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Oscars 2012 | Indiewire Poll: Who Will Win & Who Should Win

Oscars 2012 | Indiewire Poll: Who Will Win & Who Should Win

Indiewire polled its writers as well as a number of its Criticwire participants, asking for their picks regarding who will and who should win this year’s Academy Awards. In thirteen categories, insiders suggested who might take home an award at the ceremony at this Sunday night’s 84th ceremony, as well as their wishful thinking.

Indiewire‘s own picks in every category were published earlier this week.

In general, the 31 voters seemed to think things are looking rather predictable. Jean Dujardin, Viola Davis, Christopher Plummer and Octavia Spencer all seem like clear favorites for the acting trophies, while the “The Artist” seems to indeed have best picture in the bag.

Suspense was a bit more evident in a couple of the races though, namely best documentary feature – where voters suggested a tight race between “Undefeated,” “Paradise Lost 3,” “Hell and Back Again” and “Pina.”

As for who should win, things were a lot more spread out. “The Descendants,” “The Tree of Life,” “The Artist,” “Hugo,” and “Moneyball”  all had many best picture hopes, and while Viola Davis and Christopher Plummer managed to pull off both will and should honors from iW’s poll, Jessica Chastian and even-split between Brad Pitt and Gary Oldman were the top choices in the rest of the acting categories.

Check out all the results below, followed by links to each individual ballot.

Best Picture
Who Will Win: The Artist” expectedly ruled with 96% of the vote, with the remaining 4% going to a gutsy suggestion “The Help” could bring it down.

Who Should Win: It was much more spread out when it came to who folks thought deserved the big prize, with 30% saying “The Descendants”, 23% of the vote going to both “The Tree of Life,” and 13% going to “Hugo,” “Moneyball” and “The Artist,” respectively.

Best Director
Who Will Win: It’s Michel Hazanavicius for the win, with 79% calling for “The Artist” director to take this prize. Martin Scorese was a distant second with 14%.

Who Should Win: All five nominees got votes, with Terrence Malick leading the pack with 45% of the vote.  Scorsese got 28%, Alexander Payne got 14%, Hazanavicius got 10%, and Woody Allen got 3%.

Best Actress
Who Will Win: “The Help” star Viola Davis is the strong favorite here, taking 82% of the predictions. Meryl Steep is her closest and only competitor with 18%.

Who Should Win: Viola Davis was the favorite among those polled as well,  taking 39% of an incredibly spread out range of votes. All five nominees had  support, with Rooney Mara taking 25%, Meryl Streep taking 18%, Michelle Williams taking 14% and Glenn Close taking 7%.

Best Actor
Who Will Win: Not as much of a horse race as many have suggested, with Jean Dujardin the clear favorite here, taking 71% of the votes. George Clooney was second with 25%.

Who Should Win: Brad Pitt and Gary Oldman might not likely end up with Oscars, but voters thought they should — equally, as each took 30% of the vote. Clooney, Dujardin and Demian Bichir all found support as well, with 13% each.

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: A whoppiong 81% said Octavia Spencer, with Berenice Bejo, Melissa McCarthy and Jessica Chastain each taking a vote or two as well.

Who Should Win: Probably the most spread out of all the “who should” acting votes, with Jessica Chastain narrowly beating her “Help” co-star Spencer 26% to 23%. Melissa McCarthy and Berenice Bejo each got 19% of the votes, while Janet McTeer took 13%.

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Though one voter suggested Kenneth Branagh would shock come Oscar night, everyone else lent their votes to Christopher Plummer.

Who Should Win: Fifty-two percent thought Christopher Plummer deserved it, with Jonah Hill  (34%), Nick Nolte (10%) and Max von Sydow (10%) all getting support as well.

Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: “Midnight in Paris” is looking pretty good here, taking 79% of the votes over “The Artist,” which took 18% as a potential spoiler.

Who Should Win: Not so much “Midnight in Paris,” as that film took 14% as its Iranian import “A Separation” saw 62% of voters vouch for it to win. All of the other other nominees each got a couple votes as well.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: Eighty-two percent called this for “The Descendants,” while “Moneyball” and “Hugo” each got 7% of the vote.

Who Should Win: “Moneyball” found 40% of the support here, though “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” (23%), “The Descendants” (23% and “Hugo” (10%) all got votes too.

Best Animated Film
Who Will Win: The only complete consensus: “Rango” took 100% of predictions.

Who Should Win: “Rango” took a less overwhelming 59% here, with many opting for European imports “Chico & Rita” (19%) and “A Cat in Paris” (11%).

Best Foreign Language Film
Who Will Win: Iran’s “A Separation” (81%) the favorite over Poland’s “In Darkness” (15%)

Who Should Win: Most people will be happy if “A Separation” pulls it off, taking 71% of the vote. All of the other films each took a couple votes.

Best Documentary Feature
Who Will Win: The tightest of all the races here, with “Undefeated the favorite at 42% of predictions. Close behind, though, was “Paradise Lost 3” (23%), “Hell and Back Again” (19%) and “Pina” (15%).

Who Should Win: “Hell and Back Again” (42%) narrowly beat “Pina” (38%) while the other each took a vote or two.

Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki’s work on “The Tree of Life” looks to finally earn him an Oscar, says 63% of our poll, though “The Artist” (21%) or “Hugo” (17%) could upset.

Who Should Win: Lubezki is the favorite here too, taking 74% of the vote for “The Tree of Life” over a couple votes each for “The Artist,” “Hugo” and “War Horse”

Best Original Score
Who Will Win: Not much of a race here, with 87% saying this is “The Artist” composer Ludovic Bource’s to lose. Howard Shore’s “Hugo” score was a distant second.

Who Should Win: “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” (and its score by Alberto Iglesias) snuck past “The Artist” here 35%-31%. All of the nominees got at least votes, notably.

Check out all of the individual ballots below, which also include picks for the Spirit Awards:
Jason Apuzzo
Dwight Brown
Matt Brunson
Daryl Chin
Edward Copeland
Dennis Cozzalio
Mike D’Angelo
Jim Emerson
Stephen Farber
Cynthia Fuchs
Patrick Gamble
Ed Gonzalez
Steve Greene
Melissa Hanson
Eugene Hernandez
Peter Knegt
Robert Koehler
Eric Kohn
Dan Kois
Gary Kramer
Manolis Kranakis
Guy Lodge
Leonard Maltin
Matt Mueller
Govindini Murty
Micha Oleszczyk
Jordan Raup
Bryce Renninger
Rania Richardson
Nigel M. Smith
Matthew Wilder

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