Spirit Awards ‘09: Who Will Win and Who Should Win

A scene from Darren Aronofsky’s “The Wrestler.” Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight

Best Male Lead
Who Will Win: Like the Oscar race, this is apparently down to Rourke vs. Penn. And as he did in our Oscar poll, Mickey Rourke lead the bets of our voters, with 80% (compared to 60% for the Oscar). Penn is a distant second with 20% of the predictions.

Who Should Win: Penn did much better here, taking 40% of the votes, but it’s still Mickey Rourke, who was 53% of those polled’s top choice.

Best Supporting Female
Who Will Win: A whopping 93% say Penelope Cruz.

Who Should Win: Also Penelope Cruz, though only with 73% support this time. Rosemarie DeWitt (27%) and Misty Upham (7%) also found supporters.

Best Supporting Male
Who Will Win: With “The Dark Knight” not quite qualifying as having “indie spirit,” 93% of those polled feel “Milk”‘s James Franco is taking this home.

Who Should Win: James Franco, by a very narrow 47%-40% margin over “Ballast”‘s JimMyron Ross.”

A scene from Charlie Kaufman’s “Synecdoche, New York.” Image courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics.

Best Screenplay
Who Will Win: 80% say “Synecdoche, New York”‘s Charlie Kaufman, with Woody Allen his closest competition at 13%.

Who Should Win: Also Charlie Kaufman, say 73% of our pollees. Woody and “Sugar”‘s Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck each had 20% of the support.

Best First Feature
Who Will Win: Charlie Kaufman is apparently taking home two spirits, as “Synecdoche, New York” was predicted by 63% of our voters. “Medicine For Melancholy” is the potential upset, with the other 37%.

Who Should Win: The situation got tighter here, but “Synecdoche, New York” again beat Barry Jenkins’ “Medicine For Melancholy” 50%-43%.

John Cassavetes Award
Who Will Win: A tight race, with Sean Baker and Darren Dean winning 40% of the vote for “Prince of Broadway,” over “In Search of a Midnight Kiss” (30%) “The Signal” (20%) and “Take Out” (10%).

Who Should Win: Baker narrowly beat himself as “Prince of Broadway” won 44%-33% over “Take Out.”

Best First Screenplay
Who Will Win: “Rachel Getting Married”‘s Oscar snubee Jenny Lumet” in a narrow 44%-38% victory of “Milk”‘s Dustin Lance Black.

Who Should Win: A tie! “Milk’‘s Dustin Lance Black and “Ballast”‘s Lance Hammer” each had 38% of the support.

Best Documentary
Who Will Win: 94% say “Man on Wire.”

Who Should Win: Only 38% say “Man on Wire,” with all five nominees getting support. “The Order of Myths,” “Up The Yangtze” and “Encounters at the End of the World” each had 19% of the vote, while “The Betrayal” had 13%

Best Foreign Film
Who Will Win: It’s tight, but “The Class” takes it by a 40%-33%-27% margin over “Gomorrah” and “Hunger,” respectively.

Who Should Win: Steve McQueen’s “Hunger,” say 33% of voters. Like documentary, all five films get some love: “Silent Light” (27%), “The Class” (20%), “Secret of the Grain” and “Gomorrah” (7% each).

Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: Harris Savides’ work will give “Milk” its third trophy of the night, say 56% of voters. “The Wrestler”‘s Maryse Alberti is second with 31%.

Who Should Win: “Ballast”‘s Lol Crawley, narrowly over “Medicine For Melancholy” D.P. James Laxton.

The ballots:

Erica Abeel | Kyle Buchanan | Tom Hall | Eugene Hernandez | Eric Hynes | James Israel | Keaton Kail | Eric Kohn | Michael Koresky | Peter Knegt | Karina Longworth | Anne Thompson | Basil Tsiokos | Michael Tully | Kim Voynar | Chris Wisniewski