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Oscars Poll: Who Will Win and Who Should Win According To Over 50 Critics and Bloggers

Oscars Poll: Who Will Win and Who Should Win According To Over 50 Critics and Bloggers

While we’ve already posted our own predictions in each category, we also invited the critics listed in Indiewire’s Criticwire network to offer their picks as to who will and should win at Sunday’s Oscar ceremony in 15 categories. This year, over 50 of them participated.

Check out all the results below.

Best Picture
Who Will Win: Many are calling this year’s best picture race the closest call in a long time, though “Birdman” got a majority of “who will” picks here, taking 63% of them. Its closest competition was “Boyhood” with 31%, while “American Sniper” (4%) and “The Theory of Everything” (2%) got a collective handful of outside-the-boxers.

Who Should Win: “Birdman” fell to third place here, with only 16% saying it would deserve the win most are predicting. Folks would be much happier with “The Grand Budapest Hotel” (27%) or “Boyhood,” which won the most votes at 31%. Every film save “The Theory of Everything” got some votes as well: “Selma” (14%), “Whiplash” (9%), “American Sniper” (2%) and “The Imitation Game” (2%).

Best Director
Who Will Win: A much closer call than Best Picture, with “Birdman” helmer Alejandro González Iñárritu narrowly beating out “Boyhood”‘s Richard Linklater 54% to 46%.

Who Should Win: Everyone but poor Morten Tyldum had support here, but Richard Linklater was the clear winner with 54%. Iñárritu followed with 25%, while Wes Anderson (17%) and Bennett Miller (4%) had some support as well.

Best Actress
Who Will Win: Though a sole voter is (wrongly) predicting a Rosamund Pike upset, a whopping 98% are saying Julianne Moore will indeed win her first Oscar for “Still Alice.”

Who Should Win: Julianne Moore only managed 26% of the “who should” voters, however, while 39% said Marion Cotillard should win her second golden boy for “Two Days, One Night.” Reese Witherspoon and Rosamund Pike had their fair share of fans too, with 20% going for former and 15% picking the latter.

Best Actor
Who Will Win:  Definitely the tightest of the acting races (though that isn’t saying much — the other three are not tight at all), 67% said Eddie Redmayne will win for “The Theory of Everything,” while 29% said Michael Keaton. A Bradley Cooper upset (which is quite possible) was predicted by 4% of those polled.

Who Should Win: Everybody got over 7% of the “should win” votes here, though Michael Keaton still won a slight majority with 52%. Following him, in descending order, were Bradley Cooper (17%), Eddie Redmayne (15%), Steve Carell (9%) and Benedict Cumberbatch (7%). 

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win
and Who Should Win: The only 100% consensus pick to win an Oscar on this poll? Patricia Arquette for “Boyhood.” A hefty 69% said she should win too, with Emma Stone (17%) and Laura Dern (10%) getting some votes as well.

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: All signs point to J.K. Simmons having this in the bag, and 96% of the poll agreed. Mark Ruffalo and Ethan Hawke each got one vote from two daring prognosticators. A majority 59% said they’d be happy with Simmons’ likely win, while Hawke (23%), Ruffalo (7%) and Edward Norton (10%) had some fans too.

Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: A grand 69% said Wes Anderson will be winning his first Oscar for his “The Grand Budapest Hotel” script. “Birdman” was next in line at 23%, with 4% going for both “Boyhood” and “Nightcrawler,” respectively. “Budapest Hotel” won the “should” poll too, taking 52% of the vote. “Nightcrawler” followed with 19%, while “Birdman” (17%), “Boyhood” (8%) and “Foxcatcher” (4%) brought up the rear.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: One of the closest races of the night, 40% said “The Imitation Game” while 33% went with “Whiplash.” All the other scripts got win predictions as well, with “The Theory of Everything” taking 13% over “American Sniper” (10%) and “Inherent Vice” (4%).

Who Should Win: It might have only got a couple “who will win” votes, but people sure would be happy if Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Inherent Vice” script somehow upset. It took 55% of the vote over “Whiplash” (26%) and “The Imitation Game” (9%). 

Best Animated Film
Who Will Win
: With “The LEGO Movie” out of the picture, “How To Train Your Dragon 2” was free to collect 70% of the vote here. “Big Hero 6” was voters’ upset of choice at 20%, while “The Tale of Princess Kaguya” (7%) and “Song of the Sea” (2%) were represented as well.

Who Should Win: “Dragon” only took 19% of the picks of passion, with “Song of the Sea” narrowly topping “Princess Kaguya” 34% to 26% in the battle of the GKIDS movies.

Best Foreign Language Film
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Poland’s “Ida” led both
polls by a healthy margin, with 78% saying it will win and another 53%
saying it should. Russia’s “Leviathan” was next in line in both polls,
taking 9% of the “will win” vote and 20% of the “should win” vote. Only
Estonia’s “Tangerines” received no votes in either poll.

Best Documentary Feature
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Laura Poitras’ “Citizenfour” for the win. 87% said it would, and another 53% said it should. “Virunga” was the upset pick with 9% saying it would win, while all of the docs won support in the “should win” poll: “Finding Vivian Maier” (19%), “Virunga” (12%), “The Salt of the Earth” (9%) and “Last Days of Vietnam” (7%) all were favorites of some polled.

Best Cinematography
Who Will Win and Who Should Win:  It seems like a very safe bet to suggest Emmanuel Lubezki will win a second Oscar in a row for “Birdman” as a whopping 94% said he’d win. He also topped the should win poll, with 36% of the vote over “The Grand Budapest Hotel” and “Ida” (23% each).

Best Original Score
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Another crossover pick as 43% said Alexandre Desplat will and another 56% saying he should for “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” “The Theory of Everything” was runner-up in the “will win” poll at 34%, while “Interstellar” won second place among the “shoulds,” at 20%.

Best Original Song
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: “Selma” seems likely to get a consolation prize in the form of a win here for “Glory,” with 84% saying the song will win and another 45% saying it should. “Everything is Awesome” from “The LEGO Movie” was the runner-up in both regards, taking 7% of “will win” votes and 39% of “should win” votes.

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