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Spirit Awards Poll: Who Will Win and Who Should Win According To 80 Critics and Bloggers

Photo of Peter Knegt By Peter Knegt | Indiewire February 23, 2013 at 8:41AM

Indiewire conducted a poll of its writers and 80 of its Criticwire participants, asking two simple questions about this year's Film Independent Spirit Awards: Who will win, and who should win? In thirteen categories, insiders suggested who might take home an award at the ceremony tomorrow afternoon in Santa Monica, California.

Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Helen Hunt in 'The Sessions'
Best Supporting Female
Who Will Win: Another win for "The Sessions," says our poll. Helen Hunt took 47% of the predictions, with Ann Dowd close behind 43%.

Who Should Win: Ann Dowd was by far the winner here, taking 43% over Rosemarie DeWitt (22%), Helen Hunt (20%), Brit Marling (8%) and Lorraine Toussaint (7%).

Best Supporting Male
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: It's all about Matthew McConaughey, who took 75% of the "will win" and 54% of the "should win" vote for "Magic Mike." Michael Pena was second in the "will" poll (with 8%) and Bruce Willis was second for "who should" (16%).

Best Screenplay
Who Will Win: Separated by just one vote, our poll said David O. Russell would win this for "Silver Linings Playbook" over "Moonrise Kingdom" scribes Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola by a 1% margin. Together, they took up 97% of the vote, with the screenplays "Ruby Sparks" and "Keep The Lights On" making up the remainder of the vote.

Who Should Win: "Moonrise Kingdom" was the favorite here by a much wider margin, taking 50% of the vote.  "Silver Linings" (20%) and "Ruby Sparks" (15%) were next.

Best First Feature
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Stephen Chbosky and his "Perks of Being a Wallflower" topped both the will and the should, with 64% saying the former and 38% saying the latter. "Safety Not Guaranteed" took 19% of the vote in both instances, while 12% said "Sound of My Voice" will win and 19% said it should. "Fill The Void" and "Gimme The Loot" got a handful of votes on both occasions.

"Middle of Nowhere."
"Middle of Nowhere."
John Cassavetes Award
Who Will Win: Ava DuVernay's "Middle of Nowhere" seems like a shoo-in here, with 66% saying so. "The Color Wheel" (23%) and "Starlet" (11%) got the underdog vote.

Who Should Win: "The Color Wheel" topped "Middle of Nowhere" here, taking 44% of the vote compared to 35% for "Nowhere." "Starlet" also managed a respectable 18%.

Best First Screenplay
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Derek Connolly's script for "Safety Not Guaranteed" won in both polls, with 67% saying it will win and 44% saying it should. Rashida Jones and Will McCormack's script for "Celeste and Jesse Forever" was second in the "will" poll with 11%, while Rama Bernstein's "Fill The Void" script was runner-up in the "should" with 18%.

Best Documentary
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Another double consensus pick was "How To Survive a Plague" here, with 70% saying it will win best documentary and another 55% saying it should. "The Invisible War" had 19% of the "will win" vote, while "Central Park Five" was the runner-up in "should" with 24% of the vote.

Best Foreign Film
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Unsurprisingly, "Amour" took 95% of the vote in the "will win" poll and 56% in the "should." "Once Upon a Time in Anatolia" had a respectable 25% of the vote in the latter, while "Sister" and "Rust and Bone" both had many supporters as well.

Best Cinematography
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Here lies another Spirit Award for "Beasts of the Southern Wild," said 82% of the poll, with 47% saying it deserved it. "Moonrise Kingdom" was a very close second in the "should" poll, taking 46% of the vote.

This article is related to: Criticwire, Spirit Awards

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