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Oscars 2011: Who Will Win & Who Should Win

Oscars 2011: Who Will Win & Who Should Win

indieWIRE polled its writers as well as a number of its criticWIRE participants, asking for their picks regarding who will and who should win this year’s Academy Awards. In thirteen categories, insiders suggested who might take home an award at the ceremony at this Sunday night’s 83rd ceremony, as well as their wishful thinking.

indieWIRE‘s own picks in every category were published earlier this week.

In general, the 29 voters seemed to think things are looking rather predictable. Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, and Christian Bale all seem like clear favorites for the acting trophies, while the “The Social Network” vs. “The King’s Speech” showdown had a definite consensus as well: Eighty-six percent said “The King’s Speech.”

Suspense was a bit more evident in a couple of the races though, namely best foreign language film – where voters suggested a tight race between “Biutiful,” “Incendies” and “In a Better World.” And while best supporting actress saw a slight majority pick “The Fighter”‘s Melissa Leo, both “The King’s Speech”‘s Helena Bonham Carter and “True Grit”‘s Hailee Steinfeld got a fair share of the predictions.

As for who should win, things were a lot more spread out. “The Social Network,” “Black Swan,” “Winter’s Bone” and “True Grit” all split the best picture hopes, and while Christian Bale managed to pull off both will and should honors from iW’s poll, Jesse Eisenberg, Hailee Steinfeld and an even-split between Portman and Annette Bening were the top choices in the rest of the acting categories.

Check out all the results below, followed by links to each individual ballot.

Best Picture
Who Will Win: The “The King’s Speech” ruled with 86% of the vote, easily defeating “The Social Network”‘s 10%. Meanwhile, a gutsy sole voter opted for “Inception.”

Who Should Win: It was much more spread out when it came to who folks thought deserved the big prize, with 32% saying “The Social Network”, 21% of the vote going to both “Black Swan,” and 14% going to both “Winter’s Bone” and “True Grit.” “Toy Story 3,” “The King’s Speech,” “The Fighter,” and “Inception” all got votes as well.

Best Director
Who Will Win: It’s David Fincher for the win, with 83% calling for “The Social Network” director to take this prize. DGA winner Tom Hooper took the remaining 17%.

Who Should Win: David Fincher again, though with a less dominating 61% of the support. Darren Aronofsky took 29%, while David O. Russell, Joel & Ethan Coen and Tom Hooper each found 3%.

Best Actress
Who Will Win: “Black Swan”‘s Natalie Portman is the strong favorite here, taking 93% of the predictions. Annette Bening is her closest and only competitor with 7%.

Who Should Win: Natalie Portman and Annette Bening tied here, each taking 25% in an incredibly spread out range of votes. All five nominees had considerable support, with Michelle Williams taking 21%, Jennifer Lawrence taking 18%, and Nicole Kidman taking 11%. A testament to what a strong lineup this is.

Best Actor
Who Will Win: Each and every voter agreed Colin Firth has this in bag.

Who Should Win: 43% said “The Social Network”‘s Jesse Eisenberg deserved this, though everyone found support: Colin Firth (21%), Javier Bardem (18%), James Franco (11%) and Jeff Bridges (7%) were all the favorites of a few or more of our voters.

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: The toughest of the acting categories to predict, according to those polled: 52% said Melissa Leo is taking this home, but Helena Bonham Carter (24%), Hailee Steinfeld (17%) and Amy Adams (7%) all had their fair share of prognostication.

Who Should Win: It’s spread out pretty considerably here too. Hailee Steinfeld took 39% of the vote, but Jacki Weaver (29%), Amy Adams (21%) and Melissa Leo (11%) all got shout outs as well (sorry, Helena).

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Though one voter suggested Geoffrey Rush would shock come Oscar night, everyone else lent their votes to “The Fighter”‘s Christian Bale

Who Should Win: 39% thought Christian Bale deserved it, with John Hawkes (25%), Mark Ruffalo (18%) and Geoffrey Rush (18%) all getting support as well.

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Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: “The King’s Speech” is looking pretty good here, taking 86% of the votes over “The Kids and All Right” and “Inception,” which each took 7% as potential spoilers.

Who Should Win: Not so much “The King’s Speech,” as that film took only 7% as its fellow British production “Another Year” saw 43% of voters vouch for Mike Leigh to win his first Oscar. “The Kids Are All Right” and “Inception” also had lots of support, taking 25% of the vote each.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: Another sweep: Aaron Sorkin’s script for “The Social Network” had everyone’s vote.

Who Should Win: “The Social Network” and Sorkin found a strong 71% of the support here, though “True Grit” (14%), “Toy Story 3” (7%), “Winter’s Bone” (3%) and “127 Hours” (3%) all got votes too.

Best Animated Film
Who Will Win: Fourth in a row for Pixar, says our poll: “Toy Story 3” took 100% of predictions.

Who Should Win: “Toy Story 3” took a less overwhelming 69% here, with many opting for “The Illusionist” (19%) and “How To Train Your Dragon (12%).

Best Foreign Language Film
Who Will Win: Predictions were very spread out here, with Denmark’s “In a Better World” (36%) the narrow favorite over Canada’s “Incendies” (32%) and Mexico’s “Biutiful” (29%).

Who Should Win: It won’t happen, but Greece’s “Dogtooth” was most folks’ wishful thinking, taking 48% of the vote. “Incendies” (22%), “In a Better World” (19%) and “Biutiful” (11%) all had fans as well.

Best Documentary Feature
Who Will Win: Also a tight race, with Charles Ferguson’s “Inside Job” the favorite at 48% of predictions. Close behind, though, was “Exit Through the Gift Shop” (31%), and both “Restrepo” (14%) and “Waste Land” (7%) had votes too.

Who Should Win: Bansky’s “Exit Through the Gift Shop” took 63% of the votes, topping “Inside Job” (19%), “Waste Land” (11%) and “Restrepo” (7%).

Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: Roger Deakins’s work on “True Grit” looks to finally earn him an Oscar, says 59% of our poll, though Matthew Libatique’s work on “Black Swan” could be an upset, says 28% (“Inception” and “The King’s Speech” each took 7% of the vote).

Who Should Win: A close race between between “True Grit”‘s Roger Deakins and “Black Swan”‘s Matthew Libatique, though Deakins took 46% of the vote to Libatique’s 36%.

Best Original Score
Who Will Win: It’s “The King’s Speech” vs. “The Social Network” again, though this time a narrow 43% say Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s score for “The Social Network” will top Alexandre Depslat’s work on “The King’s Speech,” which earned 39% of predictions. All three other nominees had support too, with “Inception” and “How To Train Your Dragon” finding 7% of the vote, and “127 Hours” 3%. An exciting race to watch.

Who Should Win: “The Social Network” apparently deserves it too, says 63% of our poll. Hans Zimmer’s score for “Inception” was the runner-up, taking 29% of the vote.

Check out all of the individual ballots below, which also include their picks for the Spirit Awards:

Dwight Brown
Matt Brunson
Christopher Campbell
Daryl Chin
Edward Copeland
Aaron Dobbs
Edward Douglas
Ed Gonzalez
Stephen Farber
Cynthia Fuchs
Brandon Harris
Eugene Hernandez
Robert Horton
Peter Howell
Peter Knegt
Eric Kohn
Gary Kramer
Eric Lavallee
Jonathan Poritsky
Katey Rich
Tim Robey
James Rocchi
Joshua Rothkopf
Nigel M. Smith
Anne Thompson
Scott Weinberg
Matthew Wilder
Christopher Wisniewski

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