So in the past week, we’ve seen a dozen critics awards, including the always predictory BFCA and the Golden Globe nominations. As a result, my predictions have been drastically altered from a week ago.
However, despite so much info, a lot of things still seem up the air. Especially best picture and best director, where about 9 films are shifting on the buzz-o-meter frantically and unexpectedly. Theres so many questions: Will There Will Be Blood’s vast critical support push it in? Will Sweeney Todd hold on to its Globes momentum? Are the acting categories locked with Day-Lewis, Cotillard, Bardem and Ryan? Has Atonement’s frontrunner status completely disappeared? And what is gonna win best picture? As for the latter, I can’t really see anything winning. In all honesty, if one film slightly makes sense, its Into The Wild, even though it got no Globes love at all. But maybe I’m underestimating the Academy’s ability to reward the deserving, and No Country will win after all. Either way, it’ll be interesting.
After the jump, my predictions, though I’m not particularly confident this time around, particularly in those occupying #5 slots.
BEST PICTURE
Locks
1. No Country For Old Men
Close Enough
2. Atonement
3. Michael Clayton
BFCA Love=Oscar Love?
4. Into The Wild
Last Slot Showdown
5. There Will Be Blood
6. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
7. Juno
8. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
9. American Gangster
Dead Before Arrival?
10. The Kite Runner
Globe Boost Ain’t Gonna Cut It
11. Charlie Wilson’s War
12. The Great Debaters
BEST DIRECTOR
Locks
1. Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men
Likely?
2. Sean Penn, Into The Wild
3. Joe Wright, Atonement
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
The Likely Lone Director…
5. Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
The Other Possible Lone Director..
6. Sidney Lumet, Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead
7. Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Am I Underestimating..
8. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
9. Ridley Scott, American Gangster
A Writer’s Film
10. Jason Reitman, Juno
BEST ACTOR
The Big 3
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
2. Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
3. George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Fragile But Holding On
4. James McAvoy, Atonement
5. Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
6. Denzel Washington, American Gangster
The Ones To Move Up
7. Frank Langella, Starting Out In The Evening
8. Emile Hirsch, Into The Wild
Slightly Possible
9. Josh Brolin, No Country For Old Men
10. Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
11. Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson’s War
BEST ACTRESS
Locks
1. Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
2. Julie Christie, Away From Her
Very Likely
3. Ellen Page, Juno
4. Amy Adams, Enchanted
Wishful Thinking?
5. Laura Linney, The Savages
All Very Possible
6. Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
7. Keira Knightley, Atonement
8. Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Could Happen More Than I’d Like To Admit
9. Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Locks
1. Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
2. Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Globes Hurt Him, But How Can He Be Denied?
4. Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild
Lots of Precursor Love
5. Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James…
Please. God. No.
6. John Travolta, Hairspray
Could Be The Big Surprise? But No Precursor Love
7. Max Von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
8. Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
Barely Possible
9. Philip Bosco, The Savages
10. Tommy Lee Jones, No Country For Old Men
11. Alan Rickman, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
12. Homayon Ershadi, The Kite Runner
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
A Shockingly Huge Lock
1. Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Fellow Locks
2. Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
3. Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Likely
4. Saorise Ronan, Atonement
Last Shot Showdown With Considerably Different Order Than Week Ago
5. Catherine Keener, Into The Wild
6. Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
7. Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
8. Jennifer Garner, Juno
9. Ruby Dee, American Gangster
10. Marisa Tomei, Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead
11. Kelly McDonald, No Country For Old Men
12. Ramola Garai, Atonement
13. Olympia Dukakis, Away From Her
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Locks
1. Diablo Cody, Juno
2. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
The Lone Savages Nod?
3. Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Four For Two
4. Brad Bird, Ratatouille
5. Kelly Masterson, Before The Devil Knows Youre Dead
6. Judd Apatow, Knocked Up
7. Steven Zaillian, American Gangster
Rising A Bit
8. Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
9. Steven Knight, Eastern Promises
Slightly Possible
10. Todd Haynes, I’m Not There
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Locks
1. Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men
2. Christopher Hampton, Atonement
I Can’t See Any Of Them Not Being Nominated But…
3. Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
4. Sean Penn, Into The Wild
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
6. Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson’s War
Please?!
8. Sarah Polley, Away From Her
Too Crowded
9. David Benioff, The Kite Runner
10. James Vanderbilt, Zodiac
11. John Logan, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
12. Ben Affleck & Aaron Stockard, Gone Baby Gone
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