You will be redirected back to your article in seconds
Back to IndieWire

Gold Digging: Front Runners and Underdogs V

Gold Digging: Front Runners and Underdogs V

r154636_556687.jpgSo in the past week, we’ve seen a dozen critics awards, including the always predictory BFCA and the Golden Globe nominations. As a result, my predictions have been drastically altered from a week ago.

However, despite so much info, a lot of things still seem up the air. Especially best picture and best director, where about 9 films are shifting on the buzz-o-meter frantically and unexpectedly. Theres so many questions: Will There Will Be Blood’s vast critical support push it in? Will Sweeney Todd hold on to its Globes momentum? Are the acting categories locked with Day-Lewis, Cotillard, Bardem and Ryan? Has Atonement’s frontrunner status completely disappeared? And what is gonna win best picture? As for the latter, I can’t really see anything winning. In all honesty, if one film slightly makes sense, its Into The Wild, even though it got no Globes love at all. But maybe I’m underestimating the Academy’s ability to reward the deserving, and No Country will win after all. Either way, it’ll be interesting.

After the jump, my predictions, though I’m not particularly confident this time around, particularly in those occupying #5 slots.

BEST PICTURE


Locks
1. No Country For Old Men

Close Enough
2. Atonement
3. Michael Clayton

BFCA Love=Oscar Love?
4. Into The Wild

Last Slot Showdown
5. There Will Be Blood
6. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
7. Juno
8. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
9. American Gangster

Dead Before Arrival?
10. The Kite Runner

Globe Boost Ain’t Gonna Cut It
11. Charlie Wilson’s War
12. The Great Debaters

BEST DIRECTOR


Locks
1. Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men

Likely?
2. Sean Penn, Into The Wild
3. Joe Wright, Atonement
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

The Likely Lone Director…
5. Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

The Other Possible Lone Director..
6. Sidney Lumet, Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead
7. Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Am I Underestimating..
8. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
9. Ridley Scott, American Gangster

A Writer’s Film
10. Jason Reitman, Juno

BEST ACTOR


The Big 3
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
2. Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
3. George Clooney, Michael Clayton

Fragile But Holding On
4. James McAvoy, Atonement
5. Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
6. Denzel Washington, American Gangster

The Ones To Move Up
7. Frank Langella, Starting Out In The Evening
8. Emile Hirsch, Into The Wild

Slightly Possible
9. Josh Brolin, No Country For Old Men
10. Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
11. Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson’s War

BEST ACTRESS


Locks
1. Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
2. Julie Christie, Away From Her

Very Likely
3. Ellen Page, Juno
4. Amy Adams, Enchanted

Wishful Thinking?
5. Laura Linney, The Savages

All Very Possible
6. Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
7. Keira Knightley, Atonement
8. Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Could Happen More Than I’d Like To Admit
9. Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Locks
1. Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
2. Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War

Globes Hurt Him, But How Can He Be Denied?
4. Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild

Lots of Precursor Love
5. Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James…

Please. God. No.
6. John Travolta, Hairspray

Could Be The Big Surprise? But No Precursor Love
7. Max Von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
8. Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood

Barely Possible
9. Philip Bosco, The Savages
10. Tommy Lee Jones, No Country For Old Men
11. Alan Rickman, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
12. Homayon Ershadi, The Kite Runner

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

A Shockingly Huge Lock
1. Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

Fellow Locks
2. Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
3. Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Likely
4. Saorise Ronan, Atonement

Last Shot Showdown With Considerably Different Order Than Week Ago
5. Catherine Keener, Into The Wild
6. Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
7. Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
8. Jennifer Garner, Juno
9. Ruby Dee, American Gangster
10. Marisa Tomei, Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead
11. Kelly McDonald, No Country For Old Men
12. Ramola Garai, Atonement
13. Olympia Dukakis, Away From Her

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Locks
1. Diablo Cody, Juno
2. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

The Lone Savages Nod?
3. Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

Four For Two
4. Brad Bird, Ratatouille
5. Kelly Masterson, Before The Devil Knows Youre Dead
6. Judd Apatow, Knocked Up
7. Steven Zaillian, American Gangster

Rising A Bit
8. Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
9. Steven Knight, Eastern Promises

Slightly Possible
10. Todd Haynes, I’m Not There

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Locks
1. Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men
2. Christopher Hampton, Atonement

I Can’t See Any Of Them Not Being Nominated But…
3. Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
4. Sean Penn, Into The Wild
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
6. Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson’s War

Please?!
8. Sarah Polley, Away From Her

Too Crowded
9. David Benioff, The Kite Runner
10. James Vanderbilt, Zodiac
11. John Logan, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
12. Ben Affleck & Aaron Stockard, Gone Baby Gone

This Article is related to: Uncategorized and tagged