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Gold Digging: Front Runners and Underdogs IV

Gold Digging: Front Runners and Underdogs IV

r154636_556687.jpgWith my foot firmly in my mouth, this fourth edition of my Oscar predictions (without category commentary but now with snappy subheadings!) has The Kite Runner in my top 5 and Sweeney Todd shakily placed just beneath it. The way I see it at this point, with all films having been seen and the NBR giving a slight idea of what might come, nine films all seem within reach of those five coveted slots, with only No Country and Atonement having any firm placement. My suggested five (those two, Runner, Juno, Butterfly) are films it seems people are really passionate about and will likely get lots of #1 ballot placements. However, the same could be said about Sweeney, Michael Clayton and slightly less so, Into The Wild, so who knows if I’m onto something or not. As for the lone director slots (if these indeed are the 5) – I think Tim Burton has a better chance than his film and that Sidney Lumet is hanging on by a thread, taking over for Marc Forster and Jason Reitman, but Im so shaky on that and could easily see Sean Penn. But these two categories are by far the ones I’m least confident about. By far. Which makes this really interesting, thankfully.

Instead of ten choices, Ive basically included all the candidates I see as having even a small chance at a nod, with some categories (actor), having more than others (actress). Most of the acting categories seem to have 3 or 4 pretty likely choices, with many 5th slot showdowns throughout. I’ve also, perhaps naively, included all NBR acting winners in my predicted fives. Check out the full predictions after the jump.

BEST PICTURE


Near-Locks
1. No Country For Old Men
2. Atonement

A Very Tight Race For 3 Slots
3. The Kite Runner
4. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
5. Juno
6. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
7. Michael Clayton
8. Into The Wild
9. American Gangster

An Uphill Battle
10. There Will Be Blood
11. The Savages
12. Charlie Wilson’s War

BEST DIRECTOR


Locks
1. Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men

Close Enough
2. Joe Wright, Atonement

This Doesn’t Look Right?
3. Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Even If The Film Doesn’t Get In…
4. Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Such An Honest Opportunity To Reward A Career..
5. Sidney Lumet, Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead

All They Need Is Some Heat
6. Sean Penn, Into The Wild
7. Marc Forster, The Kite Runner
8. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
9. Ridley Scott, American Gangster

Lone Director Underdogs
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
11. Todd Haynes, I’m Not There

A Writer’s Film?
12. Jason Reitman, Juno

BEST ACTOR


The Big 3
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
2. Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
3. George Clooney, Michael Clayton

Falling Slowly
4. Denzel Washington, American Gangster
5. James McAvoy, Atonement
6. Tommy Lee Jones, In The Valley of Elah

Rising Quickly
7. Frank Langella, Starting Out In The Evening
8. Josh Brolin, No Country For Old Men

Slightly Possible
9. Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
10. Emile Hirsch, Into The Wild
11. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Savages
12. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead
13. Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson’s War

BEST ACTRESS


Lock
1. Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose

The Other 4?
2. Laura Linney, The Savages
3. Julie Christie, Away From Her
4. Ellen Page, Juno
5. Amy Adams, Enchanted

An Uphill Battle
6. Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
7. Keira Knightley, Atonement
8. Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Lock
1. Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men

Definately Maybe
2. Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild
3. Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War

(Temporary?) NBR Buzz
5. Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James…

Old Dudes Out For Affleck’s Slot
6. Philip Bosco, The Savages
7. Max Von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
8. Albert Finney, Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead

Not-Quite-As-Old Dudes Out For Same
9. Tommy Lee Jones, No Country For Old Men
10. Alan Rickman, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Still Possible
11. Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
12. Homayon Ershadi, The Kite Runner
13. John Travolta, Hairspray

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Lock For Nod, But Can She Win?
1. Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There

Its Looking Good
2. Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
3. Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
4. Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

Giant Catfight For The Final Slot
5. Jennifer Garner, Juno
6. Ruby Dee, American Gangster
7. Marisa Tomei, Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead
8. Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
9. Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
10. Kelly McDonald, No Country For Old Men
11. Ramola Garai, Atonement
12. Olympia Dukakis, Away From Her

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Locks
1. Diablo Cody, Juno
2. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

Close Enough
3. Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

Four For Two
4. Brad Bird, Ratatouille
5. Judd Apatow, Knocked Up
6. Kelly Masterson, Before The Devil Knows Youre Dead
7. Steven Zaillian, American Gangster

Slightly Possible
8. Todd Haynes, I’m Not There
9. Steven Knight, Eastern Promises
10. Paul Haggis, In The Valley of Elah
11. Bill Kelly, Enchanted
12. John Carney, Once
13. Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Locks
1. Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men
2. Christopher Hampton, Atonement

Good Shot
3. Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Youre Not Nominated For Director But…
4. Sean Penn, Into The Wild

Last Slot
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
6. David Benioff, The Kite Runner
7. Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson’s War

Slightly Possible
8. Sarah Polley, Away From Her
9. James Vanderbilt, Zodiac
10. John Logan, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
11. Ben Affleck & Aaron Stockard, Gone Baby Gone

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