There’s a good chance that, for the first time this summer, we won’t have a new opener crack the top two at the box office. Although “Expendables”, “Let’s Be Cops” and “The Giver” are on pace to open to three day numbers in the high teens or low 20’s, it might not be enough to unseat Mikey, Donnie, Rocket Raccoon, and a talking tree.
Sylvester Stallone and his band of merry Metamucil Men are back for installment three of “The Expendables” franchise. This time, though, on line buzz is a bit soft and the now-famous piracy leak could prove disastrous for the picture ( a reported 5 million people have watched at least part of the movie illegally online). What looked to be a high octane opening of $30 mil a few weeks back has blown a gasket and should barely limp north of $20 million. “Let’s Be Cops” opened well last night ($5+ million) but a Wednesday opening always leads (for obvious reasons) to a lower than normal three day weekend. Weinstein’s “The Giver” has the young girls but it remains to be seen if they can pull in another quadrant prior to opening.
PROJECTED WEEKEND TOP 10
1) TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES—PARAMOUNT—$28.8 MILLION—DOWN 56%
Midweek #’s have been roughly 60% of what “Guardians” were in its first week midweeks and 60% of GOTG’s 2nd weekend comes to $25 million. I’m adjusting it northward as TMNT’s 2nd weekend is facing less competition. I hope that math didn’t thoroughly confuse you.
2) GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY—BV/MARVEL—$23.10 MILLION—DOWN 45%
Midweek numbers are still solid and the soundtrack has just reached #1 on ITunes. Somewhere in Stockholm, the members of Blue Swede are wondering “WTF?”.
3) THE EXPENDABLES 3—LIONSGATE—$23.01 MILLION
Chapter 2 opened to $28 million. Figure a few million less due to the aforementioned piracy concerns and a couple more for a lack of social media buzz
4) LET’S BE COPS—FOX—$23.00 MILLION
Positive on-line word-of-mouth from yesterday’s opening night could spur another August surprise and plop this raunch/com just above Sly & Co (and maybe, just maybe, ahead of “Guardians”). It’ll be close.
5) THE GIVER—WEINSTEIN—$17.5 MILLION
Girls gonna go gaga for “Giver”.
6) THE HUNDRED-FOOT-JOURNEY—BUENA VISTA—$7.8 MILLION—DOWN 29%
Such a smart release date by BV. The film’s midweeks are strong, as is word-of-mouth (A Cinemascore), and the film should play through the month and into early September. Rajma for everyone!!!
7) INTO THE STORM—WARNER BROTHERS—$7.2 MILLION—DOWN 58%
No matter what the drop, the film will still be the highest grossing picture in history that stars someone named Richard Armitage.
8) LUCY—UNIVERSAL—$5.1 MILLION—DOWN 46%
Lucy’s got no ‘splaining to do. She just hit $100 million and will add to that this weekend. So there.
9) HERCULES—PARAMOUNT—$3.0 MILLION—DOWN 47%
Scoff if you will (and I did) but Dwayne Johnson is on his way to $70 million this weekend (almost four times what Kellan Lutz’s “Hercules” grossed this past January) and another $80 million by the end of the weekend overseas.
10) STEP UP: ALL IN—LIONSGATE—$2.8 MILLION—DOWN 56%
A big Step Down