After swings and misses such as “Mr. Peabody And Sherman” and “Turbo”, Dreamworks is back in the batter’s box with the stars lining up nicely for “How To Train Your Dragon 2”. So far it’s been a banner year for family titles and I see no reason why the Katzenberg Kids can’t continue that trend. Earlier in the week the company announced it would also play on Imax screens (generally it’s matinees over “Edge Of Tomorrow”) so that will help as well. Look for an opening north of $70 million.
Much like George and Weezie who moved on up to the East Side, Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum move across the street and up to what appears to be the higher rent district in “22 Jump Street”. The original opened to $36 million in 2012 but the new address should easily burst through that opening number and into the $50 mil’s or even the 60’s,higher than my Monday projection of $45 million.
Look for a precipitous drop, especially on Friday night, from “The Fault In Our Stars”. The film’s declines should level off as the weeks progress but these types of YA films generally take a drop around 50-55% (“Divergent” fell 53% off an opening weekend of $54 million back in March) and I think “Fault” will be on the higher end of that range thanks to an enormous Thursday/Friday opening day number, but will settle in for a long run starting next week. “Maleficent” will suffer a higher drop than last week, with “Dragon” taking away much of its audience this week.
PROJECTED WEEKEND BOX OFFICE TOP 10
1) HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2—DK/FOX—$71 MILLION
2) 22 JUMP STREET—SONY—$56 MILLION
3) THE FAULT IN OUR STARS—FOX—$20.6 MILLION—57% DROP
4) MALEFICENT—DISNEY—$16.1 MILLION—53% DROP
5) EDGE OF TOMORROW—WARNERS—$13.2 MILLION—54% DROP
6) X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST—FOX—$6.6 MILLION—56% DROP
7) GODZILLA—WARNERS—$2.7 MILLION—55% DROP
8) A MILLION WAYS TO DIE IN THE WEST—UNIVERSAL—$2.5 MILLION—65% DROP
9) NEIGHBORS—UNIVERSAL—$2.4 MILLION—54% DROP
10) CHEF—OPEN ROAD—$1.8 MILLION—30% DROP