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Predicting The Winners Of The 2013 BAFTAs

Predicting The Winners Of The 2013 BAFTAs

We’re two weeks out from the Academy Awards, but this weekend brings the last of the major precursor ceremonies (excluding the WGAs) before Oscars — the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards, or the BAFTAs. Historically leaning more towards celebrating homegrown fare than following the award season narratives, things have changed in the last few years with BAFTA moving the ceremony before the Oscars, and with a significant proportion of AMPAS members being British, it can be a good indicator of how things will go with the Academy.

This year, the nominees quite often match up fairly closely with the Oscars, but there’s enough difference in both those nominated and in the voting patterns that it’s no guarantee this is how it will play out at the Dolby Theater. So with the ceremony only 48 hours away, we’ve taken a stab at saying who will (and who should) win BAFTAs in each category. Check our picks out below, make your own in the comments section, and check back here on Sunday afternoon to find out the victors.

Rising Star Award
Elizabeth Olsen
Andrea Riseborough
Suraj Sharma
Juno Temple
Alicia Vikander

Should Win: As ever, it’s a slightly odd mix, with people at very different stages of their careers. I like everyone nominated, it should be said, but our vote was for Alicia Vikander, who was the luminous highlight of “Anna Karenina.”
Will Win: A tricky to one to call; unlike previous years, there’s no major names here, and no one to court the ‘youth’ vote, as it were, that won Noel Clarke and Adam Deacon the prize in the past. I think Suraj Sharma‘s probably got the best chance, if only because his film was the most successful, but Juno Temple or Andrea Riseborough are the best bets.

Short Film
“The Curse”
“Good Night”
“The Voorman Project”

Short Animation
“Here To Fall”
“I’m Fine Thanks”
“The Making Of Longbird”

Should Win: Confessions — I’ve been so busy chasing up the Oscar shorts that I haven’t had time to watch the BAFTA ones, bar Lynne Ramsay‘s Olympics-themed “Swimmer.” But it was very good, so let’s go for that.

Outstanding British Debut
Bart Layton, Dimitri Doganis – “The Imposter”
David Morris, Jacqui Morris – “McCullin”
Dexter Fletcher, Danny King – “Wild Bill”
James Bobin – “The Muppets”
Tina Gharavi – “I Am Nasrine”

Should Win: Having not seen “I Am Nasrine,” I’d lean towards either Dexter Fletcher and Danny King, whose “Wild Bill” was very much underseen, or David and Jacqui Morris, whose “McCullin” is one of the best documentaries I’ve seen in a long while.
Will Win: “The Imposter” boys are probably in with the best chance, though James Bobin could come through too.

Film Not In The English Language
“The Hunt”
“Rust & Bone”
“The Intouchables”

Should Win: “The Hunt“! A million times “The Hunt.” Thomas Vinterberg‘s film hasn’t been included in the awards race much thus far, seeing as it’s not due for U.S. release until the summer, but it was one of the very best films of 2012 and more than deserves recognition here.
Will Win: Given a Best Director nomination for Michael Haneke, “Amour” seems like the smart bet here. “Rust & Bone” is the potential spoiler.

Original Music
Dario Marianelli – “Anna Karenina”
Alexandre Desplat – “Argo”
Mychael Danna – “Life of Pi”
John Williams – “Lincoln”
Thomas Newman – “Skyfall”

Should Win: Mychael Danna‘s “Life of Pi” score is gorgeous, but I’m fonder of Dario Marianelli‘s work on “Anna Karenina.”
Will Win: A very tough category, actually — almost anything could take it. Probably down to Marianelli, Danna and Thomas Newman‘s “Skyfall” score, and I reckon the latter will come out on top.

