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2012 Emmy Predictions: The Comedy Categories

2012 Emmy Predictions: The Comedy Categories

The Emmy nominations are being announced this Thursday, July 19th and Indiewire is offering previews of what could go down in the three primary category subsections: comedy, drama and TV movie/miniseries (we already offered up a wishlist of “most wanted” nominees… read that here).

First up is comedy, where television had yet another very strong year. Veteran series — and Emmy favorites — like “30 Rock,” “Parks & Recreation,” “Modern Family” and “Curb Your Enthusiasm” all had reasonably strong seasons. “Louie” — which managed a best actor nomination last year but not one in the tip category — became arguably the most praised comedy series on the air, which could push into more extensive contention.

“Community,” which has never been nominated in major races, is coming off a big win at the Broadcast Critics’ new television-centered awards. Add that to more questionable Emmy regulars like “The Big Bang Theory,” and to a wonderful crop of  newbies  (“Veep,” “Girls,” “New Girl,” “Enlightened,” “Life’s Too Short” and “Up All Night”) and it should make for a pretty interesting Emmy race when it comes to comedy categories (though this is true of all the categories, really).

But getting one’s hopes up when it comes to the Emmy’s is historically a losing game. The awards have tended to reward the same shows over and over, particularly in the comedy categories (where — lest we forget — “Frasier” won the top prize five years in a row while “Roseanne” was never even nominated). That said, the last few years have shown signs of intelligent life in Emmy voters (Louis C.K.’s nomination last year, for example).  So perhaps there will be a few happy surprises Thursday morning, even if they might all be disqualified when Jon Cryer gets a best actor nomination for “Two and Half Men” over a few dozen more worthy possibilities.

A few things are definitely certain, whether warranted or not: “Modern Family” has won the top prize in the comedy category two years running, and last year every single adult cast member got a nomination (and two of them won). Expect a similar domination this year, which only already takes up 25% of the potential acting nominees.

One category “Modern Family” is not eligible for is lead comedy actress (all its cast members submit in supporting), which is a good thing because the race is already remarkably crowded.  While the category’s male counterpart is comparatively slim on contenders, the reality that television (comedic or dramatic, really) is the best medium for great roles for women is markedly clear if you scroll through the possibilites.

There’s last year’s six nominees — Amy Poehler (“Parks and Recreation”), Laura Linney (“The Big C”), Edie Falco (“Nurse Jackie”), Tina Fey (“30 Rock”), Martha Plimpton (“Raising Hope”) and the surprising winner, Melissa McCarthy (“Mike & Molly”). That group in itself is quite impressive (even if some of the shows the actresses are on are much more mediocre than their individual contributions).  But add them to the slew of actresses coming in from new series, and one starts to wish the Emmys would expand the nominee count.

There’s the exceptional trio from HBO — Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”), Lena Dunham (“Girls”) and Laura Dern (“Enlightened”) as well as a couple strong options from the networks in Christina Applegate (“Up All Night”) and Zooey Deschanel (“New Girl”). How these 11 women are narrowed down to six nominees is perhaps Thursday’s biggest nail-biter. Other than Amy Poehler, it seems reasonable to wager that everyone is vulnerable.

Shaky predictons in that category and the other major comedy races are on the next page. Check back for Indiewire’s take on the drama categories tomorrow.

Best Comedy Series: (bolded series/names are our predictions)

The Locks:
1. Modern Family
2. 30 Rock

3. Parks and Recreation
4. The Big Bang Theory

Very Possible:
5. Curb Your Enthusiasm
6. Louie

7. Community

The Strong Newbies?
8. Veep
9. New Girl
10. Girls
11. Up All Night
11. Enlightened
12. 2 Broke Girls
13. House of Lies

The Fallen Favorites?
14. Glee
15. The Office

Best Lead Actress – Comedy Series:

The Locks (really only one, given how beautifully crowded this category is):
1. Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

The Strong Newbies:
2. Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
3. Laura Dern, Enlightended

4. Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
5. Lena Dunham, Girls

The Returning Nominees?
6. Tina Fey, 30 Rock
7. Laura Linney, The Big C
8. Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
9. Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
10. Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope

The Possible Surprises:
11. Christina Applegate, Up All Night
12. Patricia Heaton, The Middle

Best Lead Actor – Comedy Series:

The Locks:
1. Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
2. Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
3. Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm

4. Louis C.K., Louie

The Strong Newbie:
5. Don Cheadle, House of Lies

The Returning Nominees?
6. Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
7. Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory

Possible Surprises:
7. Joel McHale, Community
9. Will Arnett, Up All Night
10. Warwick Davis, Life’s Too Short
11. Ed Helms, The Office
12. Adam Scott, Parks & Recreation

Best Supporting Actress – Comedy Series:

The Locks:
1. Julie Bowen, Modern Family
2. Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
3. Betty White, Hot in Cleveland

The Returning Nominees?
4. Kristin Wiig, Saturday Night Live
5. Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
6. Jane Lynch, Glee

The Strong Newbies:
7. Maya Rudolph, Up All Night
8. Diane Ladd, Enlightened

Possible Surprises:
10. Cloris Leachman, Raising Hope
11. Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives
12. Anna Chlumsky, Veep

Best Supporting Actor – Comedy Series

The “Modern Family” Locks:
1. Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
2. Ty Burrell, Modern Family

The “Modern Family” Near-Locks
3. Ed O’Neill, Modern Family
4. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family

The First Timers?
5. Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation
6. Max Greenfield, New Girl

The Fallen Favorites?
7. Chris Colfer, Glee
8. Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
9. Jeremy Piven, Entourage

The Possible Surprises:
11. Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
12. Damon Wayans, Jr., Happy Endings


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