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For Your Consideration: Predicting The Golden Globes

For Your Consideration: Predicting The Golden Globes

Ah, the Golden Globes. As Oscar’s drunken, unpredictable cousin, the first major awards show of the season is also, more often than not, the most entertaining with the return of host Ricky Gervais and the promise of unforeseen winners, rowdy acceptance speeches and the most enthusiastic celebrity bootlicking this side of the People’s Choice Awards.

The ceremony takes place Sunday night at the Beverly Hilton in Los Angeles, and will air live on NBC. For our part, indieWIRE is devoting this week’s edition of “For Your Consideration” to a rundown of all the potential film winners (for predictions on the TV winners, click here).

Best Picture – Drama
The Nominees: “Black Swan,” “The Fighter,” “Inception,” “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network”
Who Should Win: “Black Swan,” but “The Social Network” seems to have the consensus vote.
Who Will Win: It’s surprisingly unclear. While “The Social Network” has the momentum, this is the opportunity for “The King’s Speech” to gain some serious Oscar traction and it’s the kind of film the Globes have rewarded in the past (see “Atonement” in 2008, which won over “No Country For Old Men,” a film that had a similar critics award sweep as “The Social Network”). It’s definitely not a lock, but “The King’s Speech” is the play-it-safe prediction.

Best Picture – Comedy or Musical
The Nominees: “Alice in Wonderland,” “Burlesque,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “Red,” “The Tourist”
Who Should Win: Clearly, “The Kids Are All Right.” Anything else would be horrifying.
Who Will Win: If the Globes want to spare themselves some serious embarrassment, “The Kids Are All Right,” though I suppose “Alice in Wonderland” would be the potential spoiler as uber-populist fare has a history of doing very well here.

A scene from Darren Aronofsky’s “Black Swan”

Best Actress – Drama
The Nominees: Halle Berry, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence, Natalie Portman, Michelle Williams
Who Should Win: Aside from Ms. Berry, all four of these nominated women offer exceptionally worthy performances and I’d honestly be happy with any of them winning.
Who Will Win: Anyone other than “Swan” queen Natalie Portman would be a pretty big shock.

Best Actress – Comedy or Musical
The Nominees: Annette Bening, Anne Hathaway, Angelina Jolie, Julianne Moore, Emma Stone
Who Should Win: Either of “The Kids Are All Right” women – Annette Bening and Julianne Moore – would be all right with me.
Who Will Win: Annette Bening, setting up the Natalie vs. Annette Oscar showdown.

Best Actor – Drama
The Nominees: Jesse Eisenberg, Colin Firth, James Franco, Ryan Gosling, Mark Wahlberg
Who Should Win: This is quite the quintet of excellent work, but its least-famous member, Jesse Eisenberg, is narrowly the most deserving (though being the least-famous anything at the Golden Globes doesn’t bode well).
Who Will Win: After losing this award last year for his work in “A Single Man” to Jeff Bridges for “Crazy Heart” (oddly snubbed this time for “True Grit”), Colin Firth is a very good bet for “The King’s Speech,” with James Franco the possible spoiler.

Best Actor – Comedy or Musical
The Nominees: Johnny Depp, Johnny Depp, Paul Giamatti, Jake Gyllenhaal, Kevin Spacey
Who Should Win: Uh… From Jim Carrey (“I Love You, Phillip Morris”) to John C. Reilly (“Cyrus”) to Stephen Dorff (“Somewhere”), this category snubbed some of the year’s most deserving in favor of a very undeserving double nomination for Johnny Depp.
Who Will Win: Johnny Depp? No offense to the often-excellent actor, but “Alice in Wonderland” and “The Tourist” are not his best works. But it seems quite possible the double nominee might take the Globe home for his over-the-top work in “Alice,” which was a huge box office hit; such a win would be sure to please mainstream television viewers. I’ll take a gamble, though, and suggest the Globes will go in a different direction. Despite six nominations (and two wins at the Oscars), “Casino Jack” star Kevin Spacey has never won a Globe, so perhaps Depp will split his own vote and Spacey’s work as Jack Abramoff will finally get him on the Golden stage.

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Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Amy Adams, Helena Bonham Carter, Mila Kunis, Melissa Leo, Jacki Weaver
Who Should Win: Jacki Weaver. Kudos to the Globes for recognizing her work in the $1 million-grossing Australian indie, despite a lot of competition.
Who Will Win: The toughest call of the night. Weaver and Kunis are the definite underdogs (though not impossibilities), with “The Fighter” women Amy Adams and Melissa Leo duking it out with Helena Bonham Carter (the least deserving nominee, as far as I’m concerned) in a true three-woman race. Carter is in the Globes’ most-nominated film (and has been nominated five previous times without winning), and Adams has the most starpower, but my very shaky prediction sees Melissa Leo continuing to build Oscar momentum with a win here.

Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Christian Bale, Michael Douglas, Andrew Garfield, Jeremy Renner, Geoffrey Rush
Who Should Win:Andrew Garfield for “Social Network.” Most would probably say Christian Bale, but I found his work veering too close to caricature.
Who Will Win: One of the safest bets of the night is Christian Bale winning here as he makes one more step toward his inevitable Oscar.

Best Director
The Nominees: Darren Aronofsky, David Fincher, Tom Hooper, Christopher Nolan, David O. Russell
Who Should Win: “Black Swan” director and first-time Globe nominee Darren Aronofsky.
Who Will Win: While “Social Network” might not be a sure thing in the best picture category, it seems like its director David Fincher is a much safer bet here.

Best Screenplay
The Nominees: “127 Hours,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “Inception,” “The King’s Speech,” “The Social Network”
Who Should Win: Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg’s script for “The Kids Are All Right.” Consistently funny and unexpectedly powerful, its a perfect merger of indie sensibility and mainstream accessibility.
Who Will Win: Aaron Sorkin for “The Social Network,” by far the most celebrated screenplay of the year.

Tilda Swinton in “I Am Love”

Best Foreign-Language Film
The Nominees: “Biutiful,” “The Concert,” “The Edge,” “I Am Love,” “In a Better World.”
Who Should Win: No contest: “I Am Love.” Luca Guadagnino’s cinematic opera is by far the best option.
Who Will Win: The Globes actually have a pretty good track record in this category and certainly outshine the Academy in getting it more-or-less right. Recent examples like “Talk To Her,” “Paradise Now,” “Waltz With Bashir” and “The White Ribbon” make one hopeful that “Love” will prevail, though Alejandro González Iñárritu’s “Biutiful” is the safer bet. The Globes gave his “Babel” the best picture trophy in 2006, which suggests they may do so again here.

Best Animated Film
The Nominees: “Despicable Me,” “How To Train Your Dragon,” “The Illusionist,” “Tangled,” “Toy Story 3”
Who Should Win: Sylvain Chomet’s magical ode to Jacques Tati, “The Illusionist.”
Who Will Win: “Toy Story 3.” Pixar’s never lost this category in its five-year existence and they’re not going to stop the trend with a film this well-liked.

Best Original Song
The Nominees: “Bound To You” (Burlesque), “Coming Home” (Country Strong), “I See The Light” (Tangled), “There’s a Place For Us” (The Chronicles of Narnia), “You Haven’t Seen The Last of Me” (Burlesque)
Who Should Win: I can’t say I’m passionately behind any of these nominees, though either of the “Burlesque” songs would be a sufficiently entertaining winner.
Who Will Win: After four unsuccessful bids at a Golden Globe, songwriter Diane Warren is a good bet for her Cher-sung ballad “You Haven’t Seen The Last of Me.”

Best Original Score
The Nominees: “127 Hours,” “Alice in Wonderland,” “Inception,” “The King’s Speech,” “The Social Network”
Who Should Win: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’ hypnotic “Social Network” score was a character in the film in itself.
Who Will Win:: A very tough call between “Network,” “Inception” and “The King’s Speech,” with any of them feasible winners. It would be a nice opportunity to toss a bone to “Inception,” or give “Social Network” an extra one, though I’d bet Alexandre Desplat’s score for “The King’s Speech” reigns supreme in the end.

Peter Knegt is indieWIRE’s Associate Editor. Follow him on Twitter and on his blog. Check out his weekly Oscar prediction chart here.

Previous editions of this column:
For Your Consideration: If I Had An Oscar Ballot…
For Your Consideration: 60 Women That Defined “The Year of the Actress”
For Your Consideration: A Mid-December Stab at Oscar Predictions
For Your Consideration: A Guide To The Oscar Precursors
For Your Consideration: The 10 Biggest Surprises of the Spirit Award Nominations
For Your Consideration: The 10 Worst Original Song Oscar Snubs of the Past 10 Years
For Your Consideration: A Mid-November Stab at Oscar Predictions
For Your Consideration: Gauging a Crowded and Female-Friendly Spirit Award Field
For Your Consideration: Could a Documentary Be Nominated For Best Picture?
For Your Consideration: Assessing Those Gotham Award Nominations
For Your Consideration: 10 Underdog Actors
For Your Consideration: 10 Underdog Actresses
For Your Consideration: Save For “Love” Snub, Foreign Language Submissions Uncontroversial
For Your Consideration: Post-Toronto Oscar Predictions
For Your Consideration: Updating Oscar Contenders In The Eye of The Storm
For Your Consideration: 10 Things The Fall Fests Should Say About Awards Season
For Your Consideration: Assessing Oscar In The Calm Before The Storm

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