Seamus McGarvey – “Anna Karenina”
Danny Cohen – “Les Miserables”
Claudio Miranda – “Life of Pi”
Janusz Kaminski – “Lincoln”
Roger Deakins – “Skyfall”

Should Win: Roger Deakins is undoubtedly deserving, but Seamus McGarvey‘s never won a BAFTA, so I’d probably vote for his stunning work on “Anna Karenina.”
Will Win: While he’s famously never won an Oscar, Deakins has three BAFTAs (the most recent for “True Grit” only two years ago), so the sense of him being overdue isn’t quite the same. Of course, it does mean that he’s a proven favorite with BAFTA voters, but we’d still lean towards Claudio Miranda here.

William Goldenberg – “Argo”
Fred Raskin – “Django Unchained”
Tim Squyres – “Life of Pi”
Stuart Baird -“Skyfall”
Dylan Tichenor, William Goldenberg – “Zero Dark Thirty”

Should Win: I don’t mind which film it goes too, so long as William Goldenberg gets a prize — the work on “Argo” and “Zero Dark Thirty” is about as good as film editing gets. Let’s go with the latter, just so he can share the love with Dylan Tichenor.
Will Win: BAFTA love “Argo,” but they also love “Life of Pi, “so either could take it, but I’m betting on a win for the showier transitions of the latter.

Production Design
Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer – “Anna Karenina”
Eve Stewart, Anna Lynch-Robinson – “Les Miserables”
David Gropman, Anna Pinnock – “Life of Pi”
Rick Carter, Jim Erickson – “Lincoln”
Dennis Gassner, Anna Pinnock – “Skyfall”

Should Win: “Anna Karenina,” hands down.
Will Win: Proabably “Anna Karenina,” though don’t count out “Skyfall” or “Les Miserables” either.

Costume Design
Jacqueline Durran – “Anna Karenina”
Beatrix Aruna Pasztor – “Great Expectations”
Paco Delgado – “Les Miserables”
Joanna Johnston – “Lincoln”
Colleen Atwood – “Snow White and the Huntsman”

Should Win: Oh, look, “Great Expectations“! That was a film! Anyway, this should probably be “Anna Karenina,” though Atwood’s work on ‘Snow White’ was impressive too.
Will Win: “Anna Karenina,” easy.

Make Up & Hair
Ivana Primorac – “Anna Karenina”
Julie Hewett, Martin Samuel, Howard Berger – “Hitchcock”
Peter Swords King, Richard Taylor, Rink Findlater – “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Lisa Westcott – “Les Miserables”
Lois Burwell, Kay Georgiou – “Lincoln”

Should Win: Anything but “Hitchcock.” Probably “The Hobbit,” if only because it had the showier prosthesis.
Will Win: Probably “The Hobbit,” though “Anna Karenina” could conceivably pick up a third here too.

“Django Unchained”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Miserables”
“Life of Pi”

Should Win: A curiously uninvolving list of nominees here, but “Life of Pi” would probably get my vote.
Will Win: The wham-bang factor of “Skyfall” is the showiest, but the difficulties of recording live vocals on set may see “Les Miserables” get the edge.

Special Visual Effects
“The Dark Knight Rises”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi”
“Marvel Avengers Assemble”

Should Win: I’m sure I’m not alone in thinking that Richard Parker in “Life of Pi’ is pretty much the best visual effect I’ve ever seen, so that would be my pick, as impressive as the work in “The Avengers” is too.
Will Win: Life of Pi” makes the most sense, but “The Hobbit” is a potential surprise.

Adapted Screenplay
Chris Terrio – “Argo”
Benh Zeitlin & Lucy Alibar – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
David Magee – “Life of Pi”
Tony Kushner – “Lincoln”
David O Russell – “Silver Linings Playbook”

Should Win: A tough category here, but I happen to think that “Argo” has the edge, just as a textbook example of turning a true-life event into a gripping thriller. But nothing here would upset me.
Will Win: So tough to call, but BAFTA seemed to like “Argo” more than “Lincoln” or “Silver Linings Playbook,” the main competition in this category, so my money’s on that.

