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Post-Critics Award Blitz Oscar Predictions

Post-Critics Award Blitz Oscar Predictions

Today begs an Oscar prediction update, even if I’m hardly in the mood to offer one. In less than 48 hours, we’ve seen a boatload of critics awards announce and it’s just a storm before another storm: Chicago Film Critics, London Film Critics, the SAG nominations, and the Golden Globe nominations are all due in the next day or two. So what just happened? And what’s about to happen? Unfortunately, it all looks pretty boring and predictable to me. And what’s NOT predictable is unfortunate, because it’s the snubbing of some of the year’s best work in favor of mediocre mainstream fair (though, let’s face it, that’s also predictable).

In the past couple days, it’s really been all “The Social Network,” “The Social Network,” “The Social Network.” Yes, “True Grit,” “Black Swan,” “The King’s Speech,” “Inception,” “Toy Story 3,” “The Fighter” and “Winter’s Bone” have all also fared well, and more or less all seem like very strong bets for best picture nominations at this point, but on the whole “The Social Network” has been made clear the critics choice with wins in LA, Boston, NBR, NYFCO, and DC and nominations or mentions with Indiana, BFCA, AFI, Houston, and Detroit. Even if I was a big fan of David Fincher’s film (which I’m not… I admire lots about it – Eisenberg and Garfield’s performance and Reznor and Ross’s score more than anything – but I find it a flawed film that loses considerable steam in its third act), I’d be annoyed the lack of diversity in this year’s selection.

So where has that left us? With a pretty all-but-certain Oscar race. A bunch of films that went into this weekend looking mildly iffy – “The Town,” “127 Hours,” “Black Swan,” “The Fighter” – are now very good bets for best picture (though not all locks). And one film looking like a lock not too long ago – “The Kids Are All Right” – is hanging in there after being snubbed by the Critics Choice and finding a general lack of enthusiasm elsewhere, until of course the New York Critics gave it a major boost this afternoon.. Also set back by the past few days: Lesley Manville and Tilda Swinton, who give my two favourite performances this year in “Another Year” and “I Am Love,” and Dianne Weist and Matt Damon, who aren’t far behind them for their work in “Rabbit Hole” and “True Grit.”

On a happier note, the likes of Jacki Weaver, and Jesse Eisenberg are now looking better than ever for nominations (and maybe even a win in Weaver’s case), and both “Winter’s Bone”‘s John Hawkes and “Blue Valentine” duo Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams received much needed boosts (even if their film didn’t) from the Critics Choice that have firmly put them back in the race in the lead acting categories. The next 48 hours will be even more telling, but until then, here’s what things are looking like for Oscar at this point:

1. The Social Network (2)
2. The King’s Speech (1)
3. Inception (3)
4. Toy Story 3 (4)
5. True Grit (5)
6. 127 Hours (8)
7. Black Swan (9)
8. The Fighter (6)
9. Winter’s Bone (10)
10. The Kids Are All Right (7)

11. The Town (13)
12. Another Year (12)
13. Rabbit Hole (11)
14. Blue Valentine (14)
15. The Ghost Writer (15)

The rest of the categories after the jump.

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (1)
2. Christopher Nolan, Inception (3)
3. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (4)
4. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech (2)
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (5)

6. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (6)
7. Debra Granik, Winter’s Bone (-)
8. David O. Russell, The Fighter (7)
9. Ben Affleck, The Town (9)
10. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (8)

1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech (1)
2. Jeff Bridges, True Grit (3)
3. James Franco, 127 Hours (2)
4. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (4)
5. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5)

6. Robert Duvall, Get Low (6)
7. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter (8)
8. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (9)
9. Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole (7)
10. Leonardo diCaprio, Inception (10)

1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (1)
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (3)
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone (4)
5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (6)

6. Lesley Manville, Another Year (5)
7. Noomi Rapace, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (-)
8. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (7)
9. Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (10)
10. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham (8)

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter (1)
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (2)
3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (4)
4. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (3)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Town (6)

6. Sam Rockwell, Conviction (9)
7. John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone (-)
8. Matt Damon, True Grit (5)
9. Bill Murray, Get Low (8)
10. Ed Harris, The Way Back (7)

1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (3)
2. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (2)
3. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (6)
4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech (1)
5. Amy Adams, The Fighter (5)

6. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole (4)
7. Mila Kunis, Black Swan (-)
8. Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (-)
9. Juliette Lewis, Conviction (-)
10. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham (8)

1. The King’s Speech (1)
2. Inception (4)
3. The Kids Are All Right (2)
4. Another Year (3)
5. Black Swan (5)

6. Blue Valentine (6)
7. The Fighter (7)
8. Animal Kingdom (10)
9. Get Low (9)
10. Biutiful (-)

1. The Social Network (1)
2. Toy Story 3 (2)
3. True Grit (3)
4. Winter’s Bone (4)
5. 127 Hours (6)

6. The Town (7)
7. Rabbit Hole (5)
8. The Ghost Writer (10)
9. How To Train Your Dragon (9)
10. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (-)

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