.
Who Will Win: Another win for "The Sessions," says our poll. Helen Hunt took 47% of the predictions, with Ann Dowd close behind 43%.
Who Should Win: Ann Dowd was by far the winner here, taking 43% over Rosemarie DeWitt (22%), Helen Hunt (20%), Brit Marling (8%) and Lorraine Toussaint (7%).
Best Supporting Male
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: It's all about Matthew McConaughey, who took 75% of the "will win" and 54% of the "should win" vote for "Magic Mike." Michael Pena was second in the "will" poll (with 8%) and Bruce Willis was second for "who should" (16%).
Who Will Win: Separated by just one vote, our poll said David O. Russell would win this for "Silver Linings Playbook" over "Moonrise Kingdom" scribes Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola by a 1% margin. Together, they took up 97% of the vote, with the screenplays "Ruby Sparks" and "Keep The Lights On" making up the remainder of the vote.
Who Should Win: "Moonrise Kingdom" was the favorite here by a much wider margin, taking 50% of the vote. "Silver Linings" (20%) and "Ruby Sparks" (15%) were next.
Best First Feature
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Stephen Chbosky and his "Perks of Being a Wallflower" topped both the will and the should, with 64% saying the former and 38% saying the latter. "Safety Not Guaranteed" took 19% of the vote in both instances, while 12% said "Sound of My Voice" will win and 19% said it should. "Fill The Void" and "Gimme The Loot" got a handful of votes on both occasions.
Who Will Win: Ava DuVernay's "Middle of Nowhere" seems like a shoo-in here, with 66% saying so. "The Color Wheel" (23%) and "Starlet" (11%) got the underdog vote.
Who Should Win: "The Color Wheel" topped "Middle of Nowhere" here, taking 44% of the vote compared to 35% for "Nowhere." "Starlet" also managed a respectable 18%.
Best First Screenplay
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Derek Connolly's script for "Safety Not Guaranteed" won in both polls, with 67% saying it will win and 44% saying it should. Rashida Jones and Will McCormack's script for "Celeste and Jesse Forever" was second in the "will" poll with 11%, while Rama Bernstein's "Fill The Void" script was runner-up in the "should" with 18%.
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Another double consensus pick was "How To Survive a Plague" here, with 70% saying it will win best documentary and another 55% saying it should. "The Invisible War" had 19% of the "will win" vote, while "Central Park Five" was the runner-up in "should" with 24% of the vote.
Best Foreign Film
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Unsurprisingly, "Amour" took 95% of the vote in the "will win" poll and 56% in the "should." "Once Upon a Time in Anatolia" had a respectable 25% of the vote in the latter, while "Sister" and "Rust and Bone" both had many supporters as well.
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Here lies another Spirit Award for "Beasts of the Southern Wild," said 82% of the poll, with 47% saying it deserved it. "Moonrise Kingdom" was a very close second in the "should" poll, taking 46% of the vote.