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Weekly Oscar Prediction Update: 20/10/10

Weekly Oscar Prediction Update: 20/10/10

Here’s yet another weekly update of the Oscar prediction charts to supplement Wednesday’s awards column on indieWIRE (which this week goes in a different direction than Oscar and looks at the Gotham Award nominations). There’s not a whole lot of tinkering – though “Winter’s Bone” does get a bit of a boost from all the Gotham love, “The Fighter” seems a bit more hopeful due to that new trailer (and a few whispers), and there’s definitely some other thoughts that have shifted here and there. In a week or two I’ll do a full on update with commentary for the major categories, but in the meantime these charts are all that time allows. So here’s Oscar predictions with 8 of the major categories ranked in order of personal preference of probability + a weekly “special edition” (animated feature is this week’s). This’ll go on between now and nomination morning. Obviously, some weeks will have more to offer than others. But for what it’s worth, here’s what I think is gonna go down, with the predicted nominees in bold.. and note that #1 is not necessarily the predicted winner, just the most likely to get a nomination. The previous week’s ranking is in brackets beside it.

BEST PICTURE
1. The King’s Speech (1)
2. The Social Network (2)
3. Inception (3)
4. Toy Story 3 (4)
5. The Kids Are All Right (6)
6. 127 Hours (5)
7. The Fighter (10)
8. True Grit (8)
9. Another Year (7)
10. Winter’s Bone (15)

11. Black Swan (9)
12. The Way Back (16)
13. Made in Dagenham (12)
14. Secretariat (11)
15. Rabbit Hole (13)
16. How Do You Know? (17)
17. The Town (14)
18. Love and Other Drugs (19)
19. Blue Valentine (-)
20. Somewhere (20)

The rest of the categories after the jump.

BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, The Social Network (1)
2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech (2)
3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3)
4. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (4)
5. Christopher Nolan, Inception (5)

6. Mike Leigh, Another Year (6)
7. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (8)
8. David O. Russell, The Fighter (9)
9. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (7)
10. Debra Granik, Winter’s Bone (-)

BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech (1)
2. James Franco, 127 Hours (2)
3. Jeff Bridges, True Grit (3)
4. Robert Duvall, Get Low (4)
5. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (5)

6. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (7)
7. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter (9)
8. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (8)
9. Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole (7)
10. Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (-)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (1)
2. Lesley Manville, Another Year (4)
3. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (2)
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (3)
5. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (5)

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone (7)
7. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham (6)
8. Diane Lane, Secretariat (8)
9. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (10)
10. Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (9)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (1)
2. Christian Bale, The Fighter (3)
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (2)
4. Matt Damon, True Grit (4)
5. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (5)

6. John Malkovich, Secretariat (6)
7. Ed Harris, The Way Back (-)
8. Jeremy Renner, The Town (7)
9. Bill Murray, Get Low (8)
10. John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone (-)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech (1)
2. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole (2)
3. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham (3)
4. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (6)
5. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (4)

6. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (6)
7. Amy Adams, The Fighter (8)
8. Kimberely Elise, For Colored Girls (-)
9. Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (7)
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Way Back (10)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. The King’s Speech (1)
2. The Kids Are All Right (2)
3. Another Year (3)
4. Inception (4)
5. How Do You Know? (5)

6. The Fighter (7)
7. Made in Dagenham (7)
8. Black Swan (6)
9. Somewhere (9)
10. Blue Valentine (10)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Social Network (1)
2. Toy Story 3 (2)
3. True Grit (3)
4. Rabbit Hole (4)
5. Winter’s Bone (6)

6. 127 Hours (5)
7. The Way Back (9)
8. How To Train Your Dragon (8)
9. For Colored Girls (-)
10. Love and Other Drugs (10)

BEST ANIMATED FILM
1. Toy Story 3
2. How To Train Your Dragon
3. The Illusionist

4. Despicable Me
5. Tangled
6. Shrek Forever After

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