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Spirit Awards 2012 | Indiewire Poll: Who Will Win & Who Should Win

Spirit Awards 2012 | Indiewire Poll: Who Will Win & Who Should Win

Indiewire conducted a poll of its writers as well over 25 of its Criticwire participants, asking two simple questions about this year’s Film Independent Spirit Awards: Who will win, and who should win? In thirteen categories, insiders suggested who might take home an award at the ceremony this Saturday afternoon in Santa Monica, California.

If they’re correct, look for a very spread out afternoon. “The Artist,” “The Descendants,” “Beginners,” “Take Shelter,” “Martha Marcy May Marlene,” “Margin Call,” “Pariah,” “A Separation” and “The Interrupters” are among the films being predicted for wins.

As for who should win, things were generally quite divisive. “The Artist” – predicted as the winner of best feature – was not championed by the majority of those polled in any category, with “Drive,” “Take Shelter,” “Martha Marcy May Marlene” and “Beginners” proving more popular choices.

Check out all the results below, followed by links to each individual ballot.

Best Feature
Who Will Win: Exactly fifty percent of those polled agree that this is The Artist‘s award to lose. But 37% said “The Descendants,” suggesting this is much less of a closed deal than it is at the Oscars/

Who Should Win: “Drive” and Take Shelter tied here, each taking 25% of the vote, though it was a very spread out field: “The Descendants” had 21%; “Beginners” had 17% and “The Artist” had 14%. Only “50/50” failed to get any support”

Best Director
Who Will Win: While “The Artist” was predicted for best feature, its director Michel Hazanavicius was only predicted to win best director by 27% of those polled. Forty-two percent instead said Alexander Payne was en route to his third win in this category (a record) for “The Descendants.”

Who Should Win: All five directors got support here, though “Drive” director Nicolas Winding Refn topped them all with 38% of the vote. Behind him was Alexander Payne (21%), Jeff Nichols (21%), Mike Mills (13%) and Michel Hazanavicius (8%).

Best Female Lead
Who Will Win: A bit of a showdown, with “Martha Marcy May Marlene” actress Elizabeth Olsen narrowly topping “My Week With Marilyn” star Michelle Williams by a 54% to 46% margin.

Who Should Win: Elizabeth Olsen is again the choice with 45% of the vote, but its a lot more spread out this time: Williams was second with 26%, Adepero Oduye took 22% and Rachael Harris found 4%. Sorry Lauren Ambrose.

Best Male Lead
Who Will Win: Another tight race, this time with three horses: Thirty-nine percent said “Take Shelter” actor Michael Shannon would win, topping Jean Dujardin (30%) and Ryan Gosling (21%).

Who Should Win: Michael Shannon found 50% of the support, but Dujardin (17%), Demian Bichir (17%), Ryan Gosling (13%) and Woody Harrellson (4%) all found support as well.

Best Supporting Female
Who Will Win: 2011 breakout Jessica Chastain has 64% of those polled saying she’ll win this award for “Take Shelter,” topping Shailene Woodley (27%) and Janet McTeer (9%). Technically, McTeer is only performance here also nominated for an Oscar, as Chastain was nominated there for not-so-indie-spirited “The Help.”

Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain was the voters’ hope as well, taking 42% over Woodley (22%), McTeer (14%), Harmony Santana (14%) and Anjelica Huston (9%).

Best Supporting Male
Who Will Win: In what our pollees suggest will be the only acting crossover with Oscar night, a whopping 74% say Christopher Plummer will win this, beating Oscar snubee Albert Brooks (who took the remaining 26%)

Who Should Win: Forty-two percent say Christopher Plummer also deserves it, though Brooks and John Hawkes (who won in this category this year) each took 25%.

Best Screenplay
Who Will Win: Voters say Alexander Payne will add yet another Spirit Award to his mantel here, for co-writing the screenplay for The Descendants.” The “Descendants” team took 76% of the vote, topping Mike Mills’ script for “Beginners” (which took 19% for second place).

Who Should Win: This time it was “Beginners” that was the top choice, with 33% saying it should win. All five nominees got votes though, with “Footnote” and “Win Win” each getting 19% of the support, and “The Artist” and “The Decendants” getting 14%.

Best First Feature
Who Will Win: Sean Durkin narrowly is the favorite for “Martha Marcy May Marlene,” topping J.C. Chandor’s “Margin Call” by 62%-38% margin.

Who Should Win: Its “Martha” vs. “Margin” again, with “Martha Marcy May Marlene” narrowly topping its fellow Sundance alum 36% to 32%. “Another Earth” and “In The Family” each got multiple votes as well.

John Cassavetes Award
Who Will Win: Dee Rees’ Pariah” is the overwhelming favorite in this category that celebrates low-budget filmmaking, with 81% saying it will win. “Bellflower” was the only other vote-getter.

Who Should Win: “Pariah” again, but by a less wider margin. 64% voted for Rees’ film, while “Bellflower” (37%) and “Circumstance” (19%) found support as well.

Best First Screenplay
Who Will Win: Sixty-seven percent say this is J.C. Chandor’s to lose for “Margin Call,” though 29% say “50/50” could upset.

Who Should Win: “Margin Call” is also the favorite here, taking 43% of the vote, though a surpising 26% went for Patrick DeWitt’s script for the little seen “Terri.”

Best Documentary
Who Will Win: They might have snubbed it at the Oscars, but 75% say “The Interrupters” is taking this one home, with the remaining saying “Bill Cunningham, New York” will upset.

Who Should Win: “The Interrupters” was also our poll’s favorite, taking 45% of the vote, while “Bill Cunningham” (30%) and “We Were Here” (25%) found considerable support as well.

Best Foreign Film
Who Will Win: The only category with 100% consensus: “A Separation” will win this award.

Who Should Win: “A Separation” winning would make our voters much happier, as 45% wished it well… “The Kid With The Bike” was second with 32% and “Melancholia” third with 18%.

Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: If “The Artist” is going to win any Spirit Award, its this one, with 72% predicting it over “Midnight in Paris”

Who Should Win: “Bellflower” topped the Oscar fave here, taking 50% of the vote over “The Artist” (30%) and “Midnight in Paris” (20%).

Check out all of the individual ballots below, which also include picks for the Oscars:
Jason Apuzzo
Dwight Brown
Matt Brunson
Daryl Chin
Edward Copeland
Dennis Cozzalio
Mike D’Angelo
Jim Emerson
Stephen Farber
Cynthia Fuchs
Patrick Gamble
Ed Gonzalez
Steve Greene
Melissa Hanson
Eugene Hernandez
Peter Knegt
Robert Koehler
Eric Kohn
Dan Kois
Gary Kramer
Manolis Kranakis
Guy Lodge
Leonard Maltin
Matt Mueller
Govindini Murty
Micha Oleszczyk
Jordan Raup
Bryce Renninger
Rania Richardson
Nigel M. Smith
Matthew Wilder


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