Indiewire conducted a poll of its writers and 50 of its Criticwire participants, asking two simple questions about this year's Film Independent Spirit Awards: Who will win, and who should win? In thirteen categories, insiders suggested who might take home an award at the ceremony Saturday afternoon in Santa Monica, California.
Check out all the results below. Links to individual ballots are forthcoming.
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: "12 Years a Slave" dominated the "will win" vote, with 94% of folks saying it will win, while "Inside Llewyn Davis" (4%) and "Nebraska" (2%) each managed a few risky bets. It also led votes for what film should win, but by a much more narrow margin. The film took 34% of the vote, followed by "Inside Llewyn Davis" (30%) and "Frances Ha" (19%).
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: "12 Years" for the win here too, with Steve McQueen taking 89% of predictions. Alexander Payne was a very distant second with 6%, while Shane Carruth took 4% for "Upstream Color." McQueen was also won 37% of the "should win" support, just topping Shane Carruth's 30%. Alexander Payne was third with 13%, followed by JC Chandor and Jeff Nichols, who each got 9%.
Best Female Lead
Who Will Win: Just like at the Oscars, folks are widely suggesting this is Cate Blanchett's to lose, with the "Blue Jasmine" actress winning 83% of the votes. Brie Larson was the possible spoiler, with 11% saying she'd win.
Who Should Win: Blanchett was many a pollster's winner of choice, with 21% saying she should take it, but Brie Larson took 48% to be the overall winner of choice. Julie Delpy was a close third with 20%.
Best Male Lead
Who Will Win: In another potential crossover with Oscar, our poll suggested Matthew McConaughey would win at the Spirits, with 50% saying so. Fellow Oscar nominees Chiwetel Ejiofor and Bruce Dern were second and third with 21% and 17%, respectively.
Who Should Win: McConaughey fell to fourth place in terms of "should win" support (13%), with Ejiofor (19%) and Oscar snubees Robert Redford (19%) and Oscar Isaac (a clear winner with 37%) all in front of him. Wouldn't be nice if the Spirits followed suit and gave it to someone not nominated the next day?