Indiewire conducted a poll of its writers and 80 of its Criticwire participants, asking two simple questions about this year's Film Independent Spirit Awards: Who will win, and who should win? In thirteen categories, insiders suggested who might take home an award at the ceremony tomorrow afternoon in Santa Monica, California.
Check out all the results below. Links to individual ballots are forthcoming.
Who Will Win: "Beasts of the Southern Wild" (54%) narrowly topped "Silver Linings Playbook" (45%) in what's clearly a very tight race. "Moonrise Kingdom" got a lone vote.
Who Should Win: "Beasts" fared well here too, with 35% saying it deserved the prize. But that couldn't top the 39% that said "Moonrise Kingdom" should win. "Silver Linings" was third with 15%.
Who Will Win: "Beasts" for the win here too, with Benh Zeitlin taking 58% of predictions. David O. Russell was second with 35%, while Wes Anderson took 6%.
Who Should Win: Benh Zeitlin won 31% of the support, which was just under the 33% that said Wes Anderson should win this. David O. Russell was third with 16%, closely followed by Julia Kotev with 14%.
Best Female Lead
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Just like in our Oscar poll, folks suggesting this is Jennifer Lawrence's to lose, with the "Silver Linings Playbook" actress winning 70% of the votes. Quvenzhané Wallis was the possible spoiler, with 28% saying she'd win. Lawrence also was the pollsters' winner of choice, though only 37% said so. Wallis was a closer second here, with 24%. Mary Elizabeth Winstead (16%), Emayatzy Corinealdi (13%) and Linda Cardellini (11%) all found supporters as well.
Best Male Lead
Who Will Win: He might have been snubbed at the Oscars, but our poll suggested John Hawkes would win at the Spirits, with 51% saying so. Oscar nominee Bradley Cooper was second with 32%.
Who Should Win: John Hawkes had a lot of support (30%), but narrowly lost the overall vote to "Bernie" himself, Jack Black (32%). Matthew McConaughey was next for his "Killer Joe" role, taking 21%. Cooper (8%) and Thure Lindhardt (9%) got a few votes as well.