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Oscars Poll: Who Will Win and Who Should Win According To 103 Critics and Bloggers

Oscars Poll: Who Will Win and Who Should Win According To 103 Critics and Bloggers

While we’ve already posted my personal predictions in each category, we also invited the critics listed in Indiewire’s Criticwire network to offer their picks as to who will and should win at Sunday’s Oscar ceremony in 14 categories. This year, over 100 of them participated.

Like most predictions, the results suggested “Argo” will be taking home the night’s biggest prize, but beyond that the results are pretty spread out: “Lincoln,” “Life of Pi,” “Django Unchained,” “Amour” and “Silver Linings Playbook” are all predicted to take home an Oscar or two below as well.

Check out all the results below. Links to individual ballots are forthcoming.

Best Picture
Who Will Win: Ben Affleck’s charging frontrunner “Argo” was by far the consensus here, with nearly 82% of the 103 critics and bloggers polled saying it will win the best picture Oscar. “Lincoln” was a distant second with 12% of the vote, while “Silver Linings” (3%), “Beasts of the Southern Wild” (1%) and “Django Unchained” (1%) were ticked off by a few brave folks.

Who Should Win: Making it clear what a divisive and interesting year 2012 was, the votes here were all over the place. “Argo” certainly wasn’t the critics choice — it took only 10% of the vote to place fifth after “Beasts” (11%), “Django” (12%), “Amour” (16%) and our polls choice as to who should win, “Zero Dark Thirty” (34%). Notably, the only film to not recieve any votes (and every other film managed at least 5), was “Les Miserables.”

Best Director
Who Will Win: Most Oscar prognosticators aren’t so sure about Steven Spielberg willing this seemingly frontrunner-less race, but our poll had 73% of critics feeling confident about his odds. Ang Lee was second with 14%, while Michael Haneke (6%), David O. Russell (4%) and Benh Zeitlin (3%).

Who Should Win: Michael Haneke for the win, at least in our pollsters’ dreams. The Austrian filmmaker took 30% of the vote, followed closely by Spielberg (28%). The votes were in general spread out nicely, with Lee (19%), Zeitlin (12%) and Russell (11%) all being at least 10 folks’ pick,

Best Actress
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, according to 52% of those polled. That’s not a hugely confident number compared to some other major races, with Emmanuelle Riva (29%) and Jessica Chastain (15%) both getting sizeable support as well.

Who Should Win: Lawrence polled third (22%) here, behind both Chastain (29%) and the critic pick, Emmanuelle Riva (48%). Quvenzhane Wallis and Naomi Watts each got a lone vote.

Best Actor
Who Will Win: In the strongest consensus of any category, Daniel Day-Lewis took 95% of the vote here, and those who picked him are almost certain to be right come Oscar night. Hugh Jackman and Joaquin Phoenix each received two ambitious voters’ support.

Who Should Win: Day-Lewis had strong support here (42%), but Joaquin Phoenix (51%) was the overall pick. Jackman, Bradley Cooper and Denzel Washington had just 7% of the vote between them.

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: With near Day-Lewis-level certainly, Anne Hathaway (92%) was the overwhelming choice, with some risk-takers giving hope to Sally Field (5%) and Amy Adams (3%).

Who Should Win: Hathaway and Adams faced off here, with Amy Adams narrowly being the critics choice with 35% over Hathaway’s 34%. Sally Field (13%) and Helen Hunt (18%) got some strong support as well.

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: The night’s biggest acting race toss up saw 41% of those polled picked Tommy Lee Jones for the win. But Robert DeNiro (25%) and Christoph Waltz (18%) weren’t far behind and even Phillip Seymour Hoffman (9%) and Alan Arkin (7%) had respectable amounts of predictors.

Who Should Win: It was less of a toss up in the fantasy scenario, with 56% saying Phillip Seymour Hoffman. Jones and Waltz were tied for second with 17% each.

Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Along with animated feature, this was the tightest of the polls, with Quentin Tarantino’s “Django Unchained” script (37%) narrowly topping Mark Boal’s for “Zero Dark Thirty” (30%) and Michael Haneke’s for “Amour” (28%).

Who Should Win: Just as close, but with a different arrangement: Boal and “Zero Dark Thirty” won with 35% of the vote, followed by Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola for “Moonrise Kingdom” (28%) and Tarantino for “Django” (23%). Despite being the top “who should” pick for best director, Haneke was fourth with 13% of the vote here.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: Chris Terrio win ride the “Argo” wave to a win here, says 60% of those polled. Tony Kushner is next, with his “Lincoln” script getting 30% of the vote. David O. Russell — a definite possibility here — surprisingly got just 6%.

Who Should Win: Tony Kushner was by far the pick here, as “Lincoln” took 47% of the vote. Russell and Terrio took 17% and 16%, respectively, while Benh Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar managed 13% for “Beasts of the Southern Wild.”

Best Animated Film
Who Will Win: A very close call, with “Brave” (38%) topping “Wreck-It-Ralph” (37%) by just one vote. “Frankenweenie” has a respectable 19% of the vote as well.

Who Should Win: A much different srory, with “ParaNorman” taking a 34% lead over “Frankenweenie” (26%) and “Wreck-It-Ralph” (24%).

Best Foreign Language Film
Who Will Win and Who Should Win:  If there’s one thing you be sure of, according to our pollsters, its “Amour” winning this. 96% said so, and another 80% said it should. While only 2% said “No” would win, a respectable 13% said it should.

Best Documentary Feature
Who Will Win: 74% say “Searching For Sugar Man.” “How To Survive a Plague” was pegged at the most possible upset with 12% of the vote.

Who Should Win: “How To Survive a Plague” won a very close poll with 34% of the vote. “Sugar Man” (26%), “The Invisible War” (17%), “The Gatekeepers” (14%) and “5 Broken Cameras” (10%) all got sizeable vote counts as well.

Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: “Life of Pi” wins here, with cinematographer Claudio Miranda winning 69% of our voters predictions. Roger Deakins had 15% for “Skyfall” and Janusz Kaminski had 11% for “Lincoln.”

Who Should Win: Our poll suggests Roger Deakins should finally win an Oscar for “Skyfall,” with 54% saying so. “Life of Pi” had 23% of the support, while “Lincoln,” “Anna Karenina” and “Django Unchained” each had 7%-9%.

Best Original Score
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: In only one or two races where the woulds and the shoulds lined up, it was “Life of Pi” again, this time for composer Mychael Danna (46% for would, 31% for should). Alexandre Desplat (“Argo,” 24% for would, 27% for should), John Williams (“Lincoln,” 19% for would, 13% for should), Thomas Newman (“Skyfall,” 8% for would, 24% should) also did well on both fronts.

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