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Gotham Award Predictions

Gotham Award Predictions

Monday afternoon at 1pm EST, indieWIRE will be bringing you IFP’s announcement of the 20th Annual Gotham Independent Film Award nominations.

In anticipation, I figured I’d go into predictor mode with the four main categories (’tis the first nomination announcement of the season, so my awards geek heart goes a flutter). The Gothams are notoriously challenging to predict as they often go in totally unexpected directions, so please keep that in mind. Last year’s nominations for best feature, for example, saw “Amreeka” and “Big Fan” unexpectedly joining “The Hurt Locker,” “The Maid” and “A Serious Man” to the exclusion of films like “Precious,” “Goodbye Solo” and “The Messenger.” So who knows what’ll happen Monday. But my best guess is after the jump. Note it is based on these eligibility rules, and assumes a few films – like “The Social Network” and “127 Hours” – are ineligible because they cost too much to make. I also have no idea what films that haven’t been released yet submitted, but I assume “Black Swan,” “Rabbit Hole” and “Blue Valentine” all did).

Best Feature:
Black Swan
Blue Valentine
The Kids Are All Right
Rabbit Hole
Winter’s Bone

Best Documentary:
Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work
Marwencol
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting For “Superman”

Best Cast Ensemble:
Black Swan
Cyrus
Get Low
The Kids Are All Right
Please Give

Best Breakthrough Director:
Derek Cianfrance, Blue Valentine
Lena Durham, Tiny Furniture
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Jack Goes Boating
Brian Koppelman and David Levien, Solitary Man
Aaron Schneider, Get Low

Best Breakthrough Performance:
Josh Hutcherson, The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Ezra Miller, City Island
Miles Teller, Rabbit Hole
Mia Wasikowska, The Kids Are All Right

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