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Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win & Who Should Win

Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win & Who Should Win

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indieWIRE polled our own writers as well as many of our criticWIRE participants, asking for their picks regarding who will and who should win this year’s Academy Awards. In thirteen categories, our insiders suggested who might take home an award at the ceremony at this Sunday night’s 82nd ceremony, as well as their wishful thinking.

indieWIRE‘s own picks in every category were published last week.

In general, the 28 voters seemed to think things are looking rather predictable. Jeff Bridges, Sandra Bullock, Mo’Nique and Christoph Waltz all seem like clear favorites for the acting trophies, while the “Avatar” vs. “The Hurt Locker” showdown had a definite consensus as well: Seventy-seven percent said “The Hurt Locker.”

Suspense was a bit more evident in a couple of the races though, namely best original screenplay – where voters suggested a tight, tight race between “The Hurt Locker”‘s Mark Boal and “Inglourious Basterds”‘s Quentin Tarantino.

As for who should win, things were a lot more spread out. “Inglourious Basterds,” “The Hurt Locker” and “A Serious Man” seriously split the best picture hopes, and while Mo’Nique, Jeff Bridges and Christoph Waltz all managed to pull off both will and should honors from our poll, Bullock placed last in the “should win” poll, losing out to Gabourey Sidibe.

Check out all the results below, followed by links to each individual ballot.

Best Picture
Who Will Win: The “Avatar” or “The Hurt Locker” question got a clear answer from those polled: “The Hurt Locker” took 77% of the vote, while “Avatar” too 23%.

Who Should Win: It was much more spread out when it came to who folks thought deserved the big prize, with 30% saying “Inglourious Basterds”, 26% of the vote going to both “The Hurt Locker” and “A Serious Man,” and “Up,” “Up In The Air,” “Avatar,” “District 9” and “Precious” eaching taking a lone shout out.

Best Director
Who Will Win: It’s Kathryn Bigelow for the win, with 96% calling for the “Hurt Locker” director to take this prize. Bigelow’s ex James Cameron took the remaining 4%.

Who Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow again, though with a less dominating 65% of the support. Quentin Tarantino took 23%, while Lee Daniels, James Cameron and Jason Reitman each found 4%.

Best Actress
Who Will Win: “The Blind Side”‘s Sandra Bullock is the strong favorite here, taking 70% of the predictions. Meryl Streep is her closest competitor with 26%, and Helen Mirren somehow managed a sole dark horse shout-out for her work on “The Last Station.”

Who Should Win: Bullock’s not so in luck with the poll’s wishful thinking, taking only one vote. It was Gabourey Sidibe that found most of the support, edging out Meryl Streep 33%-30% for her work on “Precious.” Carey Mulligan (19%) and Helen Mirren (8%) each found votes as well.

Best Actor
Who Will Win: All but one of those polled said the Oscar will go to “Crazy Heart”‘s Jeff Bridges. “The Hurt Locker”‘s Jeremy Renner got the sole upset prediction.

Who Should Win: 38% said Jeff Bridges, though both Colin Firth (31%) and Jeremy Renner (23%) had significant support as well.

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: The easy calls continue with easiest of them all: 100% said Mo’Nique is taking this home, the only category to receive a complete sweep of the votes.

Who Should Win: Mo’Nique appears to deserve her frontunner status, according to 76% of voters. Vera Farmiga (12%), Maggie Gyllenhaal (8%) and Anna Kendrick (4%) all got shout outs as well (sorry, Penelope).

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Though two voters suggested Christopher Plummer would shock come Oscar night, everyone else lent their prognostication to “Inglourious Basterds”‘s Christoph Waltz

Who Should Win: 70% thought Christoph Waltz deserved it, with Woody Harrelson managing 26% of the rest of the vote (“Invictus”‘s Matt Damon made up the remaining 4%).

Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: It appears to be a very tight race, but Mark Boal’s script for “The Hurt Locker” narrowly beat Quentin Tarnatino’s work on “Inglourious Basterds” by a 54%-43% margin. Joel & Ethan Coen’s “A Serious Man” screenplay got one dark horse vote.

Who Should Win: “A Serious Man” and “Inglourious Basterds” tied for the most support, each taking 37%. All the remaining nominees found votes as well, with “The Messenger” and “The Hurt Locker” taking 11% and “Up” 4%.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner’s “Up In The Air” screenplay is looking good for Sunday night, with 93% of the predictions. Geoffrey Fletcher’s “Precious” screenplay found the remaining 7% of the vote.

Who Should Win: Reitman and Turner only found 28% of the support here, with our poll overwhelmingly finding Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, and Tony Roche’s work on “In The Loop” the deserved winner here, taking 56% of the support.

Best Animated Film
Who Will Win: Third in a row for Pixar, says our poll: “Up” took 96% of predictions, with one brave soul vouching for “Fantastic Mr. Fox.”

Who Should Win: “Fantastic Mr. Fox” fared better here, with 54% of the “should win” votes. “Up” took 27%, “Coraline” took 12% and “The Secret of Kells” found 4%.

Best Foreign Language Film
Who Will Win: Predictions were pretty spread out here, though Michael Haneke’s “The White Ribbon” appears to have the lead with 54% of the predictions. Argentina’s “El Secreto de Sus Ojos” found 31% and both “A Prophet” and “Ajami” took 8%.

Who Should Win: Jacques Audiard’s “A Prophet” is the best in 68% of those polled’s eyes, with all four other films finding support as well: “The White Ribbon” had 18%, while “Secreto,” “Ajami” and “The Milk of Sorrow” each took 5%.

Best Documentary Feature
Who Will Win: An overwhelming 92% say “The Cove”

Who Should Win: Four films split this vote, with “The Cove” taking a leading 45%. “Burma VJ” and “Food, Inc.” each found 20%, and “The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers” had 15%.

Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: Mauro Fiore’s work on “Avatar” takes it, says 56% of our poll, though Christian Berger’s “White Ribbon” and Barry Ackroyd’s “Hurt Locker” work each found 22% of the votes to potentially upset.

Who Should Win: A tie between “The White Ribbon” and “Inglourious Basterds”, with each taking 27% of the support. Just behind was another tie, between “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker,” and with 22% of the vote. Sorry, “Nine.”

Best Art Direction
Who Will Win: It’s (mostly) all about “Avatar”, with 92% saying its heading for the win here. “The Young Victoria” and “Sherlock Holmes” split the rest of the predictions.

Who Should Win: “Avatar” apparently deserves it too, says 60% of our poll. All four of the other nominees found votes as well, with 12% going for “Nine” and “Sherlock Holmes,” 8% for “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” and 4% for “Nine.”

Check out all of the individual ballots below, which also include their picks for the Spirit Awards:

Erica Abeel
John Anderson
Brian Brooks
Dwight Brown
Mike D’Angelo
Aaron Dobbs
Ed Gonzalez
Andrew Grant
Tim Grierson
Eugene Hernandez
Robert Horton
Caryn James
Peter Knegt
Matthew Knott
Gary Kramer
Eric Lavallee
Adam Nayman
Bryce Renninger
Joshua Rothkopf
David Sterritt
Sasha Stone
Robert Sweeney
Kristopher Tapley
Charles Taylor
Anne Thompson
Elizabeth Weitzman
Christopher Wisniewski
Susan Wloszczyna

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