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Summer Indie Box Office Predictions

Summer Indie Box Office Predictions

As a supplement to this story up on Indiewire about 5 summer indie showdowns, I figured I’d show my inner box office geek and offer up a full-on list of predictions.

Looking only at films with platform releases (aka, not “Seeking a Friend For The End of the World,” even though its a specialty release), here’s a suggestion of what could become the summer’s top 20.

Maybe its a little optimistic. Last year only 6 indie releases grossed over $3 million by summer’s end. I’m guessing 11 this year. But then again, “Midnight in Paris” grossed over $50 million — and I’m not predicting that lightning to strike twice (and guessing Woody’s follow-up makes around $10 million).

The predicted top 20, rounding to the nearest $500K.

1. Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features, May 25): $21 million
2. The Intouchables (Weinstein Company, May 25): $12 million
3. To Rome With Love (Sony Classics, June 22): $10 million
4. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight, May 4): $9.5 million
5. Ruby Sparks (Fox Searchlight, July 27): $5 million
6. Celeste and Jesse Forever (Sony Classics, August 3): $4.5 million
7. Take This Waltz (Magnolia, June 29): $4 million
8. Hysteria (Sony Classics, June 18): $3.5 million
9. Lola Versus (Fox Searchlight, June 8): $3.5 million
10. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, June 29): $3 million
11. 2 Days in New York (Magnolia, August 10): $3 million
12. Searching For Sugar Man (Sony Classics, July 27): $2.5 million
13. Safety Not Guaranteed (FilmDistrict, June 8): $2.5 million
14. Bel Ami (Magnolia, June 8): $2 million
15. The Queen of Versailles (Magnolia, July 6): $1.5 million
16. Your Sister’s Sister (Sundance Selects, June 15): $1.5 million
17. Where Do We Go Now (Sony Classics, May 11): $1.5 million
18. Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (Sundance Selects, July 27): $1 million
19. Peace, Love and Misunderstanding (Sundance Selects, June 8): $1 million
20. First Position (Sundance Selects, May 4): $1 million


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