Predicting the annual nominations of the Hollywood Foreign Press, an idiosyncratic group of 90 entertainment editors and writers who report on the film and television business for their outlets in 55 countries, is no easy task. They are wined and dined all year by publicists, and sent on studio junkets where they conduct round table interviews, and hang with stars at various parties. Many of these media folks consider themselves to be friends with the stars, because they have been covering them for so long.
That is why they make different choices than other “critic” groups. The relatively senior HFPA’s taste runs the gamut from sophisticated (“Carol”) to mainstream (“Black Mass”). But they also like celebrities to come to their Golden Globes Awards show in January (Leonardo Di Caprio, Matt Damon, Johnny Depp, and Jennifer Lawrence come to mind), which is by far the most fun night of the year in Hollywood. So that’s another factor.
The Golden Globes nominations will be announced Thursday morning, and will add momentum to certain races, without being at all predictive.
The Screen Actors Guild nominations, which were announced Wednesday morning, also add momentum. While the SAG nominating committee, which changes every year, tends to be a tad more mainstream than the Oscars, they are usually more predictive than the Globes, as they come from inside the film community.
So there are always some changes among the Oscar nominees from SAG and Globes—Academy voters always add some classy additions to the mix— but the winners are usually close. The SAG Ensemble award, especially, often presages the eventual Oscar Best Picture winner. “Spotlight” is supposed to win that one. Those who land noms from SAG alone are more likely to land an Oscar nod than from the Globes alone. Land both groups, and you have better odds of landing an Oscar slot. Those who get neither reduce their chances (more details here).
Veterans Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”), Charlotte Rampling (“45 Years”), Maggie Smith (“The Lady in the Van”), Michael Caine and Jane Fonda (“Youth”) and Ian McKellen (“Mr. Holmes”) may have better shots with the Academy than, say, comedienne Lily Tomlin (“Grandma”). Also with an Oscar advantage are late-breaking critics’ faves Paul Dano (“Love & Mercy”) and Kristen Stewart (“Clouds of Sils Maria”), who had no IFC awards campaign but will now get one.
GOLDEN GLOBE AWARD NOMINATIONS
Best Picture (Drama)
Best Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Best Actor (Drama)
Best Actress (Drama)
Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)
Best Actress (Comedy/Musical)
Best Supporting Actor
5. Mark Rylance “Bridge of Spies”
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Score
1. Ennio Morricone “The Hateful Eight”
2. Howard Shore “Spotlight”
3. Alexandre Desplat “The Danish Girl”
4. Carter Burwell “Carol”
5. Riuichi Sakamoto “The Revenant”
Best Original Song
Best Foreign-Language Film
1. “Son of Saul”
2. “The Second Mother”
Best Animated Feature
5. “Shaun the Sheep Movie”