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Oscars Poll: Who Will Win and Who Should Win According To Over 60 Critics and Bloggers

Oscars Poll: Who Will Win and Who Should Win According To Over 60 Critics and Bloggers

While we’ve already posted my personal predictions in each category, we also invited the critics listed in Indiewire’s Criticwire network to offer their picks as to who will and should win at Sunday’s Oscar ceremony in 15 categories. This year, over 60 of them participated.

Check out all the results below.

Best Picture
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Many are calling this year’s best picture race the closest call in a long time, but Steve McQueen’s “12 Years a Slave” got a comfortable majority of “who will” picks here, taking 65% of them. The film’s main competitiors — “Gravity” and “American Hustle” — had 21% and 14% saying they’d win, respectively. “12 Years” was also the top choice on the “should win” ballot, with 37% saying it deserves the big prize. Spike Jonze’s “Her” was next with 26%, while “Gravity” (11%), “The Wolf of Wall Street” (8%), “American Hustle” (8%) and Nebraska (8%) all had supporters as well.

Best Director
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: “Gravity” director Alfonso Cuarón took 75% of the “will win” vote here, and a somewhat less commanding 47% of the “should win” vote. In second place in both regards was Steve McQueen, who 18% of those polled said would win and another 30% said should. In the should win poll, Martin Scorsese (10%), David O. Russell (8%) and Alexander Payne (6%) all got a few votes as well.

Best Actress
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Yet another consensus over who will and should win, with Cate Blanchett getting a massive 95% of the “will” vote and another 57% of the “should.” Amy Adams (22%), Sandra Bullock (16%) and Judi Dench (6%) all had fans in the latter vote as well, but poor Meryl Streep was the only one to receive no votes.

Best Actor
Who Will Win:  While 15% said Chiwetel Ejiofor would win here, predictions were clearly in favor of Matthew McConaughey, who took 80% for his performance in “Dallas Buyers Club”

Who Should Win: Only 17% said McConaughey deserves it if he wins, with Chiwetel Ejiofor (38%) and Leonardo DiCaprio (32%) finding a lot more fans in our poll.

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: It looks like another win for “12 Years a Slave,” with Lupita Nyong’o taking 62% of predictions. But Jennifer Lawrence wasn’t far behind with 30%. It was the same order of things in the preferred winner column, with Nyong’o taking 48% of the vote and Lawrence 21%. Sally Hawkins (15%), June Squibb (11%) and Julia Roberts (5%) all had admirers too.

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win:  It seems like Jared Leto has this in the bag: 88% of voters said he’d win. Michael Fassbender and Jonah Hill were next with 5% each.

Who Should Win: The male acting races were clearly a lot more divisive than the female races, with Michael Fassbender the clear favorite for “who should,” taking 37%. Jonah Hill was next with 17%, while Jared Leto and Barkhad Abdi each took 16%.

Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: It was a relatively close call, but David O. Russell and Eric Singer’s script for “American Hustle” got more predictions than “Her,” taking 51% to its 38%.

Who Should Win: Things flipped here, with Spike Jonze’s “Her” script winning 78% of the support to “Hustle”‘s 8%. “Nebraska” (7%) and “Blue Jasmine” (6%) also had fans.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: John Ridley will ride the “12 Years a Slave” wave to a win here, says 72% of those polled. “Philomena” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” tied for next in line, each nabbing 11% of predictions, respectively.

Who Should Win: In a perfect world, 47% of voters hoped Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater would make it to the stage for “Before Midnight.” “12 Years a Slave” (23%) and “Wolf of Wall Street” (18%) were next.

Best Animated Film
Who Will Win: Another overwhelming majority pick with 88% saying “Frozen” will easily take this.

Who Should Win: “Frozen” only got 23% of the vote here, with “The Wind Rises” the winner of choice for 48% of the poll. “Ernest & Celestine” also had fans, taking 18%.

Best Foreign Language Film
Who Will Win and Who Should Win:  Italy’s “The Great Beauty” led both polls by a healthy margin, with 74% saying it will win and another 47% saying it should. Belgium’s “Broken Circle Breakdown” had 13% of the “will” vote as a potential spoiler, while Denmark’s “The Hunt” was second for the “should” with 25%.

Best Documentary Feature
Who Will Win: Getting the biggest split of any race we asked pollsters, “Twenty Feet From Stardom” narrowly was the predicted winner for best documentary, taking 45% of the vote over “The Act of Killing” (35%) and “The Square” (15%).

Who Should Win: It was not as close a call here, with 66% saying “The Act of Killing” should win, with “The Square” (11%), “Twenty Feet” (11%), “Cutie and the Boxer” (9%) and “Dirty Wars” (4%) splitting the rest of the vote.

Best Cinematography
Who Will Win and Who Should Win:  It seems like a very safe bet to suggest Emmanuel Lubezki will finally win an Oscar for his work on “Gravity,” with a hopping 99% saying he’d win. He also topped the should win poll, with 48% of the vote over “Inside Llewyn Davis” (21%) and “Prisoners” (12%).

Best Original Score
Who Will Win: Another win for “Gravity,” with 78% saying Steven Price would take home this Oscar for the film’s score. Alexandre Desplat’s score for “Philomena” (17%) was the possible spoiler.

Who Should Win: “Gravity” got a lot of votes here too (32%), but not as much as Owen Pallett and William Butler’s “Her” score, with had 58% of the poll saying it should win.

Best Original Song
Who Will Win: 81% said this was would be a win for “Let It Go” from “Frozen,” with U2’s “Ordinary Love” (from “Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom”) next in line with 12%.

Who Should Win: If the poll had its way (or at least 45% of it), Karen O and Spike Jonze would win an Oscar for their “The Moon Song,” though “Let It Go” had a sizeable 39% of the vote as well.

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