"Grace of Monaco"
Can Olivier Dahan do for Nicole Kidman what he did for Marion Cotillard? The director of Oscar-winner "La Vie en Rose" has brought another actress to the Academy's attention, though Kidman certainly needs no introduction. The three-time Oscar nominee's one win came for the Weinstein-backed "The Hours" in 2002, and Harvey is already pushing one of his favorite stars on voters by having Kidman appear at the company's Cannes-set 2013 preview
. The event featured a five-minute montage of "Grace of Monaco" footage with a strong focus on Kidman's unveiling as Grace Kelly, the iconic film star-turned-princess. Yet the push did not get off to a great start. Indiewire's Nigel Smith said "no one should expect a transformation akin to what Marion Cotillard did as Edith Piaf," and buzz remained low for the film after the screening.
The most reliable source of intrigue for the film actually lies with the "other princess movie" destined to make a similar Oscar push, "Diana." Starring Kidman's friend Naomi Watts as Princess Diana, the biopic has yet to land a U.S. release date. With "Grace of Monaco" debuting on November 27, will "Diana" try to swoop in early or late? In box office terms, it's a better bet to be the first of two similarly-themed movies
. For Oscar, it may not matter. Reviews and public opinion usually define actors' odds, as well as Academy appeal. Kidman and Watts shouldn't have trouble earning favor from critics or Academy members (Watts was nominated just last year for "The Impossible"). I wouldn't expect a showdown to damage either of their odds, but look for these two friends to develop a healthy rivalry if they both score a nomination -- and for Harvey to take advantage of the gossip.
Controversy plagued the Cannes premiere of James Gray's period picture starring Joaquin Phoenix, Marion Cotillard, and Jeremy Renner. Enough so the director made a rather rude statement to critics
and Indiewire's Erick Kohn labeled it "the most divisive film in Cannes competition.
" Anne Thompson said the script "was undermined throughout by clunky, expositional dialogue," and "Jeremy Renner was unconvincing as a street-smart magician." The Hollywood Reporter and Variety gave it positive reviews, but a 50/50 split isn't ideal for the Academy voting process.
Cotillard and Phoenix in 'The Immigrant'
Marion Cotillard shouldn't face that issue. The female lead of "The Immigrant" earned glowing reviews even from critics who didn't care for her film, including Thompson, who said "she speaks Polish like a native," and labeled her "one of the most facially expressive and beautiful actresses working today." Cotillard has felt like a perennial Oscar contender since she won in 2007, including last year when she just missed out for her role in "Ruse and Bone." Her greatest challenge this year will be overcoming any negative stigma attached to the film.
If anyone can help overcome that blemish, it's Harvey Weinstein. This is the man who pushed Meryl Streep to the podium for her much-reviled film "The Iron Lady." Getting voters to look at exactly what he wants them to is Harvey's speciality -- even if it means looking away from something unsightly.
"Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"
It was just four years ago audiences saw Morgan Freeman portray South African President Nelson Mandela in a well-received and Oscar-nominated turn. Is that long enough for Academy members to pay attention to another actor in the same role? TWC is betting yes. Though similarly-themed films going head to head hasn't ended well for the latter picture
of late (or ever
), four years might be long enough for audiences eager to revisit the great leader so soon after his recent health scare
The toughest issue facing the biopic is its lack of Oscar credentials. Its director (Justin Chadwick) has a background mainly in television, and the film's two leads have never entered the Oscar picture, let alone vied for a win (though we all know Idris Elba is perfectly capable
). Screenwriter William Nicholson has earned two Academy Award nominations, but none since "Gladiator" in 2001 (and John Logan has received much of the credit for penning that Best Picture winner) and the recent release of the film's teaser trailer did next to nothing for its buzz.
Let's not underestimate the Weinstein factor, though. The aforementioned first footage notably kept Idris Elba out of view. It could've been anyone walking down that dirt path, and it wouldn't come as a surprise if Harvey is carefully waiting to unveil his best Best Actor candidate (not forgetting Michael B. Jordan of "Fruitvale Station," mind you). If that's the case and Elba delivers the performance we all know he's capable of, then "Mandela" could make everyone forget about "Invictus" entirely.
Believe it or not, it's been six years since Judi Dench last received an Oscar nomination ("Notes on a Scandal"). Prior to her current drought, Dame Dench had been nominated back-to-back years in 1998 & 1999, 2001 & 2002, and 2006 & 2007. She notoriously won for "Shakespeare in Love" despite being on screen for only eight minutes, thus solidifying the Academy's love for the veteran actress. She got some buzz for her turn in "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" last year, but it never materialized. Now she's the best shot at Oscar love for TWC's drama, "Philomena."
Or is she? Penned and co-starring the British comedian Steve Coogan, "Philomena" centers on a woman searching for her adult son after years of forced separation. The premise itself is certainly dramatic enough for Oscar, but the rest of the cast is full of relative unknowns. Still, some industry insiders think Dench's drama is TWC's ace in the hole. It hasn't been given a U.S. release date yet, so expect to hear more about this one on the fall festival circuit.
"The Young and Prodigious T.S. Spivet"
Not much is known about Jean-Pierre Jeunet's latest fantasy film other than its appealing plot and leading lady. Helena Bonham Carter stars as Dr. Clair, the mother of a 12-year-old cartographer who flees his family's ranch to hop a train and receive an award from the Smithsonian. Intriguing, no? Jeunet made a splash in the early aughts with "Amelie" (for which he earned a screenwriting nomination) and "A Very Long Engagement" after misguidedly dipping his toe in the blockbuster pool for "Alien: Resurrection" in 2001. His last effort, 2010's "Micmacs," played the festival circuit after premiering at TIFF in 2009, but earned no Academy attention.
Needless to say, Jeunet is the most marketable Oscar asset for Harvey Weinstein. It would be a big surprise if this film emerged as any kind of frontrunner, but it could score a screenplay nod if it hits the festivals hard and plays well nationally. Based on the international trailer, its scope is certainly epic enough and Jeunet's now-expected innovative visuals could lure the same voters who were wooed by the 3D eye candy of "Hugo" a few years back. It's a steep hill to climb given its limited marketability, but that's why it's got the big gun, er, guy behind it.
These aren't all the films TWC is expected to release this year. "Snowpiercer" is expected sometime in 2013. The documentary "Salinger" shouldn't be counted out of the Best Documentary race. Wong Kar Wai's "The Grandmaster" and Keanu Reeves' "The Man of Tai Chi" just aren't contenders -- the former doesn't seem to be trying while the latter is also aspiring towards other goals.
What do you think dear readers? Which of the Weinsteins' films has the best shot at Oscar? Is there a multi-category smash among them? Will "August: Osage County" live up to the hype? Does "The Butler" name change actually damage its odds, or will the free publicity outweigh the detriments? Let us know below and keep checking in for more updates on all of Harvey's films.
READ MORE: Indiewire's 2014 Oscar Predictions