With my foot firmly in my mouth, this fourth edition of my Oscar predictions (without category commentary but now with snappy subheadings!) has The Kite Runner in my top 5 and Sweeney Todd shakily placed just beneath it. The way I see it at this point, with all films having been seen and the NBR giving a slight idea of what might come, nine films all seem within reach of those five coveted slots, with only No Country and Atonement having any firm placement. My suggested five (those two, Runner, Juno, Butterfly) are films it seems people are really passionate about and will likely get lots of #1 ballot placements. However, the same could be said about Sweeney, Michael Clayton and slightly less so, Into The Wild, so who knows if I’m onto something or not. As for the lone director slots (if these indeed are the 5) – I think Tim Burton has a better chance than his film and that Sidney Lumet is hanging on by a thread, taking over for Marc Forster and Jason Reitman, but Im so shaky on that and could easily see Sean Penn. But these two categories are by far the ones I’m least confident about. By far. Which makes this really interesting, thankfully.
Instead of ten choices, Ive basically included all the candidates I see as having even a small chance at a nod, with some categories (actor), having more than others (actress). Most of the acting categories seem to have 3 or 4 pretty likely choices, with many 5th slot showdowns throughout. I’ve also, perhaps naively, included all NBR acting winners in my predicted fives. Check out the full predictions after the jump.
BEST PICTURE
Near-Locks
1. No Country For Old Men
2. Atonement
A Very Tight Race For 3 Slots
3. The Kite Runner
4. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
5. Juno
6. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
7. Michael Clayton
8. Into The Wild
9. American Gangster
An Uphill Battle
10. There Will Be Blood
11. The Savages
12. Charlie Wilson’s War
BEST DIRECTOR
Locks
1. Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men
Close Enough
2. Joe Wright, Atonement
This Doesn’t Look Right?
3. Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Even If The Film Doesn’t Get In…
4. Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Such An Honest Opportunity To Reward A Career..
5. Sidney Lumet, Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead
All They Need Is Some Heat
6. Sean Penn, Into The Wild
7. Marc Forster, The Kite Runner
8. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
9. Ridley Scott, American Gangster
Lone Director Underdogs
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
11. Todd Haynes, I’m Not There
A Writer’s Film?
12. Jason Reitman, Juno
BEST ACTOR
The Big 3
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
2. Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
3. George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Falling Slowly
4. Denzel Washington, American Gangster
5. James McAvoy, Atonement
6. Tommy Lee Jones, In The Valley of Elah
Rising Quickly
7. Frank Langella, Starting Out In The Evening
8. Josh Brolin, No Country For Old Men
Slightly Possible
9. Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
10. Emile Hirsch, Into The Wild
11. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Savages
12. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead
13. Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson’s War
BEST ACTRESS
Lock
1. Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
The Other 4?
2. Laura Linney, The Savages
3. Julie Christie, Away From Her
4. Ellen Page, Juno
5. Amy Adams, Enchanted
An Uphill Battle
6. Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
7. Keira Knightley, Atonement
8. Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Lock
1. Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Definately Maybe
2. Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild
3. Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
(Temporary?) NBR Buzz
5. Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James…
Old Dudes Out For Affleck’s Slot
6. Philip Bosco, The Savages
7. Max Von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
8. Albert Finney, Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead
Not-Quite-As-Old Dudes Out For Same
9. Tommy Lee Jones, No Country For Old Men
10. Alan Rickman, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Still Possible
11. Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
12. Homayon Ershadi, The Kite Runner
13. John Travolta, Hairspray
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lock For Nod, But Can She Win?
1. Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Its Looking Good
2. Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
3. Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
4. Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Giant Catfight For The Final Slot
5. Jennifer Garner, Juno
6. Ruby Dee, American Gangster
7. Marisa Tomei, Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead
8. Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
9. Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
10. Kelly McDonald, No Country For Old Men
11. Ramola Garai, Atonement
12. Olympia Dukakis, Away From Her
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Locks
1. Diablo Cody, Juno
2. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Close Enough
3. Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Four For Two
4. Brad Bird, Ratatouille
5. Judd Apatow, Knocked Up
6. Kelly Masterson, Before The Devil Knows Youre Dead
7. Steven Zaillian, American Gangster
Slightly Possible
8. Todd Haynes, I’m Not There
9. Steven Knight, Eastern Promises
10. Paul Haggis, In The Valley of Elah
11. Bill Kelly, Enchanted
12. John Carney, Once
13. Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Locks
1. Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men
2. Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Good Shot
3. Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Youre Not Nominated For Director But…
4. Sean Penn, Into The Wild
Last Slot
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
6. David Benioff, The Kite Runner
7. Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson’s War
Slightly Possible
8. Sarah Polley, Away From Her
9. James Vanderbilt, Zodiac
10. John Logan, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
11. Ben Affleck & Aaron Stockard, Gone Baby Gone
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