Original Screenplay
Michael Haneke – “Amour”
Quentin Tarantino – “Django Unchained”
Paul Thomas Anderson – “The Master”
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola – “Moonrise Kingdom”
Mark Boal – “Zero Dark Thirty”

Should Win: Personally, I’d love to see Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola recognized, though it’s unlikely to happen.
Will Win: The category’s made more interesting by the addition of PTA, who missed out an Oscar nod. But it’s really between Mark Boal and Quentin Tarantino, as it was in 2010. This time, I think Tarantino will win out.

Animated Film

Should Win: I’m one of the few who would say this, but I liked “Brave” a lot, and would like to see it take the prize.
Will Win: “Frankenweenie” and “ParaNorman” have dominated the precursors, but with the former having shot in the U.K. and Burton’s long ties here, that would seem to be the smart bet.

“The Imposter”
“Searching For Sugar Man”
“West of Memphis”

Should Win: A tough category (arguably stronger than the Oscars). I liked, as I said above, “McCullen” better than the other options here.
Will Win: “The Imposter” is the front-runner, though “Marley” stands a strong chance too.

Michael Haneke – “Amour”
Ben Affleck – “Argo”
Quentin Tarantino – “Django Unchained”
Ang Lee – “Life of Pi”
Kathryn Bigelow – “Zero Dark Thirty”

Should Win: There’s a mighty collection of directorial achievements here, but I’d lean towards Kathryn Bigelow, who deserves every award she got from “The Hurt Locker” and more for her Bin Laden flick.
Will Win: Given the direction of the season, few would bet against Ben Affleck here, but Ang Lee‘s also a strong possibility.

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – “The Master”
Judi Dench – “Skyfall”
Sally Field – “Lincoln”
Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”
Anne Hathaway – “Les Miserables”

Should Win: Having been the bridesmaid quite a few times, I’d love to see Amy Adams finally get a trophy for her best-ever turn in Paul Thomas Anderson‘s film.
Will Win: Anne Hathaway, but the inevitability of it shouldn’t take away from how brilliant she is in her showcase number.

Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin – “Argo”
Christoph Waltz – “Django Unchained”
Javier Bardem – “Skyfall”
Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”

Should Win: There are no bad performances here, but Philip Seymour Hoffman is the only one who gives a performance that isn’t a variation on what he’s done before, so he’s my choice by a mile.
Will Win: Despite him having missed out on an Oscar nomination, my gut says Javier Bardem here.

Leading Actor
Ben Affleck – “Argo”
Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
Joaquin Phoenix – “The Master”

Should Win: Some titanic performances here to be sure. Joaquin Phoenix does stand head and tails above all but Daniel Day-Lewis, and probably still edges him out.
Will Win: Though “Lincoln” doesn’t hold the same historical appeal to U.K. audiences, Day-Lewis is still close to British hearts, so he’ll certainly continue his winning streak here.

Leading Actress
Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
Marion Cotillard – “Rust & Bone”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Helen Mirren – “Hitchcock”
Emmanuelle Riva – “Amour”

Should Win: Jessica Chastain. It’s the kind of subtle, full-on-brilliant character turn that so often misses out on awards recognition, and its brilliance will be talked about for years to come.
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, probably, with Emmanuelle Riva and Chastain still possibilities.

British Film
“Anna Karenina”
“Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
“Les Miserables”
“Seven Psychopaths”

Should Win:Anna Karenina” — not just my favorite British film of last year, but my favorite film full stop. Misunderstood by many at the time, it’s going to be reappraised a lot over the years.
Will Win: Given it came in the 50th anniversary of the Bond franchise, and became the all-time top grosser in the U.K., I can’t see how this could be anything but “Skyfall.”

Best Film
“Les Miserables”
“Life of Pi”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Should Win: If the thoughts above didn’t give it away, “Zero Dark Thirty” is certainly the best film here, and deserves the prize.
Will Win: “Argo” is probably the safer bet, but my heart says that “Life of Pi” will end up winning out. Watch me be wrong on Sunday.

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