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Reverse Shot: Your Source for Oscar MANIA!

Reverse Shot: Your Source for Oscar MANIA!

L’Iceberg sails into Oscar’s open arms.

Pundits have been begging “No!” (why, because we’re always right?), but we’re going to ballsily throw our hats into the ring for this Sunday’s 80th Academy Awards ceremony. The little voices in our heads may have tried to talk us out of it, but readers’ mail like these forced us to once again take up the prediction baton:
“Dear Reverse Shit [sic], thank you so much for your predixions [sic] for last year’s Oscar Awards—I won enough money in Oscar pool at work to finally pay for my cataract oparation [sic]. Keep up the good work.” – “Lil’ Mo Beckstein.

And then there was this one that came to us Air Mail, crumpled up with sunflower seed shells scattered in the pocket of its tattered envelope:
“Dear Reverse Slop [sic], I simply cannot tell you how inspiring you’ve been to me. I had given up hope that Banlop Lomnoi would receive a surprise write-in best-actor win for his fascinating, delicate, literally transformative performance as a gay man-beast in Tropical Malady. And lo and behold, you predicted it! I’ll never forget the dazed look on Banlop’s face as he accepted his award and stared dumbfounded at the camera for a full thirty seconds. Take that, Anna Paquin!” – Sally Kirkland.

We can’t disappoint our fans, so, without further ado, here are Reverse Shot’s official, thoroughly researched, pragmatic, and sobering predictions for the big prizes at this weekend’s Academy Awards, the organization that chose Forrest Gump over Pulp Fiction, Ron Howard over David Lynch and Robert Altman, and Braveheart over close competition from a banana and a stapler.

Best Picture: As everyone’s been saying, this is Joel and Ethan Coen’s to lose. But if they do, it’ll probably be to Ten Canoes, surprisingly the first Aboriginal film ever to be nominated for the top award. Pundits are saying that its chance to upset has been spurred on by Palm Pictures’ sly marketing campaign—just last week plastered all over the inside cover of Variety, accompanying a picture of star Peter Minygululu, was the catchphrase that’s put to bed thoughts of milkshakes: “Ten canoes, three wives, one hundred and fifty spears…trouble!” The rest of the nominees are starting to feel like also-rans: Gbravica: The Land of My Dreams and Day Night Day Night are just in it for the post-game parties at this point, but if there’s vote splitting between No Country and Ten Canoes, then there’s the outside chance of Color Me Kubrick coming in for a sneak attack—revered director (Kubrick) + beloved star (Malkovich) + niche success (one week at IFC Center) + Day & Date release (you can see it on TV, too!)? You do the math…

Best Actor: James Gandolfini’s surprising snub (for the long delayed but loved long-time Romance & Cigarettes) left this race wide open. Luckily, all the nominees are not only from warmly embraced films, they’re also household names, or in a couple cases soon will be: perennial nominee Lee Kang-Sheng (doing brave double duty in I Don’t Want to Sleep Alone, and getting two nods in the process), Samuel Boidin (lovable, vulnerable, hulking man-child of Flandres), Joe Souza (memorable as cock on the left in Naked Boys Singing), and, last but never least, Tobin Bell, mainly for that autopsy scene, in Saw IV; and if you think he doesn’t have a chance due to limited screen time, tell it to Beatrice Straight. Prediction: Expect a split between both Lee Kang-Shengs and for Bell to prevail, finalement!

Best Actress: Lucy Tulugarjuk has swept every single critics’ award so far this season for her minimalist, Kaurismaki-esque turn in L’Iceberg, so common wisdom would tell you she’s a shoo-in. Not likely. Due to her recent myriad unmentionable scandals (so indelicately splashed all over Page Six), Tulugarjuk is more likely to be run out of town on a rail come Sunday (Oscar lover Bill O’Reilly’s already calling for a good ol-fashun lynchin’); which only further goes to prove that she is indeed, as People magazine dubbed her way back in May, the New Ingrid Bergman. Instead, Oscar may be looking for someone more wholesome: all sights turn to Rita Wilson. Most insiders and critics and fellow macramé aficionados agree that it’s her turn for the award, after paying her dues in the business for decades. And lo and behold, she was in a movie this year: Chad Lowe’s Beautiful Ohio, which, though still unreleased, did show at the Newport Beach International Film Festival in April. With a heavyweight like Wilson, Ellen Page, Julie Christie, and Marion Cotillard can kiss their dreams goodbye.

Write in to us with your thoughts on this year’s cutthroat awards ceremony, and tell us which films you think will win and which deserve to be put out with Monday morning’s garbage. Viva l’Oscar!

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