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Weekly Oscar Prediction Update: 27/10/10

Weekly Oscar Prediction Update: 27/10/10

Here’s yet another weekly update of the Oscar prediction charts to supplement Wednesday’s awards column on indieWIRE (which this week discusses the idea of a documentary best picture nomination). The main adjustments this week – and there are few – come care of:

-The reviews for “Love & Other Drugs,” which were decent out of the gate, and then generally mixed (and occasionally terrible) a few days later. It’s looking unlikely but not it’s definitely not completely out of the race… If it really takes off at the box office, it’s possible it could rise up – particularly for alleged best in show Anne Hathaway.
-“Frankie & Alice” has entered the Oscar race at the very last minute, with a performance by Halle Berry as a woman with a multiple personality disorder its big strength.
-“For Colored Girls” is not getting the reviews it needed to be much of a player.
-“Secretariat”‘s Oscar-related buzz seems to be slumping.
-A trailer for “Rabbit Hole” reminded me of how great that film and generating a wee bit of late-October buzz.
-I also for some reason totally forgot about “Conviction”‘s Sam Rockwell on last week’s chart, and he’s vaulted to prediction status this week.
-Thanks to Hathaway and Berry, I added an extra 5 contenders to the crazy-competitive best actress chart, where I’ve switched out Julianne Moore for Jennifer Lawrence in a continuing quest to have a grasp on that category.

In a week or two I’ll do a full on update with commentary for the major categories, but in the meantime these charts are all that time allows. So here’s Oscar predictions with 8 of the major categories ranked in order of personal preference of probability + a weekly “special edition” (documentary is this week’s). This’ll go on between now and nomination morning. Obviously, some weeks will have more to offer than others. But for what it’s worth, here’s what I think is gonna go down, with the predicted nominees in bold.. and note that #1 is not necessarily the predicted winner, just the most likely to get a nomination. The previous week’s ranking is in brackets beside it.

BEST PICTURE
1. The King’s Speech (1)
2. The Social Network (2)
3. Inception (3)
4. Toy Story 3 (4)
5. The Kids Are All Right (5)
6. 127 Hours (6)
7. The Fighter (7)
8. True Grit (8)
9. Another Year (9)
10. Winter’s Bone (10)

11. Rabbit Hole (15)
12. The Way Back (12)
13. Black Swan (11)
14. Made in Dagenham (13)
15. Secretariat (14)
16. How Do You Know? (16)
17. The Town (17)
18. Blue Valentine (19)
19. Waiting For Superman (-)
20. Love and Other Drugs (18)

The rest of the categories after the jump.

BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, The Social Network (1)
2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech (2)
3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3)
4. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (4)
5. Christopher Nolan, Inception (5)

6. Mike Leigh, Another Year (6)
7. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (7)
8. David O. Russell, The Fighter (8)
9. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (9)
10. John Cameron Mitchell, Rabbit Hole (-)

BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech (1)
2. James Franco, 127 Hours (2)
3. Jeff Bridges, True Grit (3)
4. Robert Duvall, Get Low (4)
5. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (6)

6. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (5)
7. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter (7)
8. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (8)
9. Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole (9)
10. Paul Giamatti, Barney’s Version (-)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (1)
2. Lesley Manville, Another Year (2)
3. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (4)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone (6)

6. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (5)
7. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham (7)
8. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (9)
9. Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (10)
10. Diane Lane, Secretariat (8)
11. Reese Witherspoon, How Do You Know? (-)
12. Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (-)
13. Naomi Watts, Fair Game (-)
14. Gwenyth Paltrow, Country Strong (-)
15. Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (-)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (1)
2. Christian Bale, The Fighter (2)
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (3)
4. Matt Damon, True Grit (4)
5. Sam Rockwell, Conviction (-)

6. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (5)
7. Jeremy Renner, The Town (8)
8. Ed Harris, The Way Back (7)
9. Bill Murray, Get Low (9)
10. John Malkovich, Secretariat (6)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech (1)
2. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole (2)
3. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham (3)
4. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (4)
5. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (5)

6. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (6)
7. Amy Adams, The Fighter (7)
8. Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, The Way Back (10)
10. Elle Fanning, Somewhere (-)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. The King’s Speech (1)
2. The Kids Are All Right (2)
3. Another Year (3)
4. Inception (4)
5. How Do You Know? (5)

6. The Fighter (6)
7. Made in Dagenham (7)
8. Black Swan (8)
9. Blue Valentine (10)
10. Somewhere (9)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Social Network (1)
2. Toy Story 3 (2)
3. Rabbit Hole (4)
4. True Grit (3)
5. Winter’s Bone (5)

6. 127 Hours (6)
7. The Way Back (7)
8. How To Train Your Dragon (8)
9. Barney’s Version (-)
10. Love and Other Drugs (10)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Waiting For Superman
2. Inside Job
3. Restrepo
4. A Film Unfinished
5. The Tillman Story

6. Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work
7. 12th & Delaware
8. The Oath
9. Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Elliot Spitzer
10. Exit Through The Gift Shop

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