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My Oscar Predictions (Trust My Taste, Not My Math)

My Oscar Predictions (Trust My Taste, Not My Math)

IndieWire’s annual poll of critics and bloggers – a Will Win / Should Win format for the Oscars and Spirit awards – has almost arrived. Here’s a quick view of my Oscar choices:

BEST PICTURE

Will Win: The King’s Speech
Should Win: Black Swan

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win (and he should): David Fincher

BEST ACTOR

Will Win, Should Win, Let’s Get This Over With: Colin Firth

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Natalie Portman
Should Win: Annette Bening

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win and Should: Christian Bale

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win and Should Win: (surprise!) Hailee Steinfeld (although she belongs in the Best Actress category)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: The King’s Speech
Should Win: The Kids Are All Right

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will and Should Win: The Social Network (although Aaron Sorkin should be in the Original Screenplay category)

I’ll stand by my judgments about who should win, but don’t put money on my guesses about what’s likely to happen. There are people who scope out awards season like mathematicians cross-bred with detectives. I read them, wouldn’t want to be them (the math makes my head ache).

For starters, check out the invaluable site Awards Daily, which has a huge chart compiling predictions from 41 critics. I happen to know that some can even do math.

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